AK Sheep, Population Observations

[z987k]

Is there a graph that shows R and NR sheep tags sold like the harvest data graph?

For 19C, 38 residents hunted in 2022, 56 NR. 3 and 26 were successful respectively.

Harvest Reports, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Alaska Department of Fish and Game

secure.wildlife.alaska.gov

 

[Trial153]

I think there is to much assumption that this going to be short term trend based on recent winter conditions vs the recent winter conditions becoming more and more the new baseline.

 

[Htm84]

I find it to be an awfully strange coincidence that sheep harvest is trucking along just fine and then precipitously drops off in 2020 which is, of course, the year Covid hit and travel became restricted plus peoples wallets took a hit so plans to hunt sheep that fall changed in a dramatic way. But then, harvest doesn’t come back even though everyone becomes a hunter and sheep hunts become the most important thing to do in the World. What’s up with that other than aliens landed and stole the sheep when people took a year off from sheep hunting.

A hard winter in 11/12 or 12/13 if I recall correctly. Killed a lot of the lambs. Flash forward to 2020 and on when all those lambs would have been legal rams and they’re just not there. Not everything in life is some grand conspiracy.

 

[TWHrunner]

Sure, it’s not all a conspiracy theory, especially if you have those data from back in 2013 that there was a major reduction in lamb count. But if you’re saying it now “retrospectively” that's called hand waiving, and worse than a “conspiracy theory” from the perspective of science. So, if you have those data, please show them. I’ll be the first to agree if they exist.

 

[Htm84]

Sure, it’s not all a conspiracy theory, especially if you have those data from back in 2013 that there was a major reduction in lamb count. But if you’re saying it now “retrospectively” that's called hand waiving, and worse than a “conspiracy theory” from the perspective of science. So, if you have those data, please show them. I’ll be the first to agree if they exist.

https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/research/wildlife/speciesmanagementreports/pdfs/dallsheep_2011_2021_smr_gmu_19b_19c.pdf

 

[Jasper]

The Alaska Department of Fish and Game presented this information to the Alaska Board of Game in October 2022. The pdf answers several of the questions asked above, including resident and nonresident hunter numbers, and historic sheep population trends in a few selected areas across Alaska.

https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/regulations/regprocess/gameboard/pdfs/2022-2023/sheep/adfg-presentation.pdf

 

[MBN]

2012/2013 - Hard winter/spring lambs took the worst of it
2014 - 2013 lambs would be 1.5 yr old in Fall
2015 - 2.5
2016 - 3.5
2017 - 4.5
2018 - 5.5
2019 - 6.5
2020 - 7.5 Bad winter/Spring. Entering legal rams/entering vulnerable ages of natural mortality even on good yr
2021 - 8.5 Horrible winter/Spring. Now legal rams/Into vulnerable ages of natural mort even on good years
Past 2 winters hard all sheep especially young and old huge loses in last 2 winter/springs
2022 - 9.5 Low numbers of young sheep and legal rams, Low ewe numbers = low lamb numbers
2023 -10.5 2nd decent winter/spring hoping for another.

If we have some decent winters I think that it will actually get better for a few years and then get worse for a few years for legal rams. For the sheep born in 2015-2019 that had the best chance to survive the 2 bad consecutive winters will make it into there expected years but we will see a drop again for the lambs that didn't make it the spring of 2020 and 2021.

Time and decent weather years....

 

[diamond10x]

The Alaska Department of Fish and Game presented this information to the Alaska Board of Game in October 2022. The pdf answers several of the questions asked above, including resident and nonresident hunter numbers, and historic sheep population trends in a few selected areas across Alaska.

https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/regulations/regprocess/gameboard/pdfs/2022-2023/sheep/adfg-presentation.pdf

Nice to see them looking at population trends as a whole and not just a snapshot of the last 20 like so many have.

Not saying we shouldn’t be concerned by any means but it’s always good to get as much info as possible and not just most recent.

 

[Bambistew]

There was 5 rams killed in 19c last fall. I'm unsure of total hunter numbers as they don't don't get tallied until the spring. If I was going to guess, total hunter numbers will be down, but I doubt it will be that much of a drop. Total hunter numbers averaged around 2,300-2,400 for 2013-2020, then declined to 2,000 in 2021, 1800 in 2022, and I'd guess we'll be around 1700 this year. Many of the people I knew that sat out last year, hunted this fall. Almost all of them were unsuccessful.

 

[AlBeartoe]

I think surveyed and projected sheep numbers strongly influence hunter participation. AK sheep numbers are down and so is OTC participation. I know exactly how hard a sheep hunt is when the population is up. With numbers down the last 2-4 years I've sat a few years out entirely to spent time hunting other critters I otherwise don't have time for when I dedicate 10 days to a sheep hunt. I have hunted unit 20 for many years and the drop in legal rams and sheep in general is staggering. I believe in the ADF&G biologists though and don't think we need to implement any more regulations than the current full curl reg. On any given year, regardless of hunter success, we are taking ~2% of the entire population. If the AK sheep population is struggling it is not the human hunters that are driving the decline.