2017 AZ elk draw odds... what the hell happened?

[TheCougar]

Gohunt just dropped their draw stats from 2017. It’s eye watering. Every unit I looked at had a MASSIVE increase in resident and non-resident applicants for archery season. I’m an AZ resident with 10 points, and I went from a 92% draw odds down to a 12% draw odds for the unit I apply in. I’ve never seen anything like it. I looked at 7-8 units and they were all the same. I generally lost 2-3 years before I get back to where I was. I haven’t checked other states yet. Are other states the same? What in the holy hell just happened??????

 

[HuntHarder]

My unit has better odds on Archery bull. I use hunterstrailhead tho. Maybe gohunts data is messed up

 

[TheCougar]

I don’t know. TopRut shows it as well. I sampled 4 units that are good units and the increases on average were 20%, 30%, 50%, and 100% increase in resident apps (over 1000 apps increased in each unit). I happened to apply in the area with the 100% increase.

 

[2peterhunter]

Randy Newberg is now sponsored by Arizona game and fish. Coincidence?

 

[sneaky]

You can thank goHunt themselves for the point creep. Guys looked up units, switched points to ones they thought gave better draw odds, and boom, point creep. It's happened all across the board for the most part. Welcome to the double edged sword. You can do your research, but there's a price to be paid. A unit I was going to put in for this year dropped 50% on draw odds, over 60% since 2015.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

 

[Beendare]

I think its the draw change bro......and probably a little bit of the better economy giving guys more $$ in their pockets.

A couple years ago, if you were just starting on the points thing....you had a snowballs chance of drawing a tag- Zero...no chance at all.

so Az changed their system essentially screwing over a huge portion of the loyal applicants that had been applying for years...in many cases for over a decade. The 'New' draw system gives anyone a chance of drawing....though its still weighted and your chances with low points are very remote. But the new system also put more pressure on point creep with Non Res point holders by making the 10% of tags they were getting before to now much less...with the possibility of none. [thankfully that didn't happen yet but statistically its possible]

I was ranting about this before the change....many discounted it. The guys in the 6-12 point range got shafted- big time.

I decided to use my points in 2013...glad I did. A buddy with about the same amount of points DIDN't...and he has been unsuccessful every year now trying to draw the same unit with progressively more points.

 

[Jackalope]

There was a sign stating the error in the AZ game and fish office today. They’re working on it.

 

[wapitibob]

As I've said before, those odds reports mean nothing without the individual point pools. A short look at those pools will show hunts where the odds would drop significantly from 2016 to 2017 unless a bunch of people bailed.


unit 1 archery for example, 2016 nr odds were 100% with 15 points, sounds nice eh?
but... there were 24 apps in the 14 point pool so if those guys stayed in the odds now drop to 60 ish percent
19 guys stayed in for 2017 but 8 others with more points jumped in; only 7 of those 19 guys at 15 points drew, just over 30% odds.

Gohunt uses a trend line, TopRut shows the individual point pools. Take your pick but just looking at the "odds" doesn't tell the story.

 

[RoJo]

I think there may have been an issue with the published stat data from AZ G&F. The new reg booklet does not have the stat data for last year in it like it usually does. Apparently it did when they first posted it, I know of one person who downloaded the initial document before they removed the stats and saw issues with the numbers. So G&F must have realized there was an issue and posted a new copy without the stats. I assume they will repost with corrected stats when they fix the issue.

 

[wapitibob]

Gohunt and Toprut use data generated as the draw progresses. Different data than whats in the regs.

 

[sneaky]

The example I was using was from a Utah unit. AZ threw a wrench into a lot of plans when they changed their system.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

 

[swampokie]

Hunting is a dying sport! No recruitment. This is the kinda crap game agencies try to feed me. Quick shout out to toprut for screwing all of us who have done diligent research to uncover better draw odds. Every time I park at a trailhead or a public land duck hunting area and need a parking permit and follow 15 young duck commanders into the area I laugh at the bs notion that hunting is a dying sport!

 

[hflier]

I noticed the same. Thought I would draw this year, looks like it moved significantly.

 

[Drew@selway]

Limit technology with archery equip and watch those odds get much better. Doesn't take much to get proficient with a bow these days. Just my .02

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

 

[hflier]

I am going Archery


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[swampokie]

Limit technology with archery equip and watch those odds get much better. Doesn't take much to get proficient with a bow these days. Just my .02

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

Is that the reason that the archery tags are the hardest to draw in az?

 

[Drew@selway]

Is that the reason that the archery tags are the hardest to draw in az?

I knew thatd ruffle feathers LOL, I'm sure it's not the only reason, but with making it easier to become more proficient with archery tackle, it it's naturally going to lend itself to more people gravitating to it vs hunting with a rifle, since most archery seasons have optimum rut dates....

Don't mistake me for being some sort of archery snob, because that isnt the case, just stating an observation.

I know there are plenty of factors contributing to the shite odds in AZ.



Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

 

[Luked]

Gritty Bowmen podcast just had a podcast put out yesterday I think about the new AZ draw changes.
Brian had his Uncle on there who is an outfitter in AZ on the podcast explaining it. might be worth a listen.

 

[wapitibob]

Archery tags are a long way from the hardest to draw.

 

[ndbuck09]

Point systems to begin with are ridiculous and should be done away with (if it's even possible)

I would put out the notion that the draw odds sites are increasingly not helping hunting. And these companies have a solid vested interest in keeping the points systems in place since it basically keeps them in the hunting industry. Then you have all the guys sponsored by these said companies and voila! you have a situation where the populace of the hunting community is fed the line that these things are a great help and invaluable to our hunting heritage...

There is no reason simple random tag draws don't work. The playing field would most definitely be level that way. Thank God for Idaho!