Points strategy

[ckleeves]

You can google how it works. It's honestly to confusing to try to explain. Basically after 3 everyone has a chance. Points gain you a very small advantage as you accumulate them. They are essentially a participation trophy for sending your money in every April lol. (Just kidding on that one) There is no "high points draw" and you will often see a guy with 1 weighted draw over a guy with 18 weighted.


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[TexanSam]

View attachment 49826
, now I have a conversation piece for the 15 hour car ride to Texas next weekend for Hog Hunting!

Where at in Texas?

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[jray5740]

Muenster, Texas. Been in the works for a while and had to put the trip off two years ago due to my dad drawing a Moose tag in Colorado. He shot a really nice bull with a muzzleloader, took forever to pack out. Last year put off for some weddings so I've been patiently waiting for a while now haha

 

[b.purcell]

If your not putting in in MT, something is wrong. We give out more sheep tags, and have the biggest sheep in the country. now only 10% of the tags go to NR but even with that there is still a chance you can draw with no points. Its happened to me, twice- once for moose and once for sheep. the bonus point thing is cool but having max points doesn't guarantee you anything, just puts your name in the hat that many more times. every year people with few or no points will draw. Dont get your hopes too high, a shit load of people put in for the tags, but in the end someone has to draw right? do your research and look at the last three to five years of drawing stats and see which districts have given tags to NR with low points. OR take a month off and go hunt the unlimiteds. just some food for thought

 

[TreeWalking]

You can google how it works. It's honestly to confusing to try to explain. Basically after 3 everyone has a chance. Points gain you a very small advantage as you accumulate them. They are essentially a participation trophy for sending your money in every April lol. (Just kidding on that one) There is no "high points draw" and you will often see a guy with 1 weighted draw over a guy with 18 weighted.

*****

Math is real. Unless a flawed software algorithm.

Let's look at an example. Say I have 3 + 14. The 14 in effect gives me 14 chances to draw a ball out of the hat. Say you have 3 + 7. My odds are 2x your odds. However, we are not the only two in the drawing. If the population of applicants has only a few at 14 points and higher but lots are in the 7 and under pool then odds are some of the low point applicants will be drawn as the lower point total applicants IN TOTAL control more balls than the 14ers (pun about the peaks) so while I have a better chance than you...I do not have a better chance vs. all the applicants in the lower pools.

So, tags will be spread around but if you figure out the total balls by point class for all NR applying for CO bighorn and compared then would be able to project how many sheep tags are expected go to guys at 3+1, 3+2, etc. Is better to be in the highest pool as an applicant.

Let's now look at NV. They square points. Yippee! No, dang. That is bad for a Year 1 applicant. Your odds actually fall for the first 15 years of so while you apply for elk as a NR. What? LIAR, you say. The reason is there are very few elk tags for NR in NV. So few applicants are drawn that point creep is happening even if is harder to "see" without taking a lot of hours to punch in the raw data for several years and see what the AVERAGE point total of all successful NR elk applicants. Take the two applicants from CO and assume one has 14 point s and the other 7, just like CO. The 14 point applicant does not merely have 2x the odds at the 7 point guy but is 4x better since squared means 49/196 rather than 14/7. You also get one point in the year you apply as square prior year points so is really 50/197 but now I just lost the last couple of you still reading.

How many more years before the higher point applicant merely has 2x? Another decade. With the point creep due to slow churn of the NR elk applicant pool then the result is the upper 1/4 of the applicant pool expands much faster than the lowest 1/4 of the pool. The Big Bang is Year 1 in the point scheme. Just one max point applicant has the same odds as the combined odds of hundreds of new applicants. A new applicant gets 1 ball in Year 1, 2 in Year 2, 5 in 3, 10 in 4, 17 in 5. The guy with 20 points the year a new applicant begins had 401 that year and next year has 442 so got 41 more balls vs 1 more ball for 2nd year guy. A lot of folks in the upper 1/4 got 41 more while recent applicant got 1 more. Over time some of those upper 1/4 are drawn and the middle 1/4 today become the upper 1/4. As the dust settles, your odds improve vs anyone with few points but in total can fall vs. entire number of balls in the NR elk draw pool. You see your odds improve around Year 15.

 

[TexanSam]

You can google how it works. It's honestly to confusing to try to explain. Basically after 3 everyone has a chance. Points gain you a very small advantage as you accumulate them. They are essentially a participation trophy for sending your money in every April lol. (Just kidding on that one) There is no "high points draw" and you will often see a guy with 1 weighted draw over a guy with 18 weighted.

*****

Math is real. Unless a flawed software algorithm.

Let's look at an example. Say I have 3 + 14. The 14 in effect gives me 14 chances to draw a ball out of the hat. Say you have 3 + 7. My odds are 2x your odds. However, we are not the only two in the drawing. If the population of applicants has only a few at 14 points and higher but lots are in the 7 and under pool then odds are some of the low point applicants will be drawn as the lower point total applicants IN TOTAL control more balls than the 14ers (pun about the peaks) so while I have a better chance than you...I do not have a better chance vs. all the applicants in the lower pools.

So, tags will be spread around but if you figure out the total balls by point class for all NR applying for CO bighorn and compared then would be able to project how many sheep tags are expected go to guys at 3+1, 3+2, etc. Is better to be in the highest pool as an applicant.

Let's now look at NV. They square points. Yippee! No, dang. That is bad for a Year 1 applicant. Your odds actually fall for the first 15 years of so while you apply for elk as a NR. What? LIAR, you say. The reason is there are very few elk tags for NR in NV. So few applicants are drawn that point creep is happening even if is harder to "see" without taking a lot of hours to punch in the raw data for several years and see what the AVERAGE point total of all successful NR elk applicants. Take the two applicants from CO and assume one has 14 point s and the other 7, just like CO. The 14 point applicant does not merely have 2x the odds at the 7 point guy but is 4x better since squared means 49/196 rather than 14/7. You also get one point in the year you apply as square prior year points so is really 50/197 but now I just lost the last couple of you still reading.

How many more years before the higher point applicant merely has 2x? Another decade. With the point creep due to slow churn of the NR elk applicant pool then the result is the upper 1/4 of the applicant pool expands much faster than the lowest 1/4 of the pool. The Big Bang is Year 1 in the point scheme. Just one max point applicant has the same odds as the combined odds of hundreds of new applicants. A new applicant gets 1 ball in Year 1, 2 in Year 2, 5 in 3, 10 in 4, 17 in 5. The guy with 20 points the year a new applicant begins had 401 that year and next year has 442 so got 41 more balls vs 1 more ball for 2nd year guy. A lot of folks in the upper 1/4 got 41 more while recent applicant got 1 more. Over time some of those upper 1/4 are drawn and the middle 1/4 today become the upper 1/4. As the dust settles, your odds improve vs anyone with few points but in total can fall vs. entire number of balls in the NR elk draw pool. You see your odds improve around Year 15.

Right now I'm just hoping that I'll be physically able to hunt longer than anyone else who is accumulating points somewhere. Either that or my brother in Alberta becomes a guide or introduces me to a girl who likes to hunt up there lol.

Who knows, maybe someday the sheep population will grow enough to allow for a substantially larger number of tags. I mean look at wild turkeys, antelope, heck even elk in some places. Their populations dipped pretty low before and now numbers are on the rise. Heck the snow goose had strict limits if I remember correctly a long time ago and now they want you kill as many by any means possible each spring.

I know that there is a more likely chance that I will go to Mars than any of that happening in my lifetime, but I'm young, not married, am about to graduate, and held a decent paying full time job through college, so the way I see it is that if I'm going to dream of anything, I'd rather be able to look back and say that I at least blew some air on the weak ember of that dream instead of just throwing a bucket of water on it and went on with my life.

 

[TexanSam]

Muenster, Texas. Been in the works for a while and had to put the trip off two years ago due to my dad drawing a Moose tag in Colorado. He shot a really nice bull with a muzzleloader, took forever to pack out. Last year put off for some weddings so I've been patiently waiting for a while now haha

Hey that's pretty close to me! Send me a PM when you're here! You'll have a blast. We get all the hogs we can handle so be sure to leave no survivors lol

 

[TreeWalking]

Right now I'm just hoping that I'll be physically able to hunt longer than anyone else who is accumulating points somewhere. Either that or my brother in Alberta becomes a guide or introduces me to a girl who likes to hunt up there lol.

Who knows, maybe someday the sheep population will grow enough to allow for a substantially larger number of tags. I mean look at wild turkeys, antelope, heck even elk in some places. Their populations dipped pretty low before and now numbers are on the rise. Heck the snow goose had strict limits if I remember correctly a long time ago and now they want you kill as many by any means possible each spring.

I know that there is a more likely chance that I will go to Mars than any of that happening in my lifetime, but I'm young, not married, am about to graduate, and held a decent paying full time job through college, so the way I see it is that if I'm going to dream of anything, I'd rather be able to look back and say that I at least blew some air on the weak ember of that dream instead of just throwing a bucket of water on it and went on with my life.

If an applicant can afford $1000 to $2000 a year to roll the dice and have a way to front $10,000 or more in tag deposits and are able to pay for a tag if drawn that can run over $1000 then the long odds chase for a non-resident ram tag or mountain goat tag or moose tag is a fine hobby and you can apply in most of the Western states that offer those tags. I skipped CA as is "up to 1 sheep tag" as an example.

Beats the heck out of gambling, boozing and chasing skirts...especially for a married guy like me. I have been doing this for over two decades and have drawn and filled non-resident tags for mountain goat (AK), mountain goat (CO), bull moose (ID), bighorn ewe (CO) and aoudad ram (TX, actually a drawn permit to shoot unlimited invasive species on the state park). My older brother has drawn two desert rams, a rocky ram and a bull moose. The cumulative costs are such maybe are better off instead saving for a purchased hunt. I enjoy the research to figure out what tags to apply for and then opening up to see results. Like having a birthday 10 times each spring and early summer. A birthday that has crappy presents most of the time but man, oh man, to see "successful" or "drawn" next to a great tag is a heck of a gift.

 

[huntstrong2850]

Everyone of these forum post is always the same ol bs lol... People trying to deter others from trying to get in the points game and send them to Alaska or Canada in turn basically trying to keep one more guy out of the drawings. These post happen 3-5 times a year at least.
While you may spend your entire life applying and never drawing a sheep tag you could just as easily in New Mexico, Idaho, Arizona, Utah, Wyoming, Oregon, Montana and Nevada draw a sheep tag in under 10 years in every single one of those states. Anyone who truly desires and wants to sheep hunt doesn't give a crap about those odds of never drawing. It's something you really want or it isn't. You don't care about the money thrown away in non refundable fees, raffle tags, WSF membership, etc... if any of that bothers you at all that you'll be losing all this money for odds as bad as the powerball then sheep aren't for you. Every app I fill out and submit for a sheep tag I do it with a smile, you may only kill one sheep in your life but you'll make more money everyday you go to work. I'll take that sheep over your money in the bank any day.


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[R_burg]

research the difference in Bonus points and Preference points. Preference points will likely do you no good in a state like Wyoming. unless you want to wait till you are 80 to hunt even starting in your 20's. bonus points are your best bet. mathematically possible to draw with zero points in those states and with every year getting more points your odds go up that much more. I'd listen to NoWiser and start saving for a dall hunt in Alaska or Canada. if you pencil it out you probably spend over $1000 a year in applications fees and point fees and most likely will still wait 20 years to draw a tag. Wyoming has decent odds on the units that issue a random tag. Colorado is a good idea but you know you have to send in the full fee up front in the form of a check/money order. no credit cards for sheep moose or goats in Colorado. Arizona is a good one as most of their NR tags are issued in the random pools. I'd research Nevada more if I were you. and don't listen to everyone about Idaho being the best odds in the west. it is if you are a resident but not a NR. when you take into account that you have no idea which unit will have a NR tag in it you are spending a lot of money for a lot of uncertainty I don't know if its worth it IMO.

If someone could expound on the part that I bolded...

Are you guys saying that regardless of what the "draw odds" for points are, as shown on GoHunt (or whatever resource you use) the issue is that there is such a backlog of people with points and such few NR tags that what takes 18-20 yrs now is going to take exponentially more years going forward?

 

[Molon Labe]

If someone could expound on the part that I bolded...

Are you guys saying that regardless of what the "draw odds" for points are, as shown on GoHunt (or whatever resource you use) the issue is that there is such a backlog of people with points and such few NR tags that what takes 18-20 yrs now is going to take exponentially more years going forward?

You are correct. Look at the number of people with max pts in WY and then the number of tags available.
Going off memory but there are a couple thousand max pts and ever increasing as you slide down pt scale.
As an example look at CO which has been pref points for much longer...

 

[R_burg]

You are correct. Look at the number of people with max pts in WY and then the number of tags available.
Going off memory but there are a couple thousand max pts and ever increasing as you slide down pt scale.
As an example look at CO which has been pref points for much longer...

Wow, I just looked at CO. I see what you mean.

And as a NR, once you finally draw a tag you are probably going to get a guide anyway, as you dont want to miss your once in a lifetime tag... my point is that just adds to the cost.

I see why dropping 20k in Alaska or BC seems more logical now. Especially since I can do that hunt while I am still young enough to really handle it well.

 

[Kimbersig]

Are you guys saying that regardless of what the "draw odds" for points are, as shown on GoHunt (or whatever resource you use) the issue is that there is such a backlog of people with points and such few NR tags that what takes 18-20 yrs now is going to take exponentially more years going forward?[/QUOTE]


Molon Labe is right on. and yet another reason why go hunts and huntinfool are such POS. they have ruined draw odds across the west and don't tell the whole story on actual odds because they want you to use their application services and consulting.

 

[R_burg]

Molon Labe is right on. and yet another reason why go hunts and huntinfool are such POS. they have ruined draw odds across the west and don't tell the whole story on actual odds because they want you to use their application services and consulting.

Well, if people with 18 pts are currently drawing, thats not GoHunts fault. The onus is on me to the research to figure out what the numbers really mean.

Regardless, this thread is very helpful. Thanks guys.

 

[TEmbry]

I used to be one of the naysayers.... But then I drew Colorado Archery Ram tag this year with zero weighted points at 26 years old. The odds are crap no matter where you apply (for the record, I apply in CO, AZ, NV, ID, UT... and will likely add NM and MT next year). But the saying is true, you can't draw if you don't apply.

It is my form of gambling for the year. And it paid off early.

 

[Gunnersdad49]

Math is real. Unless a flawed software algorithm.

Let's look at an example. Say I have 3 + 14. The 14 in effect gives me 14 chances to draw a ball out of the hat.

I believe this is incorrect. My understanding was this: If there is a 3 minimum point requirement to draw, and you have 3+14 weighted, you get an entry with the first 3, plus the 14 weighted, for a total of 15 chances.

Looking at the regulations booklet today, it states this: "10. WEIGHTED PREFERENCE increases your probability of drawing a moose license. It is calculated by converting your application number into a different application number, then dividing that new number by the number of weighted points you have, plus one. This generates another new application number. Applications are sorted by this new number from lowest to highest and low numbers for each hunt code are awarded licenses.
You can have a maximum of three points for moose. If you have three and you fail to draw a first-choice license, you receive weighted preference for moose."

Leave it to government to make sh*t up in order to prevent anyone from fully understanding how it works.

 

[Gunnersdad49]

So in summary, it's magic.

1) your application number is magically changed to a new random number
2)Dividing the new magic random number by the number of weighted points you have
3)calling the answer to that a NEW (third) application number.
4) the lowest numbers on the NEW (third) application number list get tags.

So, if your magically generated New number is 50,000 instead of 100, it doesn't matter if you have 200 preference points, you are screwed.

 

[ckleeves]

I believe this is incorrect. My understanding was this: If there is a 3 minimum point requirement to draw, and you have 3+14 weighted, you get an entry with the first 3, plus the 14 weighted, for a total of 15 chances.

Looking at the regulations booklet today, it states this: "10. WEIGHTED PREFERENCE increases your probability of drawing a moose license. It is calculated by converting your application number into a different application number, then dividing that new number by the number of weighted points you have, plus one. This generates another new application number. Applications are sorted by this new number from lowest to highest and low numbers for each hunt code are awarded licenses.
You can have a maximum of three points for moose. If you have three and you fail to draw a first-choice license, you receive weighted preference for moose."

Leave it to government to make sh*t up in order to prevent anyone from fully understanding how it works.

That's is incorrect, and that's not my post that's quoted. Not sure why it's showing up as mine.

 

[Gunnersdad49]

Yeah, that was TreeWalking that stated that initially.
My initial understanding, and I believe Tree Walking's understanding are both incorrect.

The quoted portion beginning with "10. Weighted" is taken directly from Colorado Parks and Wildlife.

 

[ckleeves]

Yeah, that was TreeWalking that stated that initially.
My initial understanding, and I believe Tree Walking's understanding are both incorrect.

The quoted portion beginning with "10. Weighted" is taken directly from Colorado Parks and Wildlife.

Yep it's a strange system for sure! Quite a few people think that every weighted point is another name in the hat.


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