CO Moose draw changes

Joined
Mar 2, 2013
Messages
378
Location
Lakewood, CO
Below are last years statewide overall odds for CO residents to draw a moose tag (bull and cow combined). They do not separate out the numbers for bull tags but generally speaking, odds are a lot better to draw a cow tag than a bull tag.

2018 CO Resident Moose draw odds via CPW website

Weighted Res Res Draw/Apps
Ppts Apps Draw (% odds)
17 608 38 6.25
16 368 10 2.72
15 516 14 2.71
14 474 10 2.11
13 499 12 2.40
12 645 19 2.95
11 538 12 2.23
10 618 10 1.62
9 689 13 1.89
8 697 25 3.59
7 774 20 2.58
6 997 30 3.01
5 1024 27 2.64
4 1164 21 1.80
3 1318 29 2.20
2 1621 25 1.54
1 1984 46 2.32
0 2460 35 1.42

Sorry the website may not to allow spacing so the 1st column is weighted pts and the last column are the odds.

So here's my question/problem with the current moose draw system. Next year, they've added a $50 fee to apply for moose. I have a lot of moose points but there is really no better odds if you have high points or low points. I discussed the moose odds with a CPW officer at the Denver ISE and he claimed that those with high points have a "significantly" greater chance to draw. As my instincts told me that was not true, the numbers confirm my suspicion that points don't really matter. You kinda hafta understand the draw system a little to understand why. So, trying to decide whether to now shell out $50 every year for about a 2% chance to draw (prolly much lower for a bull tag). I plan to at least comment to the CPW on their current system to see if they might consider modifying it some to provide a little more favor to those that have been applying for many years. Any comments?
 

ckleeves

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Feb 25, 2012
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Montrose,Colorado
I’m in favor of bonus point system where every point is another name in the hat so to speak. IMO a squared point system errors almost to heavily on the high points holders and the current system doesn’t give enough advantage to the guys who have stuck it out for 20 years.


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cnelk

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Mar 1, 2012
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Colorado
Well...... Lots has changed since 2018.

* In 2019 there will be higher fees to apply for moose, no more $3 to apply.
* You will also need a qualifying license to apply [small game] fishing license is not enough enough
* You now dont have to pay for a PP if you dont draw [Choose wisely]

The CPW person is correct - the more PPs/ WPs you have the better chance you have.

Where else are you going to pay $50 for a chance a OIL bull moose tag?

Remember, SOMEONE draws those tags....

Comment all you want. In the end, its just a simple matter of supply and demand
 

pods8 (Rugged Stitching)

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The question that was asked of them in the FAQ was along the lines of: will you automatically require someone to buy a point if unsuccessful in the draw or can they continue to apply with the points they have w/o accumulating more (IE buy the point separately or as acknowledged option vs automatic)? Their response was they hadn't discussed how to handle that prior to announcing the changes... get organized people!

With a $50 charge it should be optional to build points and just apply with what you have (like other states) BUT there is money to be reaped so I'm guessing they'll go the greedy route.

The BETTER put every cent of these fees into HUNTING and not fishing/parks/other...
 

ericF

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Oct 4, 2016
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CO
It is already written into the regs that will be printing soon that you have the option to spend $50 on a point, but it is not required. Check the commission website to see the big game regs as approved for the year.
 
OP
COLOelkman
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Mar 2, 2013
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Lakewood, CO
There's been some good discussion on another forum (MM) about this also and from one guys analysis, the current system does favor those with higher points but not by very much. So in general, just my opinion, but for my $50, I'll keep it in my pocket and stick with the points I have. You might be gaining a few tenths of a % point each year by growing points and since the odds won't be very good regardless, it sure seems like they are adding a pretty big fee to give you only slightly better odds. Unless you want to contribute for 20 years or so but thats just too much $ for what they are giving you from what I can tell. It's a very convoluted system they have and it's really very dependent on you luck in drawing a good random number so it's also pretty hard to actually calculate drawing odds. I do plan to go to their office Mon or Tues this week to at least give them some feedback and suggestions for the 20-24 season structure.
 
Joined
Sep 7, 2018
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Pennsylvania
I’m in favor of bonus point system where every point is another name in the hat so to speak. IMO a squared point system errors almost to heavily on the high points holders and the current system doesn’t give enough advantage to the guys who have stuck it out for 20 years.


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Thats how PA does it for elk, every years app stays in the hat until you draw. Really fair way to do it in my book, especially for guys that have been trying for years.
 

Steve O

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Michigan
Well, if you don’t put in, your odds of NOT drawing a CO moose tag are as good as they could ever get. If I wanted to hunt moose in Colorado I would be putting in for the tag...

That strategy of putting in for tags I want has worked out much better for me than doing all the number crunching and not putting in; CO Sheep tag, 3 AZ elk tags, AZ Kiabab November Deer tag, UT Mtn Goat, Alaska Musk Ox among many others. The Mountain Goat tag was 1:2400+ so 3-6% looks like a lock to me.

You are going to be a much better judge of what to spend your money on than we are.

Good luck whichever way you go.
 

harry

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Mar 10, 2019
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IA
As a non-resident who has been building points I was thinking I would decline the pp for $100 and stay where I'm at. My odds are not great to begin with but I'm in with 3-3 pp. Also when you add sheep and goat that's $300/yr. I would rather save That $300/yr and maybe put it towards a trip to Alaska.
 

jray5740

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Apr 9, 2017
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Colorado
As a non-resident who has been building points I was thinking I would decline the pp for $100 and stay where I'm at. My odds are not great to begin with but I'm in with 3-3 pp. Also when you add sheep and goat that's $300/yr. I would rather save That $300/yr and maybe put it towards a trip to Alaska.

Dont forget the $151 in small game license fee just for the privilege of applying and then paying another $300 a year like you state above!
 
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