Bonus Points

Joined
Feb 29, 2012
Messages
3,507
Location
Washington
Im having a hard time following the logic of reduced odds with more points a year later? More than willing to admit I dont know what I dont know, but Math and Stats are a significant part of my education and career and I cant seem to come to the same conclusion about reduced odds. Can you explain?

On a side note, even though I have max points in some states and very few in others.....overall I personally like the bonus point systems of some states over the random of others. In my mind yes that means you wait many years to draw if ever.......but I consistently hear people argue in their daily lives that their seniority at work or their years of doing "X" mean something which should give them privilege over someone else with less seniority or less years doing "X". If that is a sound argument to daily lives, shouldn't that logic and reasoning be applied everywhere?

Its a hard pill to swallow, for me personally, that say a 17 year old draws a Ram tag in a completely random drawing when his dad and grandfather not to mention thousands of other people spent their whole lives trying and never got one.......to me, this lone example is enough for me to support a bonus point system over a completely random system.

Have you ever seen a graph of exponential growth? Math doesn’t lie. Your individual odds go down because the denominator (the total applications) is growing at a faster pace than the numerator (your applications). Squaring bonus points is fools gold.


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Life_Feeds_On_Life

Lil-Rokslider
Joined
May 16, 2017
Messages
262
Location
AZ
I don’t put in for the top AZ units but I have been buying non res elk points for 15 straight years plus the loyal point and the non res hunter safety point and still have never drawn an AZ elk tag. If I ever do draw I am done with the AZ point game. Between point creep and game and fish changing the way they want to do the draw without any concern for guys with a lot of years and $$$$ in ....IMO...not worth it anymore.
I don't see how you haven't drawn by now unless you're putting in for rifle rut hunts or top tier archery hunts.
 

Tmac

WKR
Joined
Mar 16, 2020
Messages
765
Location
South of Portland
Im having a hard time following the logic of reduced odds with more points a year later? More than willing to admit I dont know what I dont know, but Math and Stats are a significant part of my education and career and I cant seem to come to the same conclusion about reduced odds. Can you explain?

Ditto. I think he is missing the fact that with my high points my part of the numerator growing faster even if low point holders are coming in. I could be wrong, and am not going to take the time to do a mathematical proof. Just my sense based on my training and understanding of exponential growth, it impacts both sides of the fraction in this case. Because I am ahead in points, my share on the top line grows exponentially too. My actual odds do not grow that fast or in actuality much at all, but they grow.
 
Joined
Feb 29, 2012
Messages
3,507
Location
Washington
Ditto. I think he is missing the fact that with my high points my part of the numerator growing faster even if low point holders are coming in. I could be wrong, and am not going to take the time to do a mathematical proof. Just my sense based on my training and understanding of exponential growth, it impacts both sides of the fraction in this case. Because I am ahead in points, my share on the top line grows exponentially too. My actual odds do not grow that fast or in actuality much at all, but they grow.

Your individual odds get worse year over year. On a relative basis, they do get slightly better compared to someone else with lower bonus points.

But do you really like a system that allows for your individual draw odds to march towards zero? The total population (squared) is simply growing too fast for your individual squared points to keep up.


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Tmac

WKR
Joined
Mar 16, 2020
Messages
765
Location
South of Portland
Your individual odds get worse year over year. On a relative basis, they do get slightly better compared to someone else with lower bonus points.

But do you really like a system that allows for your individual draw odds to march towards zero? The total population (squared) is simply growing too fast for your individual squared points to keep up.


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The total population is not squared. Each point holders points are squared, then added together for the base. For example, 1 squared is what? I believe you may have it wrong, but as in all things I may be wrong. But, no, I am not a fan of most point systems.
 
Joined
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Messages
3,507
Location
Washington
Meh - English. I didn’t actually mean the entire denominator is squared. Yes the individuals are and they are squared and then added. Your odds still get worse every year. I would love to be wrong though.


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Tmac

WKR
Joined
Mar 16, 2020
Messages
765
Location
South of Portland
Meh - English. I didn’t actually mean the entire denominator is squared. Yes the individuals are and they are squared and then added. Your odds still get worse every year. I would love to be wrong though.


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lol. It’s late. I’m not going to try and pencil it out. You are probably right. Good luck in the $#%&@* draws.
 

jray5740

Lil-Rokslider
Joined
Apr 9, 2017
Messages
280
Location
Colorado
Have you ever seen a graph of exponential growth? Math doesn’t lie. Your individual odds go down because the denominator (the total applications) is growing at a faster pace than the numerator (your applications). Squaring bonus points is fools gold.


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Ok so I understand your logic.....I see where your correlating exponential growth to "odds" of outcome. When the discussion is boiled down to unknown reality, it works exactly like the lottery and someone buying extra lotto tickets. SO.... exponential growth doesn't apply in an actuarial statistics scenario......let me explain haha

The odds of winning the Powerball or similiar lottery for millions of dollars is roughly 1 in 282 million. These are slim odds, however is does not matter how many tickets are sold every week for the drawing......the odds are always 1 in 282 million. For example if you are the only person who buys a lottery ticket this week, you still have a 1 in 282 million chance to win.

Now apply that to tag drawings where the outcomes are known (tag allotment), and applications (or in the example lotto tickets) are always the unknown. You have to make the assumption that there will always be more applicants than sheep/goat/moose/etc tags available. Once that assumption is made, the next piece of data which must be stricken is % draw odds and it must be replaced with 1 in "x" chance. This is a must from a statistical standpoint because the Ho has to be tested and the Ha is the known (tag allotment). For example sake, lets say that in Colorado 200 applications take place for 1 tag in a unit in 2018, 585 applications take place for 1 tag in a unit in 2019, and 496 take place for 1 tag in 2020. This is not necessarily a 1/200, 1/585, and 1/496 "draw odds" like exponential growth analysis would indicate. This number is always closer to 1 in 13,000 "chance" from an actuarial standpoint.

Yes the percent draw that everyone looks at here is what guides most decision making and arguments, however, the statistical analysis is much different. Once the actual lotto chance of winning, or tag chance of drawing numbers are established........there is only one way to increase your "chance" to be drawn, and that is more tickets in the lottery. HOWEVER, every ticket or squared bonus point or application always has the same odds of 1 in 13,000 or in the Lotto example 1 in 282 million...........you just have several more chances to achieve these odds.


So in a nutshell since I cant figure out how to show the mathematical equations on the thread, you will always have a roughly 1 in 13,000 chance to draw a sheep tag if you apply in just one state and its a random draw. You will always have a roughly 1 in 13,000 chance to draw a tag if you apply in all the sheep states and have max points in all those states.....the only thing you or any of us can do to increase chance is take more chances to be that 1 in 13,000.....whether that is squared bonus points, raffle tickets, ect. EVERY raffle ticket, draw application, etc always has the same chance of being drawn.....I just want more chances to be that 1!

Here is the factorial equation for you to mess with if you care to do so. This will give you that 13,000 or in the lotto example 282 million chance. n!/r!(n-r!). In this equation, r=total number of raffle tix, applications, etc (IE-chosen chances). n=total number of possible outcomes. ! is the factorial.

This is why states chose to report in % draw odds in lieu of "chance". Because when reported as %, everyone thinks they have a 1% give or take odd of drawing. In reality you have a .000077 chance that any one of your entries will be the correct entry. AGAIN.....the only way to increase chance in more chances in the draw. It has zero to do with how many more or less people apply, or how many points they have. It has EVERYTHING to do with how many chances everyone takes to be the 1 in 13,000.

Hope this helps!

PS-so not to confuse, you can never raise that 1 in 13,000 to 2 in 13,000 or more.......it dosent work that way!
 
Last edited:

jray5740

Lil-Rokslider
Joined
Apr 9, 2017
Messages
280
Location
Colorado
Ditto. I think he is missing the fact that with my high points my part of the numerator growing faster even if low point holders are coming in. I could be wrong, and am not going to take the time to do a mathematical proof. Just my sense based on my training and understanding of exponential growth, it impacts both sides of the fraction in this case. Because I am ahead in points, my share on the top line grows exponentially too. My actual odds do not grow that fast or in actuality much at all, but they grow.

See above sir
 

jray5740

Lil-Rokslider
Joined
Apr 9, 2017
Messages
280
Location
Colorado
The total population is not squared. Each point holders points are squared, then added together for the base. For example, 1 squared is what? I believe you may have it wrong, but as in all things I may be wrong. But, no, I am not a fan of most point systems.

Hope this helps
 

Tmac

WKR
Joined
Mar 16, 2020
Messages
765
Location
South of Portland
Jray, a difference between a lottery and a hunting draw is the hunting draw will award a tag every time, a lottery will not. In a hunting draw, I do not need an exact match of a number series. If 100 people put in for one tag, each of whom has one chance, and we know the tag will be awarded, it is a 1/100 chance, or 1% odds of success, is it not?
 

jray5740

Lil-Rokslider
Joined
Apr 9, 2017
Messages
280
Location
Colorado
Jray, a difference between a lottery and a hunting draw is the hunting draw will award a tag every time, a lottery will not. In a hunting draw, I do not need an exact match of a number series. If 100 people put in for one tag, each of whom has one chance, and we know the tag will be awarded, it is a 1/100 chance, or 1% odds of success, is it not?

TMAC-so your correct that a lottery dosen't guarantee a winner and a tag drawing does....and thus could create the argument that number of applicants in comparison to number of available tags would be a logical interpretation.

Just to clarify I'm not saying your wrong and I'm right......just providing information to help clarify different interpretations for all. In a drawing when looking at X drawing X amount of tags, this can only be analyzed retroactively. In other words my crystal ball is not good enough to foresee how many applicants with how many points will apply in the same unit or state or whatever that I am going to apply in.....therefore my crystal ball cant tell me what my draw odds are.

All I can know for certain is before all applications are complete, most states will display the amount of tags available for a specific hunt code or area. With that information, the statistical analysis turns to a lottery type (chance) analysis vs an "odds" analysis. In this case, due to the vast options an applicant has and the ability for applicants to switch draw areas each year in combination with raffles and drawings......the best case scenario of "chance" to draw is that 1 in 13,000 I talked about above.

Now again, once the draw is complete, you can look at % odds and determine what your odds (%) WERE THE MOMENT the draw took place, but you can never know odds (%) before the draw takes place and thus "chance" is the only complete perspective to have before a draw. For example, Vegas describes "odds" when in reality they are describing "chance", because odds would be a retroactive analysis and chance is a precursor to an unknown event.

Now applying a Ho and a Ha based off of numerous years past draw results and the retroactive statistics associated, one can make an educated inference that % draw will stay consistent which in that case an exponential grow result would indicate a % odds outcome. However, looking back at records in the times I have tried to do such analysis, I can never pinpoint the Ha with enough certainty to clarify or test an Ho positive or negative (accept or decline) outcome and thus have never weighed into much of this theory. If your willing to take standard deviations outside of normal range to accept an Ha, you could come into a range of out puts (Ho) that would generate a % odds outcome, but it will vary vastly IE-1% to 9% range for example which wouldn't do too much good for you to base decision off of.

Sorry to ramble, maybe this will help or not. Either way I hope the best for everyones draw results!!!
 
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