2021 Montana Non-Res Combo Preference Point Statistics

[ninthunt]

Just took a look at the 2021 MT preference point drawing statistics for the nonresident combination licenses and it looks like the odds for draw if you had 1 preference point were less than if you had zero preference points for all the types of licenses. This is obviously due to the sheer number of people applying with one preference point, but does this entail that your odds will be greater this year with zero points instead of one? Looks like this is the first year that this has worked out this way. If the number of applicants keeps increasing and this becomes the norm, MT will have to change how they do this.

 

[bsnedeker]

I would assume so. Montana gives out a certain number of tags specifically for people with zero points....they don't reserve any for people with 1 point.

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[ninthunt]

I would assume so. Montana gives out a certain number of tags specifically for people with zero points....they don't reserve any for people with 1 point.

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So you're saying they have a certain amount of tags set aside for each preference point level? That would make sense based on the drawing results of last year. I'm guessing the amounts for those with 0 or 1 point are determined by the amount of leftovers after the drawings of those with 2 and 3 points.

 

[bsnedeker]

So you're saying they have a certain amount of tags set aside for each preference point level? That would make sense based on the drawing results of last year. I'm guessing the amounts for those with 0 or 1 point are determined by the amount of leftovers after the drawings of those with 2 and 3 points.

Not quite. Montana sets aside a certain number of tags (not sure about the number/percentage) for people with ZERO points...they set nothing aside for anyone else.

The idea behind it is that it gives people who are new to hunting in MT some chance of drawing their first year. It's kind of silly in my opinion, but that's how it is.

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[ninthunt]

Not quite. Montana sets aside a certain number of tags (not sure about the number/percentage) for people with ZERO points...they set nothing aside for anyone else.

The idea behind it is that it gives people who are new to hunting in MT some chance of drawing their first year. It's kind of silly in my opinion, but that's how it is.

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Yea, that makes no sense. More points should equal greater odds no matter what! I'm guessing there will be greater odds at zero points again this year, but you miss the chance of applying with two points the following year if you're unsuccessful. Decisions, decisions...

 

[ArcherAdam]

There should be ~4250 tags for non-residents with 0 points right?

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[ninthunt]

Looks like 6,724 tags were awarded to those with 0 points last year across all big game combo licenses. I was not one of them

 

[Legend]

There should be ~4250 tags for non-residents with 0 points right?

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Yes. I believe they hold 25% for the zero point holders.

 

[ninthunt]

Yes. I believe they hold 25% for the zero point holders.

That is correct. 6,724/Total number of tags successfully drawn(26,889) = 25%

 

[Silveroddo]

Listened to the changes in Montana on the huntin fool podcast, they mentioned if you don't buy a preference point and go into the draw with zero, and didn't draw that you would be unable to buy a point afterwards. Still trying to understand that one, if you didn't draw wouldn't you receive a preference point for putting in and not drawing?

 

[Flatgo]

montana also did the outfitter handout last year that could be skewing non resident tag draw with 0 points too

 

[NDGuy]

Easy solution stop hunting in MT and go elsewhere.

 

[Sccritterkiller]

I think it will all come out in the wash in couple yrs as folks loose points for not applying every other year. The new reg will catch some folks...

 

[Will_m]

Looks like the general tag in MT is becoming the next OTC Colorado.

 

[NDGuy]

I think it will all come out in the wash in couple yrs as folks loose points for not applying every other year. The new reg will catch some folks...

For sure.

All that needs addressing is the 0 point people not getting a point if they are unsuccessful or having a % of the allocation automatically.

 

[Peregrine1]

Question for MT guru: For group applications, if I want to hunt both elk/deer and buddy only wants to hunt elk, one of us has to make a compromise right? IE., no combining big game combo with elk combo in group applications?


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[Erict]

Question for MT guru: For group applications, if I want to hunt both elk/deer and buddy only wants to hunt elk, one of us has to make a compromise right? IE., no combining big game combo with elk combo in group applications?


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Correct. Direct from the 2022 regulations guide, page 14:

Party Applications
• In Montana, a “party” means a group of 2-5 persons applying together to obtain a license or permit. If successful, each hunter must harvest their own game.
• All party members must select the same opportunity type and bonus or preference point participation.

 

[Erict]

montana also did the outfitter handout last year that could be skewing non resident tag draw with 0 points too

The outfitter handout was in addition to the regular allotment, so it should not have skewed these numbers.

 

[Peregrine1]

Correct. Direct from the 2022 regulations guide, page 14:

Party Applications
• In Montana, a “party” means a group of 2-5 persons applying together to obtain a license or permit. If successful, each hunter must harvest their own game.
• All party members must select the same opportunity type and bonus or preference point participation.

Thank you very much


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[Erict]

Just took a look at the 2021 MT preference point drawing statistics for the nonresident combination licenses and it looks like the odds for draw if you had 1 preference point were less than if you had zero preference points for all the types of licenses. This is obviously due to the sheer number of people applying with one preference point, but does this entail that your odds will be greater this year with zero points instead of one? Looks like this is the first year that this has worked out this way. If the number of applicants keeps increasing and this becomes the norm, MT will have to change how they do this.

MT NR draw odds using PP will likely follow the order 3, 2, 0, 1 for the foreseeable future. It could possibly go to 3, 0, 2, 1, but in any case I think 1 PP will always be the lowest chance of drawing. Remember, for NR, 75% of licenses go to those with PP, 25% to those with zero PP.

Lastly, MT does not HAVE to change anything, and, frankly, their legislature has made enough changes for now.