WY Odds and Points ?? Creep

[Capra]

OK, my luck is horrible ill admit it.

BUT the good news is that I have 7 points for Antelope in Wyoming and it is time to burn them. For those of you who have been watching it. Does there appear to be point creep??

Or do the points required seem to hold somewhat steady

Thanks, Nate

 

[weaver]

Point creep is definitely real. Some units worse than others.
For this year I'm looking at units that took at least a point less last year than what I have going into the draw this year.

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[TheCougar]

Point creep is definitely real. Some units worse than others.
For this year I'm looking at units that took at least a point less last year than what I have going into the draw this year.

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I'm not sure if that is a good technique. I think there was a huge jump in applications for the mid-tier units as guys cashed their points in to avoid the price hike that takes affect this year. Some of the units I am looking at had a HUGE (6x) jump in the number of applications, particularly special draw applications, compared to historical data. I'm guessing, and hoping, that this was a one-time occurrence. I don't disagree that point creep needs to be taken into account, but watch out for large deviations from last year.

 

[Trial153]

I think lope points are still cheep enough that it won’t make a much difference. I don’t see a whole lot of creep coming in what your looking at, 7 point units....it anything you will see it in low point units as guys cash out or.... in just one off max point units as guys want to be sure to cash draw out and stay out.

 

[weaver]

I really hope you're right and I do believe that this last year was a bit of an anomaly but I have family that wants to cash in their points this year so I'm going to play it as safe as I can.

 

[Capra]

Thanks for the input, I was having a tough time trying to factor in the possibility that guys were cashing in last year ahead of the price increase.

Anymore it seems like my predictions are always off and no matter what the number of applicants is more t

 

[Jimss]

There are actually quite a few factors that come into play with point creep. The first is actually how many tags are issued in each particular unit. This obviously varies from year to year and unit to unit. High demand units that offer few tags and have a high percentage of public land generally take more pts to draw. Units with high percentage of private land and lots of tags can be super easy to draw just about every year. Total tag numbers fluctuate with antelope numbers. Winterkill, drought, predators, fawn recruitment, etc are all factors in determining tag numbers one year to the next. In any given year, one region of the state may have horrible winter losses vs a few counties over may be ok. These can fluctuate dramatically from one year to the next.

On the bright side most Wyo antelope units have seen a slow increase in tags the past year or 2. That obviously cycles more hunters through the system so point creep has slowly but surely decreasing in all but the high demand units in Wyo. A recent complication is the WG&F increased the price for applying for pref pts. More hunters seem to be trying to draw tags rather than just applying for pref pts because it's getting so darn expensive to apply. Even though tags may be increasing there may be more hunters applying for tags rather than applying for pref pts.

It's hard to say what will happen in future years. Obviously mild winters and high fawn survival will help pt creep. If there is back to back harsh winters or drought it will mean a drop in tags and higher pt creep. As other big game tags across the Western US become tougher and tougher to draw there tends to be more interest in hunting Wyo antelope.....which doesn't help point creep. Another thing that could potentially happen is as big game tags in Wyo become tougher and tougher for Wyo residents to draw....Wyo residents may complain and try to get a larger percent of the total antelope and other big game tags issued. My guess is that Wyo antelope tags will continue to be tough to draw in future years for both res and nonres.

 

[johnsd16]

This years draw will be interesting for sure. I had been watching a few units planning for this year then the word of the price hike came and that combined with tag cuts the last two years made the 2017 demand sheets tough to interpret. The unit we put in for this year was 100% draw with 2 points in the special in 2016 but in 2017 was 75% with <5, so over double the points. However, tags nearly doubled from 2017 to 2018 so with 4 points I am confident we will draw what we wouldn’t have last year, but would have easily in 2016. Individual units have interest and quality wax and wane, then quotas change, and then there are price changes that cause mass movements of applicants into the pool actually trying to draw vs just building points. The top tier units have some consistent creep.

 

[Jimss]

My guess is that this year will be somewhat similar to last year as a lot of hunters will try to draw tags and get out since it's getting so expensive in Wyo, Hopefully winters are mild and does have lots of fawns so tag numbers increase!

 

[TheTone]

I'm a bit scared. My wife and I will draw the tags we applied for with last years results/points, but it does worry me that people wanting out might drive it up. The other thing was seeing the unit mentioned in an eastman's article...

 

[johnsd16]

seeing the unit mentioned in an eastman's article...

You’re doomed!

 

[NDGuy]

The other thing was seeing the unit mentioned in an eastman's article...

Why do they have to go and do that?

 

[MallardSX2]

I know this is an older post but I scrolled through the draw results and noticed significant point creep this year in almost all units. Some units jumped by 3 points. Its hard to believe. Seems so weird to me. Does anyone think they will ever go to LQ for more of the state instead of general tags? Would this help or hurt in you guys opinion?

 

[Travis Bertrand]

I know this is an older post but I scrolled through the draw results and noticed significant point creep this year in almost all units. Some units jumped by 3 points. Its hard to believe. Seems so weird to me. Does anyone think they will ever go to LQ for more of the state instead of general tags? Would this help or hurt in you guys opinion?

It would help some and hurt a lot more. People would be able to draw mid tier tags easier but if you break up regions, some of those units would double in point value.

 

[NoWiser]

There are no general tags for antelope in Wyoming. Point creep will continue to be a scourge for the foreseeable future. Wyoming made it very easy to build points. It is convenient and makes the state a ton of money, but there is a price to be paid when it comes time to drawing a tag.

 

[Capra]

As afollow up, I thought that I had a pretty solid unit selection for my 7 points last year. It ended up taking 8 instead of the 7 I had.

I think that overall we can expect there to always be creep and if you want a tag you need to be looking at units under your number of points to have a legit shot at a permit.

 

[realunlucky]

You can't go by last year's draw odds alone you have to check how many applications are in your point category vs how many actual tags are for that unit. Of course you can not factor in variables like people moving units but it can be an issue when that unit is hot spotted as special or growing trophy class animals.

 

[pkp851]

OK, my luck is horrible ill admit it.

BUT the good news is that I have 7 points for Antelope in Wyoming and it is time to burn them. For those of you who have been watching it. Does there appear to be point creep??

Or do the points required seem to hold somewhat steady

Thanks, Nate

As a non resident hunter, myself and my group haven't noticed a point creep for the area we hunt but it has gotten harder to draw a tag. Most of my group of 8 applies with no points and all and typically we have 2 or 3 that don't get drawn where as 5 years ago, we all got draw.