Colorado point creep survey

[Dioni A]

Just curious how many points over last year's draw people are aiming. I'm looking at burning 3 points for a one point unit and worried I'll come up short. I'm hoping this helps us get an aggregate of what to expect

 

[Doc Holliday]

I have 2 points and put in for a mule deer unit that normally takes zero points.

 

[dirtytough]

I believe it depends more on the season and amount of tags for that hunt. Plus if it’s in the 20% group or 35% group.

A unit that only gives out 10 non res tags for 3rd season is going to jump a lot more than a unit that gives out 200 non res tags.

I doubt a tag that takes 10 points for archery is going to creep as much as a tag that takes 10 points for 3rd season. All about the season and tag quota.

Any hunt that only takes 1 point probably has a lot of tags so I wouldn’t worry if I applied with 3 points. I would expect to draw.

There are a few tags I think are going to have some very high point holders apply that took single digits last year.

 

[Dioni A]

I believe it depends more on the season and amount of tags for that hunt. Plus if it’s in the 20% group or 35% group.

A unit that only gives out 10 non res tags for 3rd season is going to jump a lot more than a unit that gives out 200 non res tags.

I doubt a tag that takes 10 points for archery is going to creep as much as a tag that takes 10 points for 3rd season. All about the season and tag quota.

Any hunt that only takes 1 point probably has a lot of tags so I wouldn’t worry if I applied with 3 points. I would expect to draw.

There are a few tags I think are going to have some very high point holders apply that took single digits last year.

That's what I was referring to I just assumed everybody know I was talking about the late rifle hunt options. There's definitely a lot of variables I'm just trying to assess the field.

 

[dirtytough]

Over all average creep for 2nd and 3rd I don’t think will be that much. Look how many tags the 18 cluster gives out, the 35 cluster, the 11 cluster, the 4 cluster, the 3 cluster, the 41 cluster, most of the 70 units. There are so many tags it would take a huge amount of people to really move the needle. Those aren’t hardly going to creep.

Everyone knows hunts like 44 second are going to have a lot of creep though. I think it took 7-8 points last year. Guys with 14 are talking about applying for it.

Like I said if I applied for a hunt that took 1 point last year with 3 this year I would really expect to draw. If I applied for 44 second with 10 points I would be crossing my fingers and praying.

 

[Blackcats06]

I think you're on the right path but I'm gonna make up some numbers. Lets say a unit takes 1 point for 3rd season and 13 for 4th season. I can see it jumping to 8 or 10 if people realize they are getting a 4th season hunt for a discounted price. But i think every unit is a case by case scenario

 

[Ynothunt41]

I just applied yesterday. I know I'm going to help the jump.

 

[Azone]

I will be burning 5 points on a hunt that took 2 last year.

 

[street]

All of the units highly talked about on forums and podcasts will jump significantly on the 3rd seasons. A lot will depend on the tag allocations by unit like already mentioned. 2c

 

[Travis Hobbs]

Great thread! I know it seems a lot of people that usually sit out in Colorado are “all in” this year.

 

[HOT ROD]

I think 2 points of creep should be expected.... But the best unit will see 2 + point creep especially 2 season I can see sum of the second season in the most talked about units going from single digit point to double digit points to draw pretty easy...

 

[cal30_sniper]

Is it just the late season dates, or is something else going on that will cause massive point creep this year? I was looking at some units that have a 20-30ish percent chance for a non-Res to draw at my point level, but maybe I need to set my sights on a zero point level. Mainly looking to get in the field, but would also like a better hunt than the leftover tag I drew last year.

 

[GunsAreFun]

Are the 0-1 point units affected by creep much?

I could see anything that is 2 points or more having creep, but the units that don’t require building points should mainly be affected by demand/applications for individual years I would think.

 

[cal30_sniper]

Are the 0-1 point units affected by creep much?

I could see anything that is 2 points or more having creep, but the units that don’t require building points should mainly be affected by demand/applications for individual years I would think.

That’s what I was hoping, as long as it’s just the late season dates driving increased demands for quality hunts. Figured I’d ask since it’s better to be hunting a poor unit than sitting on one’s hands.

 

[akhunter87]

Personally I am trying to burn my points this year and next for deer/antelope/elk in CO and only apply for sheep/goat after that.

 

[bowuntr]

I'm cashing in 15 for an 8 point unit... Ed F

 

[Pistolpete28]

Over all average creep for 2nd and 3rd I don’t think will be that much. Look how many tags the 18 cluster gives out, the 35 cluster, the 11 cluster, the 4 cluster, the 3 cluster, the 41 cluster, most of the 70 units. There are so many tags it would take a huge amount of people to really move the needle. Those aren’t hardly going to creep.

Everyone knows hunts like 44 second are going to have a lot of creep though. I think it took 7-8 points last year. Guys with 14 are talking about applying for it.

Like I said if I applied for a hunt that took 1 point last year with 3 this year I would really expect to draw. If I applied for 44 second with 10 points I would be crossing my fingers and praying.

My thoughts exactly, it would take an insane amount of applications, to significantly change draw odds in Colorado's “opportunity” hunts.

 

[Chad E]

I think its probably going to vary a lot with some jumping 3 to 5 and others not very much if any. Tag numbers certainly will influence this heavily as it would take incredible demand on some of the high tag number units to really see them jump and conversely could be easy to see a low tag number unit jump several points. I think with things being all over the place as guys jump from 4th to 3rd season and 3rd to 2nd season it will be intresting to see if any units/seasons end up getting passed over and either cost similar or drop in points because everyone jumped ship. It will certainly be intresting to see cpw demand reports after this one.

 

[IrkedCitizen]

I posted in another thread my thoughts.

Help me figure out my 2021 season

Thinking about my 2021 season and having a moral dilemma for a couple time slots, don’t want to get into specific regions, but I have any of the below either guaranteed or very high draw odds on the units I am looking at: Early October: Utah General Season Muzzleloader deer (with cow elk tag in...

www.rokslide.com

Point creep is going to be real this year in Colorado with these season dates. This is going to affect residents and NR alike in being able to draw tags. Unless you have 5pp or more I would not plan on drawing a tag. Unless you are you are going to use your 5pp on a GMU that takes 0-2pp that is the only way I see it happening. I could be wrong. I hope I'm wrong. Time will tell.

The reason I say this is due to the fact there are 34,263 hunters that have preference points ranging from 5-32pp. This is according to the 2020 deer draw recap report. There could be a great number of hunters in that range that for whatever reason did not apply in 2020. They are likely going to apply in 2021 though. This group of hunters, especially the ones with 10-20pp, are going to dictate what happens to those of us under 5pp. They are not all going to apply for the same high point units. They will be cashing in their points on units that take significantly less than the points they have.

According to the 2020 deer draw recap report there are 131,834 hunters with 1pp or more for the 2021 season. Like I said above 34,263 have 5pp or better. So there are 97,571 hunters with 4pp or less.

For reference there were only 100,687 tags available for the 2020 deer draw. Of those there were 65,756 that got drawn for their first choice. There were 13,851 that went in 2nd/3rd/4th choice. For a total of 79,607 tags issued. The rest went to the landowner draw and secondary draw.

Now back to the first choice draw of 65,756 tags. There were 30,812 hunters that had 1pp or more. Meaning there were 34,944 hunters had 0pp. That means there are roughly 30,812 tags available that required preference points.

Again there are 34,263 hunters with 5-32pp THAT WE KNOW OF and 97,571 with 1-4pp! Competing for 30,812 tags that required points.

Just going to have to sit back and see where the dust settles and hope we get lucky on a tag.

 

[wind gypsy]

I have 6 pp and was thinking I’d just buy a point again but if people keep hyping a guy might have to find a place to burn em..