Idaho 2018/19 winter

[Joe Schmo]

The question is: How is the winter of 2018/19 treating Idaho’s mule deer?
After the winter of 2016/17 I am a worry wart when it comes central Idaho’s mule deer herd. I spend a lot of time there in the summer, a little in the spring and then a week during hunting season but never really in the heart of the winter weather. Maybe I worry too much but I believe there’s good reason to worry, see below. After the winter of 2016/17 I feel like the impact of anything more than an “average” winter will exponentially impact the herd…given the increased hunting pressure and harvest of younger bucks, see below. I will be spending time in the central ho in about a month but I’d like to hear from folks who have boots on the ground now. Observations?
I was a nay-sayer in the winter of 2016/17, I said “Quit yer bitchin and just go hunting”. I went hunting.
I don’t regret going mule deer hunting in central Idaho in 2017 or 2018. However, I feel like an idiot because I should have spent the summer of 2017 picking up dead heads. It’s apparent that the 16/17 winter literally decimated the herd, wait that’s not true at all. THE WINTER OF 2016/17 DECIMATED THE BUCK POPULATION IN CENTRAL IDAHO. True.
Over the past two years we have had days of seeing 100+ does in a day and no bucks. We have seen bucks…spikes and forkys and the occasional immature 3 and 4 point.
The problem is that there are still great numbers of people hunting and those people are now shooting plenty of those smaller, less mature bucks, this is not going to help the population rebuild. People are free to shoot any buck with a 3” horn as per the regs so go ahead, I’m just sayin.
I was listening to a podcast with a guy named Robby Denning or something and he said floored me, he said that the great hunting of 2014/15/16 was due to the fact there had been mild winters, more or less, ever since the bad winter of 1992/93…hold on now, that’s over 20 years!! That’s 20 years to get central Idaho hunting back to 2013/14/15/16 levels. Twenty years. Meaning that folks wanting it to be like the “good ol days” have got a looooooong time to wait. Anyways.
I’m wondering how this winter is affecting the central Idaho mule deer?

 

[Mike 338]

All I can say is that most of the state is above average in snowfall. It's snowing today where I'm at. Other than a snow machine, the mountains are inaccessible. Most of the boots on the ground aren't boots. They're slippers and a fuzzy robe.

 

[Broomd]

Thankfully it's been a mild one so far for 2018/19. We finally got an abundance of snow in the last few weeks, probably 20" out there right now. The herd needed the last two Winters to recover from '16/'17.
Recovery does take time.
Many of us tried to tell others to forego Idaho muleys in '17/18 due to '16/'17, but the simple truth is that people don't listen or maybe they simply don't care.
Guys were killing spikes and tiny forks that next year for meat. It is what it is and it wasn't illegal to do so..

 

[willfrye027]

My hunting partner hunted SE Idaho in 17’. The year before he was seeing several decent bucks a day, that year he saw a tiny fork by spike in 6 days of hard, hard hunting. We have moved on to other areas for the foreseeable future. Very curious how long it will take the herd to recover.

 

[Clarktar]

The deer in Idaho are in trouble and have been for a while. This winter has been mild.....until the last 2 weeks. All of the SnoTel sites in Eastern Idaho show above average snowpack. These late winter storms will cause deer mortality to skyrocket. Hopefully it will clear up and warm up, but if we get more snow the deer could end up at lower levels than '17 or '18.

Something to keep in mind. Generally snotel sites are at higher elevations and tell you nothing about lowland snow. You can have above average snowpack at snotel sites but actually have much less snow across the landscape due to lower or no snow at the lower elevations.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

 

[sneaky]

Those late March to mid April storms are the ones that seem to be the ones that really hammer the deer, especially if there's been a break and then the hammer drops. No need to be defensive about the SnoTel comment from Clarktar. Just because you live near the winter ranges near Idaho Falls doesn't tell us anything as to your proximity to the SnoTel sensors. Hell, the winter hasn't been bad at all til the past couple of weeks. It's been nothing like the winter of 16/17. No sustained periods of below zero temps, less total snowpack. Barring a late spring dump I think the deer should be in pretty decent shape. Should be a good moisture year for spring and summer with the levels we're at right now.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

 

[sneaky]

https://idfg.idaho.gov/press/2018-d...-2017-above-10-year-averages-except-mule-deer

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

 

[Clarktar]

Something to keep in mind. Generally snotel sites are at higher elevations and tell you nothing about lowland snow. You can have above average snowpack at snotel sites but actually have much less snow across the landscape due to lower or no snow at the lower elevations.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

Bluetick, I did not read your response (it appears gone now) but at any rate I was not trying to be rude, or discount what you are seeing first hand. I just wanted to pass on an observation about SnoTel sites. It was just a general observation I made in Montana years ago, and it may not reflect the truth in what others are seeing in there localities. I just saw the word SnoTel in your post and recalled that observation.

I can't help help to think about bias in observations, I am trained as a professional observer (aka scientist)

 

[idahohikker]

I think this winter is going to end up being pretty good all throughout Southern and Central Idaho as mentioned. No super deep or crusty snow and extended periods of below zero temps. The winter of 16/17 was bad enough that it will still have effects for 5-10 years.

 

[bluetick78]

Bluetick, I did not read your response (it appears gone now) but at any rate I was not trying to be rude, or discount what you are seeing first hand. I just wanted to pass on an observation about SnoTel sites. It was just a general observation I made in Montana years ago, and it may not reflect the truth in what others are seeing in there localities. I just saw the word SnoTel in your post and recalled that observation.

I can't help help to think about bias in observations, I am trained as a professional observer (aka scientist)

It's fine. My comment was a little mangy, so I deleted it. No offense taken or intended. When I read the information from the local SnoTel sites, my brain automatically figures how much snow is on the winter range based on experience. If a SnoTel site is reporting 54"of snow on May 1st, I usually know that there is around 18" in the country that I want to access below the site. I used to run some Power Operations maintenance on those sites during all months, so I guess the site info tells me more than just a number on a computer about what is happening where the game lives. You are absolutely correct about the sites being much higher in elevation than any typical big game winter range. I guess I was trying to convey a small amount of concern, but in terms that wouldn't be understood by a large percentage of our hunting community. As far as deer mortality goes, I think we are fine for now, but I really hate the big late winter storms that kill deer at their most vulnerable time. Late February through early April can ruin an otherwise mild winter.

 

[nickstevens2588]

"Some guy named Robby D."

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

 

[BCWAID]

From the 2018 harvest report in regards to 2 pt mule deer harvest: "This age group of bucks accounted for the majority of the uptick in mule deer harvest numbers from the 2017 to the 2018 season. Hunters took 8,975 bucks with two points or less in 2018, up from 6,562 in 2017 – an increase of 2,413 animals, or 38 percent. "

Probably not a huge impact from a general population standpoint, but made my heart sink a little. Nothing against meat-hunters or the young/old just happy to fill their buck tag, but I hope this trend doesn't continue.

 

[robby denning]

I would wager some of that is due to way less two points available in 2017, they died the previous winter. The fawns of spring ‘17 were born after the hard winter was over, so more of them entered that age class in 2018.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[BCWAID]

Good point. I couldn't find any pre-2017 2 pt harvest stats, but I bet they'd support that.

 

[idelkslayer]

I don't think it is all doom and gloom. This is what happens after bad winters and within a few years of mild winters things will change for the better.

Here is some history of deer harvest numbers in a particular SE unit that has been affected by several bad winters in the last 15 years. Sorry for the long list but I think it helps to illustrate a longer time period with multiple trends.

Year / Harvest / Does / Hunter # / success rate %
2017 / 720 / 0 / 3531 / 20.4
2016 / 1822 / 163 / 3774 / 48.3
2015 / 1764 / 177 / 3864 / 45.7
2014 / 1410 / 209 / 3417 / 41.3
2013 / 979 / 101 / 2660 / 36.8
2012 / 731 / 100 / 2166 / 33.8
2011 / 515 / 126 / 2498 / 20.3
2010 / 991 / 120 / 2766 / 35.8
2009 / 876 / 97 / 2882 / 30.4
2008/ 803 / 12 / 3518 / 22.8
2007 / 1367 / 3 / 3629 / 37.7
2006 / 967 / 1 / 3276 / 29.5
2005 / 774 / 31 / 2935 / 26.4
2004 / 751 / 0 / 3001 / 25
2003 / 798 / 3 / /
2002 668 / 18 / 3737 / 18

Idaho had hard winters in 2000/2001, 2007/2008, 2010/2011 and 2016/2017. The harvest following the 2010/2011 winter was much lower than it is now, especially considering that only 389 of the deer were bucks. And yet, within 5 consecutive mild winters the harvest rose to 1659 bucks. Look back at the years following other bad winters and you can see the harvest trending up and it would have continued if hard winters hadn't come along to stop the growth.

Certainly there are other factors at play and I wonder why the recovery after 2010/2011 was a little faster than the post 2007/2008 winter.

Young bucks (spikes and forkies) have always accounted for a large portion of deer harvested. I think that closing doe harvest after the 2016/17 winter may have been the right decision for fast population regrowth but may reduce the number of bucks in the short term. Youth hunters who would have been happy to shoot a doe had to hold out for a forky, whereas in other years every doe that gets shot allows a forky to survive and grow another year older and larger.

 

[robby denning]

killer info idelkslayer

 

[bluetick78]

I think one piece of info that could be lacking in those stats may be hunter numbers. Straight harvest info is a great indicator of population trends, but influxes of hunters can skew those results. Great info though, thanks for sharing.

 

[robby denning]

I think one piece of info that could be lacking in those stats may be hunter numbers. Straight harvest info is a great indicator of population trends, but influxes of hunters can skew those results. Great info though, thanks for sharing.

@idelkslayer, can you oblige?

 

[idelkslayer]

I edited the post above to include the number of hunters each year. I excluded 2003 because I believe the IDFG number is a typo (6,224). It is just too far out of the norm to be a real number.

There is a pretty clear correlation between success rate and the number of hunters. After a bad winter the success rate goes down. Hunters see this and don't hunt that area in the following years. As the herd rebounds and success rates go up, hunters come back and start hunting the unit again.

Look at 2007, the year before a hard winter. 3629 hunters and 37.7 % success rate. Then in 2008 after the winter, 3518 hunters and 22.8 % success rate. Since the success rate was high in 2007, hunters went back in 2008. But when the success rate dropped in 2008, only 2882 hunters came back in 2009 and success went up a little. Similar numbers hunted it in 2010 with another bump in success but then another bad winter came.

Following the bad winter and low success in 2011, hunter numbers dropped to 2166 in 2012. However, success in 2012 jumped because the herd was rebounding and fewer hunters were in the area. Then each year as the success rate increased more and more hunters came to the unit until it peaked in 2015 and 2016 at 3864 and 3774 respectively. Then the winter of 2016/17 hit hard, but hunters look to previous years success rates to determine where to hunt and still saw the high success of the previous year and returned in large numbers (3531) to much lower deer populations, and success rates were cut in half, (48.3 in 2016 to 20.4 % in 2017).

I am very curious to see how the numbers come out for 2018 in this area. I suspect that in hunters saw the low success of 2017 and the number of hunters in this unit in 2018 dropped significantly. The herd is slowly regrowing so the 2018 success rate will be slightly higher. And then the cycle will repeat itself.

 

[Pistolpete28]

Interesting research idelkslayer, thanks for sharing