What statistics are the most important?

[gobears870]

I've been pouring over the elk harvest, herd, and drawing statistics for Colorado the past few weeks trying to plan a 2019 hunt. This would be our first and we're leaning towards a drop camp. The obvious stat that jumps out is the the success rate, but I know that's not solely what you should base your decision on (however, I'd lean a lot more toward something with 20% than 8%). I'm also looking at public acres per hunter and thinking about whether or not to use a preference point in the first hunt. Or I could just be overthinking it all and should just go where I find the best outfitter.

Longer term, I'd like to return to the same place several times for elk and mule deer so I'm looking mostly at tags that have 0-3 point minimums on each. I'm avoiding the OTC tags for a first attempt because of the pressure but would be interested to know what to look at in an OTC unit.

What numbers do yall look at and put the biggest emphasis on?

 

[LWC]

Miles to the nearest bar

 

[ericF]

I think you will find that statistics don't matter. You can go to that 8% area and if you know it and know what the elk are doing, tag out every year. Conversely you can go to a 30%, 40%, or even 50% area and have no luck year after year unless you figure out what is going on with the elk at that time of year. For your first elk hunt with a drop camp, it might be hard to go back to that same area year after year depending on how far in the outfitter packs you. The chances are that if it is a good area with easy access, then 100 other people have already figured it out.

So what do you do? Worry more about learning how to hunt elk your first year or two rather than necessarily learning where to hunt elk. If this is your first time, choose an outfitter that has good success rates and go and have a great experience and spend as much time in the woods as you can. Then the next year choose are area like you said that has a decent success rate with 0-1 points and start learning the area. Expect it to take a couple years before you figure things out, but as you get more experienced, success will come. There really is no better teacher than experience when it comes to hunting.

 

[Beendare]

Its not that stats don't matter.....so if comparing a 30% success rate area to a OTC unit with 6%....of course the 30% will be better hunting .

an OTC area with 5% vs 7% is essentially the same.

I look for the kind of country I like to hunt in. What you will find in many western states is distance from a TH helps a little...but it doesn't solve the hunter pressure thing as there are so many folks with horses and such.

Here is a big tip....and most guys still don't get it.
Its finding the pockets that hold elk thats the key. Remember, if you get to that great pocket at 11am...you probably won't know it when you see it.

i've been in areas with screaming bulls all morning....and then bumped into hunters cruising through at 10,11,noon....and they just keep going and don't come back as they don't hear or see anything.

 

[CX5Ranch]

Most important thing you can do to help insure success in the elk woods is be in top physical condition. No one appreciates this until they have to stop a quarter of the way to a bugling bull because taking one more step is physically impossible.

Don't worry about numbers. Get off the trail.

 

[idahohikker]

Some biggies: large amount of private land and large number of outfitted hunters. Both artificially increase success compared to the average hunter.

 

[kjack_74]

I've been pouring over the elk harvest, herd, and drawing statistics for Colorado the past few weeks trying to plan a 2019 hunt. This would be our first and we're leaning towards a drop camp. The obvious stat that jumps out is the the success rate, but I know that's not solely what you should base your decision on (however, I'd lean a lot more toward something with 20% than 8%). I'm also looking at public acres per hunter and thinking about whether or not to use a preference point in the first hunt. Or I could just be overthinking it all and should just go where I find the best outfitter.

Longer term, I'd like to return to the same place several times for elk and mule deer so I'm looking mostly at tags that have 0-3 point minimums on each. I'm avoiding the OTC tags for a first attempt because of the pressure but would be interested to know what to look at in an OTC unit.

What numbers do yall look at and put the biggest emphasis on?

Draw odds #1 ... I want to hunt, not plan to hunt. Then I look at success rate ... Want it in the 20% range or higher, generally speaking I assume I will hunt harder and longer then most and can take that 20% and turn it into 50-70%. Next I look at bull:cow/ buck:doe ratios trying to find something in the 20:100 area at or there about (will go lower if everything else lines up) and finally I look at how much public land there is and the access to it ... One access point means everyone is hunting the same area.

Sent from my XT1565 using Tapatalk

 

[5MilesBack]

The only statistic I care about is "how many people are in there". I hunt to get away from people. I don't care if it's 100% success stats, if there's a bunch of people in there.......I won't be.

 

[Beendare]

Draw odds #1 ... I want to hunt, not plan to hunt. Then I look at success rate ... Want it in the 20% range or higher, ......

^ Wow...please fill us in on the OTC or Gen units you are hunting every year with those kinds of success rates....I want in!

 

[TheTone]

Elk numbers, hunter numbers and amount of public land.

 

[kjack_74]

^ Wow...please fill us in on the OTC or Gen units you are hunting every year with those kinds of success rates....I want in!

20%? Lots of units have around a 20% success rate both OTC or single point units ... The higher number is my own personal one.

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[huntabsarokee]

What stats are the most important? Ones that I can believe. For CO that is not too many. I do look at harvest stats but they have to be significantly different to sway my decision. Also since I only archery hunt I look at 1st rifle stats as well. I figure if they are high those same bulls were there during archery season. Also look at % of public land, hunter numbers, and other seasons that may be running at the same time that will add more hunters to the woods. Try and find the biologist reports for your area like the 10 year DAU reports if they are current. If you pick a unit and then narrow down that unit just google the trails and mountains names in that area. If you come up with a bunch of ATV or 4X4 trails you may want to think about moving to a different part of that unit. 1 day when hunting in northern CO we were making a mid day drive out to re supply gas and water. We passed like 50 ATVs joy riding on the FS roads. Not sure I would have been wanting to hunt elk in that area.

 

[cnelk]

In Colorado, something to look at the leftover cow tags available each year.

Why? Because if there are DAUs with plenty of leftover cow tags, that means the elk herd is over-objective.

For you, that means plenty of cows, cows mean bulls and they are also good eating.

 

[ElkNut1]

Personally, I do not look at stats, too deceiving! I look for country that suits my strengths! Elk will die!

ElkNut/Paul

 

[bz_711]

It can definitely give you a headache...knowing what I do now, many give good advice on more picking a unit that suits you for terrain, location to amenities (or hospitals depending on who's in your party), public access...and most importantly crowds.

I hunt an OTC unit that many years ties for the lowest archery success rates...but still get opportunities. My one limited entry hunt was in a unit of 30+% archery success and I will say it was clearly noticeable how much easier it was to get into elk everyday. Some of this is also just due to being limited entry and only having 100 tags running around vs. unlimited OTC and maybe 500-1000 archers running around in a unit.

If I was starting from scratch, the stats at least help point you towards an OTC unit with higher success%, higher # of kills, and more tags available meaning there clearly is "more" elk than lower units. But most likely means more guys/camps...

Good luck with whatever you pick...and be prepared to be addicted...I think about elk hunting 365...

 

[jmez]

Elk numbers, hunter numbers and amount of public land.

This is what we look at as well as terrain and accessibility. Terrain/accessibility will directly correlate to hunter numbers in most units.

Unless there is a required check in on kills then success rates are meaningless. MT does random calls. 3-4 of us have hunted there for 6 years killing a minimum of 2 elk every year. We all buy deer tags as well.

Over that time span we have received a total of 3 game harvest calls, all on deer tags. None of the elk we have killed are included in their statistics. We only hunt deer if we see a really good one or if everyone tags out, and it isn't serious deer hunting. We've killed 2 deer in that time frame, none of which were killed in years we got calls. We skew the deer numbers both ways.