2 Points Going to be Enough for WY

[TWP]

Hey guys,

Was wondering what you draw gurus are thinking about the general WY tags this year for a NR? Have two points each in a party of two, just curious what you guys think. This is the regular tag, not the special tag. They do have a type 9 tag in the area, not sure if that changes anything besides more bowhunters in the woods.

 

[Trial153]

You maybe, should be able to draw a Gen tag with 2...with this years changes though I think things will be in flux a bit till the prices set in.

 

[LaHunter]

Not sure. Elk point creep in WY has moved pretty fast over the past 4 years. Just curious, how many points were required for 100% draw odds last year? What about 2015 and 2016. I did a 4 year trend for the regular and special draw on the unit I've been planning to hunt and it was 'eye opening'.

Good Luck and hope you draw it

 

[philos]

The last page of the demand report for non-res elk reflects 2 points provide 100% first choice odds. The quota was 1131 and 1104 were issued.

Less than 2 (group where the average of all hunters is less than 2 full points) is 4.36% so it was possible last year with less than 2 but very unlikely

 

[nettereo16]

The last page of the demand report for non-res elk reflects 2 points provide 100% first choice odds. The quota was 1131 and 1104 were issued.

Less than 2 (group where the average of all hunters is less than 2 full points) is 4.36% so it was possible last year with less than 2 but very unlikely

Don't forget the random draw for those with less than 2. It was ~15% last year.

 

[efnm]

Exactly, I looked and last year was 14.5% to draw randomly. And only with 2 points were you guaranteed in the points draw, as mentioned above.

My guess is you can count on it with two points. I'm counting on drawing with two next year or having very good odds to at least.

 

[wapitibob]

Look at the number of apps at 1 and below plus those at less than 2; 4000 of them. Very unlikely 2 will be 100% this year. You can spend some money and get the actual breakdown of each point pool and the number of apps in each of its worth it to you. Takes a public info request.

 

[Tony Trietch]

I was looking at this as well. The tag price increase may scare a few non residents away but if not, I think it may jump to 3.

 

[TWP]

Yeah, that is what I was thinking as well. We'll see what happens.

 

[204guy]

Odds with 2 points will likely be under 50% this year. I am thinking right around 40%. Next year with 2 points will be in the teens. Point creep on the gen tag is screaming in WY.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

 

[ChrisS]

I read somewhere, maybe here, that with fee increase, there may be a fair amount of people abandoning the special draw and dropping into the regular. It'll probably be a crap shoot on forecasting odds right now. I'm not likely hunting out west this year, but I will put in for some hail mary's and if I draw, I'll hunt. Otherwise, it's just a point building year.