goHunt - is it sometimes "off", or am I stupid? Probably the latter....

Billinsd

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Aug 25, 2015
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795
For the cost of a cup of coffee at Starbucks three times a month it's a hell of a deal, if you use it.
 

204guy

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Mar 4, 2013
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537
Location
WY
Laughing... they can't win. Some feel they're ruining western hunting because they lower the barrier to entry and some think the info the they have is to generic. I don't know or care to find out how long it would take me to compile just draw odds for all the different species, in the 6 states I apply. Figuring what I value my time at they're literally pennies on the dollar.

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lbasilon85

Junior Member
Joined
Apr 13, 2018
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46
Location
Florida
I've been doing a lot of research for New Mexico and I would say that in over 80% of instances, the draw odds are incorrect - usually too high. The weird thing is that the number of tags available and the number of applicants on the same page are correct but the calculated percentage doesn't seem to tie. There is a serious systemic error in New Mexico at least and prob in other states. Am I the only one?
 

willfrye027

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Dec 4, 2018
Messages
450
Sometimes draw odds are slightly more complicated than what you see in the regs. For example, Wyoming has a good amount of tags in the random quota for nonresident deer in addition to the preference point system. So you have to include the odds that you will draw in the PP quota, with the odds that you will draw in the random quota (if you were unsuccessful). You can do the math yourself but this number is not going to be published in the regs. I believe Gohunt actually does calculate your true odds based on these factors (Based on my free trial experience). This could be a reason your odds are not matching up with what you see in the regs.
 

Trial153

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Oct 28, 2014
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NY
I've been doing a lot of research for New Mexico and I would say that in over 80% of instances, the draw odds are incorrect - usually too high. The weird thing is that the number of tags available and the number of applicants on the same page are correct but the calculated percentage doesn't seem to tie. There is a serious systemic error in New Mexico at least and prob in other states. Am I the only one?
How are you applying non first choice applications into your odds?
 

idahohikker

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May 10, 2017
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ID
Laughing... they can't win. Some feel they're ruining western hunting because they lower the barrier to entry and some think the info the they have is to generic. I don't know or care to find out how long it would take me to compile just draw odds for all the different species, in the 6 states I apply. Figuring what I value my time at they're literally pennies on the dollar.

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204, I think most residents would want GoHunt to go away but that's not happening. I'm not wishing they posted better unit or state info, it's just funny how much it sucks. The draw odds are very convenient though so I see their value for those applying in many states.
 

dreamingWest

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Joined
Jan 28, 2017
Messages
155
A few years ago, around the time gohunt was just starting to put out their filtering feature state by state I was researching my first pronghorn hunt in Wyoming. Pouring over state draw data, maps, creating my own spreadsheets, researching access issues, public roads, etc. Ultimately two buddies and I were rewarded by all punching tags in a second choice unit while all gaining a preference point. It was a rewarding research effort over multiple weeks. Not sure how many hours were spent. The following summer gohunt enticed me to join because they were giving away a Stone Sheep hunt. Out of curiosity I used the new filtering feature to mimic my previous Wyoming research. Damn. Too easy. GoHunt can get you 75% of the way there. The rest is up to you and other sources.

Rambling aside, I wish they would start giving away hunts and landowner tags again rather than gear...
 

wapitibob

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Joined
Feb 24, 2012
Messages
2,259
Location
Bend Oregon
Both Toprut and Gohunt are now providing AZ and WY info you can't get without some effort and money. I have yet to see one person go thru that exercise.

Knowing that both GoHunt and Toprut buy states applicant databases, I have confidence that their odds are way better than what joe6 calculates from an odds report.
 

cgasner1

Member
Joined
Mar 12, 2015
Messages
96
Wish you could adjust the draw odds in the filter the other way if your only wanting to put in for a 5-10% tag so you don’t have to look at every elk tag in a state


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NoWiser

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Joined
Aug 15, 2013
Messages
229
I've been doing a lot of research for New Mexico and I would say that in over 80% of instances, the draw odds are incorrect - usually too high. The weird thing is that the number of tags available and the number of applicants on the same page are correct but the calculated percentage doesn't seem to tie. There is a serious systemic error in New Mexico at least and prob in other states. Am I the only one?
It's not as simply as taking the number of tags divided by the number of applicants. Real odds are almost always higher than this.
 

Trial153

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Oct 28, 2014
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NY
Why is that when the draw is purely random? I understand that in many cases the three options will play into this but how does GoHunt adjust for this?
I guess that's why we subscribe to Gohunt and their ilk and and not to you.

The order of choices matter and need to be figured into it. You also cant assume that people placed their choices in correct order ...because many dont.
 

wapitibob

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Feb 24, 2012
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2,259
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Bend Oregon
Why is that when the draw is purely random? I understand that in many cases the three options will play into this but how does GoHunt adjust for this?
They don't "adjust"; Gohunt has the applicant database, with every choice, for every app. They run the draw thousands of times to average the peaks and valleys. What they publish were the odds for that hunt, for that year.
 

idahohikker

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ID
Very cool. I didn't know GoHunt does so much behind the scenes with the draw odds.

I can't see how they'd provide useful secret sauce in a system like Idaho where all first choices are considered before second choices. No one ever draws a desirable bull tag second choice. The nuance is the 10% cap for non-residents where their odds can be lower than normal depending on how popular a unit is for non-residents.
 

Riplip

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Joined
Mar 12, 2012
Messages
219
Location
Colorado
NM is perfect example of how just looking at the draw odds provided by the State does not give you the full picture. You need to account for draw order as mentioned above as well as group or party applications (reported applications vs distinct applications.

Once again I find Go Hunt and Top Rut a great resource for exploring various hunting options for various species across multiple states. If you hunt only one animal in one State, probably not as useful.

I find it funny that some people automatically discount such services without knowing anything about them, especially the comments about not spending the money on something that is available for free. These are the same guys using On X, or GPS ......but why the same info is available for free if you know where to look? Good old paper map and compass are certainly less expensive (probably more reliable) if your worried about getting lost. It comes down to convenience, available technology and time management.
 

Maverick940

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Apr 2, 2016
Messages
316
Very cool. I didn't know GoHunt does so much behind the scenes with the draw odds.

I can't see how they'd provide useful secret sauce in a system like Idaho where all first choices are considered before second choices. No one ever draws a desirable bull tag second choice. The nuance is the 10% cap for non-residents where their odds can be lower than normal depending on how popular a unit is for non-residents.
Exactly. Arizona is the same way, whereas only the first and second choices on every application are considered during the first two phases of the draw. Third, fourth and fifth choices aren't even considered until the "random" portion of the draw and by then, first and second choices aren't even acknowleddged. I have noticed that GoHunt is definitely behind the eight-ball in relation to Arizona's new permit allocation system..
 
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