Molon Labe
WKR
- Joined
- Feb 17, 2017
- Messages
- 649
So I have noticed a lot of posts that ask about building points and what state to start applying.
What state should I build points in? What is the best state for odds of drawing?
I wanted to put down a thread that someone can look at and with some simple math be able to figure out what works best for them.
So here goes...
When looking at all the states I apply into and the ominous point creep and cost of applying increasing I came up with a strategy that may make sense to a lot of people out there.
Lets call it the perceived value approach to hunting tags.
What I mean by perceived value approach: you take the amount you spend and divide that by your odds/probability of drawing. This will spit out a number that you will then compare to what you would be willing to pay for that same tag in a landowner tag program type scenario or in the case of raffles what you would pay for the governors tag.
First thing I look at is the cost of applying into the state and what species that I am applying.
Lets use WY for example:
The annual license cost is 12.50 and cost per application is 15.
Lets say you apply for 6 species in WY so the cost per species is roughly $17 (12.50/6)+15)
Now you have the PP cost per species as well:
Elk 52, deer 41, antelope 31, goat 150, moose 150, sheep 150
Add the species cost to each of those and you have the cost to apply in a given year for that species.
Now you take the odds of drawing the tag you want to hunt and divide that into the species cost to come up with a perceived tag value. Make sure to calculate the species cost correctly...if you only apply for one species it will drive the perceived cost up considerably.
Example 1: Deer creek archery elk
Would require 9pts to draw last year and random draw odds are 2.2%
So this year if you apply for that tag you will be in the random draw so the tag cost would be $3136 ($69/.022)
You have to decide if hunting that unit for elk in WY is worth the 3136 and do you see that tag as more value than that?
If you keep applying into WY for this tag and there is only a couple points of creep and you draw it at 11pts.
Your total cost for that tag is $707 (tag cost as of this year) plus $759 for the 11 years at $69/year.
So you are paying $1466 for that tag guarantee in 11 years.
The problem is on these type of units you may experience more creep than that and you could be chasing this tag well into the 20s...see CO UT etc.
Example 2: WY sheep
So the cost of applying for sheep is $17+150pp cost = 167/year
If you are just starting out or have less than 18pts you will have no shot at a guaranteed sheep tag in WY...you will never catch the max pool.
Now the random draw odds are roughly .3% for a sheep tag in WY depending on the unit you could do worse or improve slightly.
Take the $167/.003 and you have a perceived value in that tag of $55,667.
So is that tag worth $55K or would you rather go on a fully guided bighorn hunt, buy a few great rifles and pay for a family vacation for that same money?
I had another post over in the sheep forum explaining to people that you would be better off taking your money and going to vegas and playing roulette every year than applying for sheep in WY now that they bumped up PP cost.
Example 3: UT elk
Utah cost 85 for the license and you can split it every two years by timing your application dates so for this example we will use 42.50/year and then $10/species point. If you apply for 6 species then it costs you roughly $17/point per species. Very inexpensive state to apply in!
Lets say you have your heart set on Book Cliffs Bitter creek archery with 1pt is has .41% chance of drawing.
Your first year this tag has a perceived value of $4146. Once you have been applying for roughly 17 years you would pull max point pool. But there is going to be point creep and may take 40+points by the time you are in max point pool. Cost of 17/year x 40 years and you have a tag cost of $680. Well worth the wait? Maybe when you account for your perceived tag cost going down every year as you gain points in their draw.
Example 4: AZ elk raffle
Raffle ticket cost is $25 and the odds of drawing are 0.015%. So that raffle tag/governors tag has a perceived value of $166,667. Would you be willing to pay that for a governors elk tag in AZ? I wouldn't and therefore will not be buying a raffle ticket for elk in AZ.
Example 5: MT sheep raffle
Raffle ticket cost is $5 and the odds of drawing are .0048%. So that raffle tag/governors tag has a perceived value of $104,000. Would you be willing to pay that for a governors sheep tag in MT? I would hope so because they go for over $300K every year at the sheep show. I will be buying a couple tickets for this raffle!
Example 6: AZ mule deer 12B rifle tag
The cost of applying in AZ is 160 license and you can do two years if you time it correctly so 80/year plus 15/point.
So lets say you apply for 6 species in AZ the per species cost is $32.
The odds of drawing the 12B tag your first year are .10%. The perceived value of that tag is $32,000. But that cost goes down every year as you gain bonus points. In year 15 you will have .6% chance and that means $5,333 perceived value. But like most hard to hit units you will never been in max point pool and will just take a mid tier tag at some point instead of waiting 30+years to draw this unit.
Example 7: OR sheep unit 64 (only sheep tag in OR last year)
*I don't apply for Oregon so these numbers may not be correct*
Cost of applying is $167/year and I am not sure if there is an ap fee or point cost. So we will just say that it costs $28/species if you are applying for 6 species.
The sheep tag has a perceived value of $15,555 if you apply for 6 species or $93,333 if you are just applying for sheep.
I don't do Oregon because the cost is too much comparing to other states for elk/deer/antelope etc. And doesn't make sense to just apply for sheep if the perceived cost is over 90K!
I could go on and on with this and I am just pulling these numbers off my 2018 excel sheet for my hunt applications.
Many times you will be better off just saving up money and booking a hunt every once in a while or purchasing landowner tags than to keep on pouring money into a broken state application system. There are a lot of states and/or species that you would be better off just buying lottery tickets or playing roulette. Meaning the return on your "investment" will never be positive.
The whole point is not to discourage people from applying but to get people to spend their money correctly. And maybe reduce the number of "is it worth it?" posts.
What state should I build points in? What is the best state for odds of drawing?
I wanted to put down a thread that someone can look at and with some simple math be able to figure out what works best for them.
So here goes...
When looking at all the states I apply into and the ominous point creep and cost of applying increasing I came up with a strategy that may make sense to a lot of people out there.
Lets call it the perceived value approach to hunting tags.
What I mean by perceived value approach: you take the amount you spend and divide that by your odds/probability of drawing. This will spit out a number that you will then compare to what you would be willing to pay for that same tag in a landowner tag program type scenario or in the case of raffles what you would pay for the governors tag.
First thing I look at is the cost of applying into the state and what species that I am applying.
Lets use WY for example:
The annual license cost is 12.50 and cost per application is 15.
Lets say you apply for 6 species in WY so the cost per species is roughly $17 (12.50/6)+15)
Now you have the PP cost per species as well:
Elk 52, deer 41, antelope 31, goat 150, moose 150, sheep 150
Add the species cost to each of those and you have the cost to apply in a given year for that species.
Now you take the odds of drawing the tag you want to hunt and divide that into the species cost to come up with a perceived tag value. Make sure to calculate the species cost correctly...if you only apply for one species it will drive the perceived cost up considerably.
Example 1: Deer creek archery elk
Would require 9pts to draw last year and random draw odds are 2.2%
So this year if you apply for that tag you will be in the random draw so the tag cost would be $3136 ($69/.022)
You have to decide if hunting that unit for elk in WY is worth the 3136 and do you see that tag as more value than that?
If you keep applying into WY for this tag and there is only a couple points of creep and you draw it at 11pts.
Your total cost for that tag is $707 (tag cost as of this year) plus $759 for the 11 years at $69/year.
So you are paying $1466 for that tag guarantee in 11 years.
The problem is on these type of units you may experience more creep than that and you could be chasing this tag well into the 20s...see CO UT etc.
Example 2: WY sheep
So the cost of applying for sheep is $17+150pp cost = 167/year
If you are just starting out or have less than 18pts you will have no shot at a guaranteed sheep tag in WY...you will never catch the max pool.
Now the random draw odds are roughly .3% for a sheep tag in WY depending on the unit you could do worse or improve slightly.
Take the $167/.003 and you have a perceived value in that tag of $55,667.
So is that tag worth $55K or would you rather go on a fully guided bighorn hunt, buy a few great rifles and pay for a family vacation for that same money?
I had another post over in the sheep forum explaining to people that you would be better off taking your money and going to vegas and playing roulette every year than applying for sheep in WY now that they bumped up PP cost.
Example 3: UT elk
Utah cost 85 for the license and you can split it every two years by timing your application dates so for this example we will use 42.50/year and then $10/species point. If you apply for 6 species then it costs you roughly $17/point per species. Very inexpensive state to apply in!
Lets say you have your heart set on Book Cliffs Bitter creek archery with 1pt is has .41% chance of drawing.
Your first year this tag has a perceived value of $4146. Once you have been applying for roughly 17 years you would pull max point pool. But there is going to be point creep and may take 40+points by the time you are in max point pool. Cost of 17/year x 40 years and you have a tag cost of $680. Well worth the wait? Maybe when you account for your perceived tag cost going down every year as you gain points in their draw.
Example 4: AZ elk raffle
Raffle ticket cost is $25 and the odds of drawing are 0.015%. So that raffle tag/governors tag has a perceived value of $166,667. Would you be willing to pay that for a governors elk tag in AZ? I wouldn't and therefore will not be buying a raffle ticket for elk in AZ.
Example 5: MT sheep raffle
Raffle ticket cost is $5 and the odds of drawing are .0048%. So that raffle tag/governors tag has a perceived value of $104,000. Would you be willing to pay that for a governors sheep tag in MT? I would hope so because they go for over $300K every year at the sheep show. I will be buying a couple tickets for this raffle!
Example 6: AZ mule deer 12B rifle tag
The cost of applying in AZ is 160 license and you can do two years if you time it correctly so 80/year plus 15/point.
So lets say you apply for 6 species in AZ the per species cost is $32.
The odds of drawing the 12B tag your first year are .10%. The perceived value of that tag is $32,000. But that cost goes down every year as you gain bonus points. In year 15 you will have .6% chance and that means $5,333 perceived value. But like most hard to hit units you will never been in max point pool and will just take a mid tier tag at some point instead of waiting 30+years to draw this unit.
Example 7: OR sheep unit 64 (only sheep tag in OR last year)
*I don't apply for Oregon so these numbers may not be correct*
Cost of applying is $167/year and I am not sure if there is an ap fee or point cost. So we will just say that it costs $28/species if you are applying for 6 species.
The sheep tag has a perceived value of $15,555 if you apply for 6 species or $93,333 if you are just applying for sheep.
I don't do Oregon because the cost is too much comparing to other states for elk/deer/antelope etc. And doesn't make sense to just apply for sheep if the perceived cost is over 90K!
I could go on and on with this and I am just pulling these numbers off my 2018 excel sheet for my hunt applications.
Many times you will be better off just saving up money and booking a hunt every once in a while or purchasing landowner tags than to keep on pouring money into a broken state application system. There are a lot of states and/or species that you would be better off just buying lottery tickets or playing roulette. Meaning the return on your "investment" will never be positive.
The whole point is not to discourage people from applying but to get people to spend their money correctly. And maybe reduce the number of "is it worth it?" posts.
