Colorado Sheep/Goat

jray5740

Lil-Rokslider
Joined
Apr 9, 2017
Messages
280
Location
Colorado
Not devils advocate or anything, but I have seen many comments over the years and in this thread too about how little the points matter as you wait to draw. I have to believe they matter immensely and heres why....If 2 hunters, one with 5 points and one with 25 points, are assigned the same random number in different draw test populations.....prior to the draw taking place.....and then that random number goes through the division mathematics of CDOW, the higher pointed hunter will draw by a landslide statistically over a lower point hunter.

In other words X/5 is statistically much higher of a number than X/25, therefore the random number "X" can be much larger on a scale and still be the draw tag because the points denominator makes it as such. Its all low probability anyway when talking these types of tags, but points matter significantly when you get to the nitty gritty....theres two keys to CO tag drawing for sheep, goat, and moose. The random number and the points a hunter has. Random number 10 with 5 points will draw over random number 2000 with 25 points...In my humble opinion of course.
 

Vids

WKR
Joined
Jul 3, 2012
Messages
593
Location
Littleton, CO
Not devils advocate or anything, but I have seen many comments over the years and in this thread too about how little the points matter as you wait to draw. I have to believe they matter immensely and heres why....If 2 hunters, one with 5 points and one with 25 points, are assigned the same random number in different draw test populations.....prior to the draw taking place.....and then that random number goes through the division mathematics of CDOW, the higher pointed hunter will draw by a landslide statistically over a lower point hunter.

In other words X/5 is statistically much higher of a number than X/25, therefore the random number "X" can be much larger on a scale and still be the draw tag because the points denominator makes it as such. Its all low probability anyway when talking these types of tags, but points matter significantly when you get to the nitty gritty....theres two keys to CO tag drawing for sheep, goat, and moose. The random number and the points a hunter has. Random number 10 with 5 points will draw over random number 2000 with 25 points...In my humble opinion of course.
You are correct on this, the weighted points do matter. Statistically speaking, having 21 wp versus 20 wp doesn't tip the scales too much in your favor, but having 21 wp versus 2 wp is a big difference. People tend to get hung up on the fact that there are a number of low wp holder drawing tags. That is just a function of there being so many more applicants with low wps, inevitably there will be a decent number of those folks that will draw and make it look like having wps doesn't matter at all.
 

Hoot

WKR
Joined
May 18, 2013
Messages
482
Location
Ft Collins, CO
That is correct, the main thing that everyone fails to realize is that we are all in the same preference point pool. 3 preference points is the max point pool and the number of applicants in that pool grows every year. If you are in the point pool you have an equal chance as everyone else of drawing a low random number. It is only after that where weighted points come into play.

I drew this year with 3 + 5 points. My luck of the draw was on the 3 points side, not the 5 points side.

Some people will interpret that and say that weighted points don’t matter. The fact is, they do matter, but only AFTER the OUTCOME of EQUAL odds of drawing a low random number in the 3 point pool.
 

JasonCO

FNG
Joined
Jun 22, 2020
Messages
5
Location
Colorado
Thanks! Just a ewe tag but I'm still thrilled. Had this same tag a couple years ago and had a great time. Struck out but learned the unit really well, so I already have a solid game plan for this year.
Nothing wrong with a ewe tag, I had one of those before!
 
Joined
Jan 2, 2013
Messages
1,784
Location
Colorado
Well. Luck was on my side this year. A tag was turned in so I got a call today from the dept of wildlife that I was next in line and did I want the tag. Heck yes after all these years. S12 archery for me this August. Excited beyond belief.


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WKR
Joined
Jul 3, 2012
Messages
593
Location
Littleton, CO
Well. Luck was on my side this year. A tag was turned in so I got a call today from the dept of wildlife that I was next in line and did I want the tag. Heck yes after all these years. S12 archery for me this August. Excited beyond belief.


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That's awesome, especially to have it happen this early! Still plenty of time to scout. Heck, I haven't even started yet, way too much snow up there still. I got the email from them for a ewe tag that had been turned in in 2016, but I got it two weeks before the hunt.
 
Joined
Jan 2, 2013
Messages
1,784
Location
Colorado
That's awesome, especially to have it happen this early! Still plenty of time to scout. Heck, I haven't even started yet, way too much snow up there still. I got the email from them for a ewe tag that had been turned in in 2016, but I got it two weeks before the hunt.

Nice! That would be a tight window. My summer plans are all set now:)


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