Are we in a hunting bubble?

[dreamingWest]

It definitely feels like a bubble to me. I know a group of guys in their mid-20s that readily admit they didn't even consider hunting in general (much less hunting out west) until they were a few seasons into MeatEater on Netflix. To be fair, mid-20s to 30s is probably the natural time frame for eastern guys to start that journey.

I doubt the bubble ever burst though simply because of population increase. Well, unless the game animals themselves bust.

 

[ramses342]

I am not a complete hipster but I am someone original from a large liberal city who did not hunt growing up, or shoot a gun until I was 25. No one I know hunted growing up and it was not even on my mind until I moved somewhere more rural and started thinking about more ethical ways of eating meat and wildlife conservation.

I really think people like me are good for hunting because we can talk to people in the large city bubbles where we are from or live about hunting. If you don’t want every state with a large city to go the way of New Jersey and ban bear and other kinds of hunting it is people like me I think can help the cause a lot. The bottom line is 5% of US adults 16 or older in 2018 are hunting according to the US fish and wildlife.

Ballot box biology is going to the be future like what is happening in Colorado with wolves or what happened in Oregon where hunting cougars with dogs got banned via ballot measure. I think getting people involved in hunting who did not grow up hunting will help preserve it. That my perspective as a adult onset hunter at least.


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[OMB]

It definitely feels like a bubble to me. I know a group of guys in their mid-20s that readily admit they didn't even consider hunting in general (much less hunting out west) until they were a few seasons into MeatEater on Netflix. To be fair, mid-20s to 30s is probably the natural time frame for eastern guys to start that journey.

I doubt the bubble ever burst though simply because of population increase. Well, unless the game animals themselves bust.

I went and saw Rinella a couple of years ago when he was in Ohio. There were 10 guys sitting at my table, and only 2 of us had grown up hunting, the rest were "adult onset." I do think there's something to this, but I really do think once the Boomers age out in 10 or 15 years, there's probably going to be a pronounced shift of people out of the sport.

 

[vanish]

I really wish I could find the graph, but Colorado app numbers dropped by like 25% back in 2008 / 2009. That shows you that yes, the economy does have an impact on hunters. I don't know what the NR vs R breakdown was during that period.

What I am seeing right now is an overall trend downward in R numbers ( compared to population ) and a significant uptick in NR across the country. I attribute the latter to social media, lower barrier to entry due to technology and the economy.

I think the uptick in NR is giving the illusion that there are more hunters. I believe it is more that the hunters we have are hunting more places, more often. Hunting "casually" is certainly more difficult than it used to be.

 

[Jwilson]

Yes. On the backend of it but not because of economics. The millennial generation appears less likely to get involved in the future

 

[Jwilson]

Though I will add that millennials seem to be more concerned with how,where, etc their meat is sourced from.

 

[hutty]

Interesting take on the question with some numbers.
Western Tag Draws Unfazed by Hunting’s National Decline

Western Tag Draws Unfazed by Hunting’s National Decline

The U.S. hunting population fell by about 1 million between 2006 and 2016, but the nation’s relentless shedding of baby-boomer hunters the past decade has done nothing to boost the odds of drawing coveted elk or muley tags in Western states. And make no mistake: We aren’t even discussing...

www.themeateater.com

"Jim Heffelfinger, wildlife science coordinator for the Arizona Game and Fish Department and a research scientist at the University of Arizona, notes that his state had about 90,000 applications for about 45,000 deer tags this year, and 115,500 applications for 25,400 elk tags.

You can lose a lot of your fellow hunters and still have a tough time drawing a tag,” Heffelfinger said. “And the tags many people are really interested in drawing, the ones that often cause the loudest complaining about not getting drawn, those might never loosen up.”

 

[travelert]

All the stats (and simple observation) point to drastically dropping hunter numbers nationwide, but when I look at draw applications for archery New Mexico and Alaska I see the numbers of applicants soaring! Maybe it's just bow hunts, maybe its just the units I look at... Maybe one day I'll want to put in for a unit with dropping applicants and increasing odds!

 

[Rangerpants]

I think a huge portion of the problem of increased applications and hunting pressure is simply a numbers game. Since 2010, the US population is up by around 22 million people. If only 5 percent of people in the overall population hunt, that's 1.1 million more hunters. Since 2000, as a county we are up 50 millions people, for an added 2.5 million hunters (at a 5% hunter rate).

In the face of this trend, the number of animals available to those hunters is unlikely to rise much, and will more likely decrease since all those new people need to live somewhere, eat, work, and recreate. Quality habitat disappears or is fragmented due to housing developments, oil and gas development, added farmland, and other land uses like golf courses all the time. The more the population increases, the more all these land use decisions are going to be made at the expense of wildlife.

I'm sure there are some decisions that state fish and game departments have made that haven't helped the situation, but the underlying numbers and trends are hard to do much about.

 

[HONEYBADGER]

Applications were up again in New Mexico this year, as they have been nearly ever year for the last 10 years. Anyone who tells you hunting is dying is lying to you. Nearly every state breaks application records year after year after year. Even with all the screwed up stuff Wyoming did with elk apps this year, I bet they end up being up in apps. The numbers don't lie, applying for tags is more popular than ever across the west.

 

[vanish]

Non-Resident application numbers are the wrong thing to look at when judging the popularity of hunting across the country as a whole. The increase in NR apps is do to an increased commitment level of those already involved in hunting. You need to look at Resident license numbers compared to the population, and that's been shown time and time again to be decreasing.

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Hunting is not dying.

CASUAL hunting is dying.

You know, Uncle Jack who showed up at the cabin for opening weekend of deer season, the rifle in hand shot once in the last 4 years, most likely to get hammered.

Uncle Jack isn't going to apply in 10 western states.
Uncle Jack isn't walking out the back door and hunt the neighbor's back 40 because it is leased.
Uncle Jack isn't going to hunt public land by himself.
Uncle Jack isn't going to be invited to your $4000 hunting lease.

 

[Rangerpants]

Non-Resident application numbers are the wrong thing to look at when judging the popularity of hunting across the country as a whole. The increase in NR apps is do to an increased commitment level of those already involved in hunting. You need to look at Resident license numbers compared to the population, and that's been shown time and time again to be decreasing.

-------------------------

Hunting is not dying.

CASUAL hunting is dying.

You know, Uncle Jack who showed up at the cabin for opening weekend of deer season, the rifle in hand shot once in the last 4 years, most likely to get hammered.

Uncle Jack isn't going to apply in 10 western states.
Uncle Jack isn't walking out the back door and hunt the neighbor's back 40 because it is leased.
Uncle Jack isn't going to hunt public land by himself.
Uncle Jack isn't going to be invited to your $4000 hunting lease.

Vanish, I think that's a very good point. I used to know some folks who just hunted ducks, or upland game, or just went to the family deer camp a weekend a year. Not so any more. People are either in it all the way, or quitting the game. Sad state of affairs.

That said, I stand by my numbers assessment. Even if actual numbers of hunters is decreasing, which I concede might be the case, the loss and fragmentation of viable habitat is a reality we all need to be aware of. I'm a big proponent of donating to nonprofits that buy, protect, and restore habitat because of this trend.

 

[SonnyDay]

Well I guess we get to see how a major economic crash is going to affect how many hunters hit the woods. Stating the obvious here... but recessions impact the less wealthy much harder than the wealthy. In many cases, recessions allow the wealthy to gobble up more assets (large chunks of western land, stocks and bonds, vacation homes, cars, golf courses, etc.) at bargain prices... as they have the reserves to ride it out until the good times return. And when that happens, they are even further ahead of the lower/middle classes. Our tax laws make it ever-easier to stay wealthy once you are wealthy... which combined with rampant development will leave us with a select few able to hunt the "King's Woods". OK, back to teaching my kids how to hunt...

 

[Mosster47]

We are in a population bubble which will pop in the next 20 years.

There are a ton of Boomers and there were a lot of hunters in that generation. In 20 years they will be gone or at least gone from the hunting ranks.

Then with Gen X, Millenials, and so on each of those following generations have less hunters. It's just obvious the number of hunters will decline, but with technology and weapon improvements the success rates will continue to improve meaning the same tag scarcity and high NR prices. On paper these next 5-10 years should be most tag holders we will ever see, then it will start declining long term.