Can Colorado OTC Elk Last Forever?

[Ultraheight]

I don't want to start a firestorm here (sure it will anyway), but as we lose habitat and Elk hunter numbers continue to increase, how much longer will Colorado be able to offer large swaths on its units as OTC rifle tags? These elk herds are amazingly resilient, and many somehow grow despite insane hunter pressure, harvest, tough winters, and natural predation. But on a decades-long timescale, are we just counting down slowly to all of these units eventually going to draw? Is this level of hunting sustainable in the long run? Will a day come when this old reliable option is no longer in the back (or front) pocket? Looking for informed answers based on conservation models etc.

 

[Jtelarkin08]

No especially if they keep closing units. Only hope for it to work is opening units so that it spreads people out. Closing units gives the option for the same number of otc hunters to hunt a smaller number of units. Gonna start turning into a shit show.


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[WRM]

Nothing you will think is "good" ever lasts forever.

I stayed at an HI express last night.

 

[Laramie]

It is sustainable. Colorado's model works because as hunting pressure increases, success rates plummet. To date, that hasn't hurt their license sales but eventually there will be a balance, or at least a yo-yo effect. Too many licenses sold, few people shoot elk. Hunter numbers decline (theoretically) to the point that success rates increase and the cycle goes again.

The elk herd itself really doesn't fluctuate that much even though hunting pressure dramatically increases. The hunting stinks in general but people still line up to pay the fees. Why not continue to make a pile of money all while keeping elk herds at close to range carrying capacity?

 

[Ultraheight]

No especially if they keep closing units. Only hope for it to work is opening units so that it spreads people out. Closing units gives the option for the same number of otc hunters to hunt a smaller number of units. Gonna start turning into a shit show.


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Interesting point, but then that would in theory downgrade the trophy potential in these units that would be opened up.

 

[Ultraheight]

It is sustainable. Colorado's model works because as hunting pressure increases, success rates plummet. To date, that hasn't hurt their license sales but eventually there will be a balance, or at least a yo-yo effect. Too many licenses sold, few people shoot elk. Hunter numbers decline (theoretically) to the point that success rates increase and the cycle goes again.

The elk herd itself really doesn't fluctuate that much even though hunting pressure dramatically increases. The hunting stinks in general but people still line up to pay the fees. Why not continue to make a pile of money all while keeping elk herds at close to range carrying capacity?

I fear that it would not work as a supply and demand curve, folks will still have population estimates in hand, the thought that they are more clever/tougher than everyone else, and a willingness to blow a week of PTO and 2K to DIY hunt elk in Colorado, just to get out of the house. I think there is likely an endless reservoir of mid-westerners who get tired of sitting for whitetails and want to try their hand at elk (not a knock against you guys).

 

[WRM]

I fear that it would not work as a supply and demand curve, folks will still have population estimates in hand, the thought that they are more clever/tougher than everyone else, and a willingness to blow a week of PTO and 2K to DIY hunt elk in Colorado, just to get out of the house. I think there is likely an endless reservoir of mid-westerners who get tired of sitting for whitetails and want to try their hand at elk (not a knock against you guys).

I think you are closer to the "truth" on this one. It's never "endless summer" once you start seeing what's started in this world--it has become an industry.

 

[Laramie]

I fear that it would not work as a supply and demand curve, folks will still have population estimates in hand, the thought that they are more clever/tougher than everyone else, and a willingness to blow a week of PTO and 2K to DIY hunt elk in Colorado, just to get out of the house. I think there is likely an endless reservoir of mid-westerners who get tired of sitting for whitetails and want to try their hand at elk (not a knock against you guys).

But is has, and continues to be, a supply and demand curve. Elk are extremely elusive making this system work. Hunters will only kill so many elk. Nonresident hunters will only put up with so many unsuccessful hunts. Social media reports start to paint a bad picture and attention is steered elsewhere- temporarily. Success rates on public are as low as 1% for some hunts yet people keep buying the tags. I have witnessed this yo-yo for 30 years. Interest is definitely up right now but repeat hunters in these OTC units aren't as high as one might think.
It is sustainable as a model. The real question is will Colorado continue to offer the hunts? As new big game managers replace old ones, new ideas are created. New bean counters replace old bean counters, etc... They continue to offer them because the model is working- but it's no guarantee they stick with it. Resident pressure to provide better opportunities will be the driving force of change if it happens.

 

[WRM]

Counterpoint

But I do HOPE it lasts.

 

[MallardSX2]

It will all collapse when they make crossguns legal in the archery season. I foresee that change in the future and THAT will be the beginning of the end of it.


I also think that having a split OTC Archery season will also happen in the future.

OTC Archery Sept 1-15
OTC Archery Sept 16-20

I wish this change would have happened years ago to be honest.

 

[MAndrews]

As with most things in life nothing good or bad lasts forever.

 

[CO_MTN_GUY]

I'm not sure how long it will last, but CPW loves that money so they will keep selling tags for the foreseeable future.

 

[GunsAreFun]

I don’t think the current model is sustainable if participation continues to grow, but CO loves those license fees and since when have our governments cared about sustainability (check out that debt clock ). The herd and the hunting experience is going to suffer more and more over time.

I don’t love the idea of everything going to a draw, but I think there is a middle ground where most people can hunt every year but it’s not a total free for all. Some of the other states have better systems, albeit a bit complicated.

Or maybe they can stock the elk like fish lol.

 

[CO_MTN_GUY]

I don’t think the current model is sustainable if participation continues to grow, but CO loves those license fees and since when have our governments cared about sustainability (check out that debt clock ). The herd and the hunting experience is going to suffer more and more over time.

I don’t love the idea of everything going to a draw, but I think there is a middle ground where most people can hunt every year but it’s not a total free for all. Some of the other states have better systems, albeit a bit complicated.

Or maybe they can stock the elk like fish lol.

Maybe OTC with caps could be a solution. A certain amount of OTC tags and once they are all sold no more. But that would probably more chaotic than leftover day when they go on sale lol

 

[sndmn11]

I am with @Laramie on this. In many units the goal harvest numbers are still not met despite an increasing number of hunters. Every single year, there are public land elk tags leftover after the season ends.

If the argument is then to become the hunters want a "higher quality" hunt, I think decision makers will look at the numbers and stand on a flat or increasing number of license sales to deny that.

I do think they need to start limiting OTC licenses to be valid in specified DAUs rather than statewide.

 

[Dave_]

I fear that it would not work as a supply and demand curve, folks will still have population estimates in hand, the thought that they are more clever/tougher than everyone else, and a willingness to blow a week of PTO and 2K to DIY hunt elk in Colorado, just to get out of the house. I think there is likely an endless reservoir of mid-westerners who get tired of sitting for whitetails and want to try their hand at elk (not a knock against you guys).

They could also in theory raise the price of the tags to price out a lot of NR from coming every year. It would maybe be a one in a lifetime thing. Therefore making the same $ but reducing hunting pressure. At my salary I don't mind spending $700 on a tag right now (still way cheaper than finding a private deer lease close to home), but if that shot up to 1200+, I may be trying to switch to more mule deer, antelope, and grouse in various mountain states and waiting for a decent draw for elk. I'm not a fan of significantly raising the price though, I'd rather they go to easy draw limited (0-1 pts) or OTC with caps and the normal working guy can still afford to go hunt. But if current pressure levels continues to increase, at some point they would have to change (at least in areas like the south where populations are below objective).

 

[Smada962]

Maybe OTC with caps could be a solution. A certain amount of OTC tags and once they are all sold no more. But that would probably more chaotic than leftover day when they go on sale lol

I personally think this is a good option, similar to how Idaho does it.

 

[Laramie]

Maybe OTC with caps could be a solution. A certain amount of OTC tags and once they are all sold no more. But that would probably more chaotic than leftover day when they go on sale lol

All LQ areas are "OTC with a cap"??? The tags are either limited in number or they aren't. When hunters decide to purchase them makes no difference. The second the numbers become capped, people will rush to buy them forcing the state to place the tag in the draw system.

 

[Sako76]

I hope so, OTC brings in too much money to Colorado.

 

[isItFallYet]

I think the reintroduction of wolves will have a larger effect than the increase of elk hunters in the next 10-20 years.