Idaho 2018/19 winter

[robby denning]

Thanks idelkslayer. You nailed it, and that’s one of the arguments I’ve had biologist put forth why general seasons work, “when the hunting gets bad, hunters leave, herd rebounds.”

Not saying it’s good logic, but as you just showed, it’s the truth.


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[VANDAL]

Great info idelkslayer...thanks for pulling that all together!

The 2018 harvest stats will be very interesting. In eastern and southeast Idaho I’m thinking hunter #’s may be higher, with similar success rates as 2017.

Non-res tags sold out this year prior to the end of general season in October. That hasn’t happened in a long time. I’m assuming Eastern and SE Idaho absorbs more non res hunters than other general season units... that may be wrong tho?.?.?..

Do they publish non res hunters by unit?


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[IdahoHntr]

Thanks idelkslayer. You nailed it, and that’s one of the arguments I’ve had biologist put forth why general seasons work, “when the hunting gets bad, hunters leave, herd rebounds.”

Not saying it’s good logic, but as you just showed, it’s the truth.


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It's definitely some interesting info. I have noticed the same thing in several different general areas that I hunt when going through the stats. It makes you wonder if the entire state was general, if that would displace people even more, allowing deer herds to rise as a whole throughout the state, instead of just in some specific controlled areas. Less people in each unit would mean more bucks surviving and pretty soon more units would contain older age class bucks.

A much different way to manage than what we are used to, but I'd be interested to see if it could work in today's world. I definitely rather the more general opportunity approach Idaho currently has to the more limited opportunity approach of other western states.

 

[idelkslayer]

They do not publish NR numbers per unit. That is information that I would like to see.

I do think SE Idaho is one of the 2 most NR pressured areas in the state. The other being Northern Idaho. Both areas are in close proximity to states with limited resident opportunity.

IdahoHntr

I don't want to go in depth on controlled vs general season frameworks on this thread, but I will briefly mention that I think fewer controlled hunts is a better answer than more. Winter kills deer in controlled units too.

I posted that data to illustrate that weather drives deer population cycles and that patience is a virtue for mule deer hunters. If we lose our heads because of a bad winter we might push for changes to season structures that we will live to regret. Rather we should be aware of these cycles and incorporate that info into our hunting strategies.

This is why I think conserving our winter range is the most important thing for deer herds. I wish that instead of trying to ramrod more landowner tags and point systems down our throats, our legislature would look for ways to protect and incentivize protection of all winter ranges statewide from development.

 

[robby denning]

The three states that currently seem to have the best deer herds are Co, Nv, and now Ut (can’t believe I just wrote that) and they all manage hunters with some type of cap per unit or zone.


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[idahohikker]

Here here on winter range protection from development. You make a good point about winter and population trends. I'd prefer a general hunt units with caps but there's other interesting options as well. The current general structure has its merits as well.

 

[sagebuster]

Harvest Hunters Success % Antlered % 4 Pts
2013 1,808 8,987 20% 1,498 28% (An average year)
2014 1,962 10,492 19% 1,622 37%
2015 3,234 10,935 29% 2,528 36%
2016 3,844 10,960 35% 3,283 42%
2017 3,214 13,211 24% 2,697 34%
2018 ? ? ? ? ?

Great research, idelkslayer. I maintain a similar data matrix for mule deer in SW Idaho hunt unit 39, the largest hunt unit in the state and arguably one of the hardest hit by the devastating Winter of 2016/2017. Although the numbers for each season, for various reasons, are different than your unit, the pattern of rise and fall in hunter numbers and buck harvest relative to mild vs. severe Winters over time in my unit is a mirror of your SE unit. I imagine this pattern holds true for all of the hunt units across the Southern half of our state, where mule deer are most prevalent.

Since I mainly chase after the big boys (a la' Robby Denning, maybe yourself), I do the data research, make inferences, and act accordingly. I do this every year for multiple units. Sometimes I get lucky and get it right, but more often than not my inferences can be wrong. Hunt season stats in 2016 for mule deer in unit 39 imply that that was a banner year, easily the best in this century so far. But after the harsh Winter of 2016/2017, the numbers have already started their inevitable decline. Reversion to the mean, I think statisticians call it. The numbers for the individual units for 2018 aren't published as yet, but my bet is they will continue on a steady decline over the next several years.

The big bucks will still be out there in 2019, as hard to find as wolverines or maybe bigfoot. There will be does, a smattering of "toy" bucks...spikes, forkies, spindly 3-Pts...but the breeders, the big boys, will be increasingly harder to find. I talked to a F&G Biologist after the 2018 season, a disappointing season from my perspective, and he frowned, shrugged his shoulders, and said: "It is what it is". All I can say is, I hope 2019 will prove me wrong. The Lord only gives us so many seasons, and I'm not getting any younger. Mother nature, of course, couldn't care less.

 

[IdahoElk]

it's really bad in central Idaho, units 48/49, the Elk are having a very tough time and the deer are getting hammered,there is just too much snow.
This is a group of cows in my yard I've been helping out for the last two weeks.

 

[idahohikker]

Wow, that's bad IdahoElk.

 

[Broomd]

it's really bad in central Idaho, units 48/49, the Elk are having a very tough time and the deer are getting hammered,there is just too much snow.
This is a group of cows in my yard I've been helping out for the last two weeks.

Those elk may be having a tougher time getting around but they look healthy. A weak elk is obvious and is usually literally skin & bones, those are plump gals. Hopefully the weather cooperates until May at this point. Great pic!

 

[brn2hnt]

Different part of ID, but I am in the Treasure Valley, and around here I can count on 1 hand the number of days there has been snow on the ground by the afternoon.

My wife and I regularly hike and hunt in the Owyhees, and have had to pick and choose our days so that it was either cold enough or dry enough. Mud has been a bigger accessibility problem than snow until the last week or so.

Are there avalanche warnings all across the HWY 55 corridor? Sure. Do lots of deer migrate lower than that? You bet.

Very situationally dependent. Ask anyone who will give you the time here in TV and they will tell you that this has been the mildest winter in 15 years.

It's only Feb. The time to worry is a ways off. April seems to be the time when deer die.

 

[freebird]

The amount of deer, elk and antelope that winter just above Boise is huge. Have heard that some deer come down as far as McCall to winter above Boise. I haven't been out in the mnts yet this year. Might try and go for a drive next weekend as this weekend is my call weekend at the hospital.

 

[idahohikker]

The elk will be fine. It's the deer we should worry about. This winter was seeming to be mild, which would be great after such a bad one in 2016-2017. Let's just hope March is gentle to us.

The deer are doing fine on the winter range out of Boise. It's lower elevation than the Central and Eastern Idaho winter range that I'm starting to worry about. The Idaho Falls region bios told me this week that some deer in their region are starting to struggle with snow depths and there could be some winterkill issues depending on how things shake out.

 

[robby denning]

Different part of ID, but I am in the Treasure Valley, and around here I can count on 1 hand the number of days there has been snow on the ground by the afternoon.

My wife and I regularly hike and hunt in the Owyhees, and have had to pick and choose our days so that it was either cold enough or dry enough. Mud has been a bigger accessibility problem than snow until the last week or so.

Are there avalanche warnings all across the HWY 55 corridor? Sure. Do lots of deer migrate lower than that? You bet.

Very situationally dependent. Ask anyone who will give you the time here in TV and they will tell you that this has been the mildest winter in 15 years.

It's only Feb. The time to worry is a ways off. April seems to be the time when deer die.

and just 100 miles as the crow flies away, we're having a pretty tough one right now. Has snowed most days for the last three weeks, and cold. Very cold. "situationaly dependent" as you said.

 

[IdahoHntr]

The three states that currently seem to have the best deer herds are Co, Nv, and now Ut (can’t believe I just wrote that) and they all manage hunters with some type of cap per unit or zone.


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All states that the 2016-2017 winter just didn't hurt too much. In fact, all three don't deal with winters like Idaho really ever... Utah gets it some, Colorado from time to time, but not much in comparison, especially on a statewide level. I really think it says something for the general season philosophy that Idaho can deal with winters as bad as they do and still continue to offer some of the best general season buck hunting in the west. Anybody who wants to can hunt Idaho every year, and yet there are big bucks killed all over the state on general hunts every year. Its pretty special if you ask me.

 

[Mike 338]

Predators can walk on top of the snow. Winter in deep snow is a tough time to be an ungulate.

 

[mtnwrunner]

All I can tell you is......right now the high country is getting hammered. And so sign of letting up.

Randy

 

[freebird]

All I can tell you is......right now the high country is getting hammered. And so sign of letting up.

Randy

Randy, how are the deer looking around your neck of the woods?? I need to make a run up into unit 39 and look around

 

[Idahomnts]

Central Idaho report , 45/48/49/52/54 I’ve noticed a slight increase in the deer this year from the last two , notice a gap in the herds of the what should be 3 year olds I think. it had been a very mild winter until this last month or so and now it’s getting pounded , I’ve seen a few sick looking elk but also looked to be older , deer were lookin good 3 weeks ago , haven’t checked on them since ,
There’s about 3-4 feet of snow on the roof snow with a estimated 2-3 more feet, busy time for roofer and snow removal

 

[Joe Schmo]

Umm...I just checked a snotel site that gained 35" of snow in the last 3 days!!!