Montana NR elk tags

natepac7

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Hey guys would anyone happen to know the odds for just the Deer Combo? Planning a hunt out there and would like to know the odds, also would I need to buy the $50 preference point to draw? Thanks!


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Waiting on a reply from GoHunt on these odds as I can't find a spreadsheet through MT FWP that shows these odds which is how I cross referene everything I read on GoHunt, I like to know how the statistics are derived and then do my own calculations to figure out where I'm applying. GoHunt though right now is saying odds with 0 points from 2017 is 90% for NR Deer Combo, 95% for Big Game Combo, and 100% for Elk Combo. Now whether that means they purchased $50 for a preference point or not, had a point from last year and purchased one during the draw I don't know, it just lists these odds as all people had 0 points which can't be true.
 
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Big Game Combos had 0 left over last year and roughly 600 applicants that were unsuccessful
Deer License were sold out and about 1500 applicants that were unsuccessful
Elk Combos had approximately 2000 tags left over after the draw process
Bow hunter education isn't a requirement, per say, if you provide a bow hunting license from your home state. Not sure if that has anything to do with your question.

Do they just post these as general news then without a preference point calculation?

My big question is, if you purchase a $50 preference point does this count towards the current year general combo draw or does it mean you're purchasing one for next year if you don't draw? I'm guessing the former on that as I read it in the regs and it wouldn't make sense to spend $50 if it meant nothing if you drew.

From there what are the odds for the amount of folks who didn't spend $50 (70%?) vs the ones that did spend $50 (100%?)
 

natepac7

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Do they just post these as general news then without a preference point calculation?

My big question is, if you purchase a $50 preference point does this count towards the current year general combo draw or does it mean you're purchasing one for next year if you don't draw? I'm guessing the former on that as I read it in the regs and it wouldn't make sense to spend $50 if it meant nothing if you drew.

From there what are the odds for the amount of folks who didn't spend $50 (70%?) vs the ones that did spend $50 (100%?)

All good questions, hopefully GoHunt can answer. Montana does a pretty poor job of explaining it all and having the data available for the general tags


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204guy

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The preference point definitely goes to next year's draw. No state will let you purchase a point and use it in the same year. Basically you are awarded the point when you are unsuccessful in the draw.

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Here's what got me wondering when I was reading the regs...

"If you wish to take part in the Preference Point Program for your Combination License, make sure to check "YES" on the preference point question and include the additional $50 fee. If the box is not marked, you will receive your money back and go into the drawing as "no" preference points."

I don't know, Montana at face seems easy then you get into it and man, it starts to get very confusing.
 

Mi_fiveo

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The preference point goes towards this years draw if you buy it at the time of application, so it counts. The bonus point will be for next years draw.


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Bonus point is technically a bit of a hybrid (just like NV) if you want to call it that as if you’re going in with 4 points you get 16 chances + 1 you purchased giving 17 chances. Yes, it doesn’t square but it does get added to your pool as a single point.

Still waiting on GoHunt in regards to the preference point, thanks for chiming in on it!
 

Mi_fiveo

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2d12535b60d298fcc752dd1db5a67f1c.jpg

Boom


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realunlucky

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Montana is a screwed up system. You can draw and still buy points and even buy points before you draw.

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Mi_fiveo

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Last year 17600 people put in for elk and deer. Only 600 didn’t draw a tag. 2 preference points is a guaranteed general tag. In fact I wouldn’t even waste the $50 for a second point. Draw the tag and then buy a preference point later this fall for next year. My understanding is they haven’t closed that loophole yet.


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Well, they're trying to get in touch with MT FWP but are getting nowhere on the draw odds in regards to preference points, they're as frustrated as everyone else is. No transparency for these 17,000 tags right now.
 

natepac7

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So is it necessary to buy a preference point if I want to draw the General Deer? I know they only have 4600 of those available. I currently have zero preference points.


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natepac7

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Gotcha. Thanks for all the help on this, MT’s system is pretty damn confusing compared to Colorado!


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What about your #23 post...is that right that I’d still have a 90% chance at NR Deer Combo based on last year’s draw? Or you found out that’s incorrect?


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dtrkyman

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So preference points are automatic if you don't draw a specific unit and are accumulated over time, Bonus point increases odds but do not accumulate?

After applying for tags in several places my head is spinning!:eek:
 
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What about your #23 post...is that right that I’d still have a 90% chance at NR Deer Combo based on last year’s draw? Or you found out that’s incorrect?


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Black and white GoHunt says people with 0 preference points had a 90% draw odd. The problem is no one has the data (Not even GoHunt, they're looking into this) on how many people bought a preference point for $50 going into the draw or had a preference point already and bought another going into the draw effectively having 2 points and how many people didn't pay $50 at all and had 0 points. I doubt everyone went in with 0 points.

The likely scenario is that some people had two points, not a lot but some and they all drew 100%. I believe a good bunch bought a point during the app process and had fairly good odds but not 100% but probably more then 90% possibly, not sure. Then there was the group that didn't spend $50 at all and definitely had below 90%.

At the end of the day no one knows what the true odds are because as said before, there's no exact data available to showcase this.

My advice is spend $50 on the point if you really want the tag and give yourself the best odds possible so you have 1 point going into the draw as they give 75% of the tags to the highest point holders.
 
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