Idaho controlled hunt drawing system

Idaho Brad

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Aug 4, 2015
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Rose Lake, Id
I'm a resident of Idaho, so I'm familiar with every aspect of our draw system, except for one thing that I can't get an answer on.
So, maybe I can get clarification here.
Question- When the license numbers are pulled for a controlled hunt, does a computer randomly select ONE number at a time, or does it pull ALL the license numbers for the particular hunt at one time?
If it pulls one number at a time, saying that a persons "odds" for a tag are 1/4 or whatever for a hunt that has 10 tags and 40 applicants is completely bogus. When there is 1 tag remaining and 39 applicants left in the pool, it is a far cry from 1/4.
A person only has a 1/4 chance for the first tag and then the odds get worse.

Does anyone know how the actual computer system works to pull license numbers for tags?
If they pull all the license number at one time, then the odds theoretically stay consistent.
 

d3ntalbliss

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Oct 31, 2016
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I'm a resident of Idaho, so I'm familiar with every aspect of our draw system, except for one thing that I can't get an answer on.
So, maybe I can get clarification here.
Question- When the license numbers are pulled for a controlled hunt, does a computer randomly select ONE number at a time, or does it pull ALL the license numbers for the particular hunt at one time?
If it pulls one number at a time, saying that a persons "odds" for a tag are 1/4 or whatever for a hunt that has 10 tags and 40 applicants is completely bogus. When there is 1 tag remaining and 39 applicants left in the pool, it is a far cry from 1/4.
A person only has a 1/4 chance for the first tag and then the odds get worse.

Does anyone know how the actual computer system works to pull license numbers for tags?
If they pull all the license number at one time, then the odds theoretically stay consistent.
Statistics gurus may weigh in but the odds would be additive for each tag drawn assuming it's one tag or license number at a time.

So given the example you used 40 applicants 10 tags. At first draw you have a 1 in 40 shot. Assuming your not drawn next tag you have a 1 in 39 shot so on and so forth. You do that math and I'm guessing your end up right at your 1 in 4 chance of being drawn.

Stats gurus weigh in please.

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Idaho Brad

Idaho Brad

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Joined
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Messages
291
Location
Rose Lake, Id
Statistics gurus may weigh in but the odds would be additive for each tag drawn assuming it's one tag or license number at a time.

So given the example you used 40 applicants 10 tags. At first draw you have a 1 in 40 shot. Assuming your not drawn next tag you have a 1 in 39 shot so on and so forth. You do that math and I'm guessing your end up right at your 1 in 4 chance of being drawn.

Stats gurus weigh in please.

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You still would end up with 31 names in for the final tag, so not sure how the odds ever really come to 25%?
We need a statistical analyzer type to weigh in, like you suggested. The way my simple brain works it out, I only see 25% odds if all license numbers are pulled at one time for all tags........
 

d3ntalbliss

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You still would end up with 31 names in for the final tag, so not sure how the odds ever really come to 25%?
We need a statistical analyzer type to weigh in, like you suggested. The way my simple brain works it out, I only see 25% odds if all license numbers are pulled at one time for all tags........
It doesn't matter because if your name isn't pulled in that last tag available you now have 0% chance.

1/40= 2.5% chance
1/39= 2.56%
1/38= 2.63%
1/37= 2.7%
1/36= 2.78%
1/35= 2.85%
1/34= 2.94%
1/33= 3%
1/32= 3.13%
1/31= 3.22%

Add those together and you get an overall draw odd of approximately 28% whatever that means. Of course if you look at just one snapshot and opportunity your odds are around that 2 to 3% range as illustrated above. But it's the summation of all those draw opportunities that get you up there.

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Idaho Brad

Idaho Brad

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Rose Lake, Id
It doesn't matter because if your name isn't pulled in that last tag available you now have 0% chance.

1/40= 2.5% chance
1/39= 2.56%
1/38= 2.63%
1/37= 2.7%
1/36= 2.78%
1/35= 2.85%
1/34= 2.94%
1/33= 3%
1/32= 3.13%
1/31= 3.22%

Add those together and you get an overall draw odd of approximately 28% whatever that means. Of course if you look at just one snapshot and opportunity your odds are around that 2 to 3% range as illustrated above. But it's the summation of all those draw opportunities that get you up there.

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I'm not worried about the summation of percentages. If Actual opportunity for a tag has a percentage of 2.5% on average, the odds are horrible even for a seemingly easy tag to draw. I'm really not worried about it at all (It's just a tag) but, have always been curious how the computer system actually pulls the numbers. That is my main question.
 

d3ntalbliss

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I'm not worried about the summation of percentages. If Actual opportunity for a tag has a percentage of 2.5% on average, the odds are horrible even for a seemingly easy tag to draw. I'm really not worried about it at all (It's just a tag) but, have always been curious how the computer system actually pulls the numbers. That is my main question.
Your stating the odds aren't what they seem, when in fact they are. You can't ignore the math, and you can't just look at one point in the series. The statistical odds that you draw are a either 25% if all drawn and selected at once or the summation of odds your number being called in a "series" of drawings.

As far as how the computer does it I can't say, but either way your odds are almost the same. I honestly don't think it can pull all at once due to possible group applicants, non residents etc.

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TheTone

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Mar 4, 2012
Messages
478
Here is the way I understand it to work. All applicants for a species are assigned a random number. A computer then randomizes the order of the numbers and draws the tags from that list. It checks each number in order and if a tag is available for that number you draw, if it gets to your number and the tags have already been filled by numbers ahead of you it skips over you and moves to the next number.
 

theleo91386

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Eastern Washington
10 tags 40 applicants. 10 applicants are getting tags (25%) and 30 applicants (75%) are hoping someone forgets to buy their tag before the deadline. Over enough years you should end up with a tag 1/4 times. The issue that everyone forgets is that with it being random (no point system) is that if you put in for 40 years, draw nothing the first 30, then get drawn every year for the last ten it can still be considered random, just not probable. The whole thing would end up looking like a bell curve through the applicants on who gets drawn the most though. Some guys are really lucky and get drawn every other year, or 2 out of 3 years, they represent one end of the bell curve (the good end). Some guys have terrible luck and hardly ever get drawn, they represent the other end of the curve (the bad end). Then there's the majority who put in year after year and end up drawing the tag 25% of the time.
 
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