Idaho harvest stats, accurate??

[JRMiller]

While doing some research for the 2021 season, i was reviewing harvest stats for all units general deer for 2019
The numbers i see are very low, averaging just %24 for Any Legal Weapon, even lower for archery/muzzy
Those numbers seem way low to me
Does Idahos F&G harvest scoring process just suck?
Do a lot of hunters under report?
Did Idaho just have a terrible 2019?

 

[TheTone]

There is no penalty to not report or for lying on a report unfortunately. The success rates probably aren’t too far off though. I’ve never really looked at the archery or muzzleloader success rates around where I live but I would expect success rates are very, very low as not many people really participate. I would wager near me almost all of the archery deer hunting is essentially incidental to elk hunting

 

[Customweld]

By and large, I would say yes. You have to know some folks are less than truthful on their reporting, but I don’t think it would be enough to throw the percentage off to far. 2018 and 2019 have both been off back to back hard winters, so I believe the low percentage is reflected in that.

 

[Raghornklr]

24% is low to you? Hell , where have you been hunting.

 

[Dioni A]

I would think that's pretty close. Things aren't looking that good for a good chunk of Idaho. Deer numbers are down and it's going to be a while before we see what we had in 2015 and 2016 again.

 

[Rob5589]

Likely not far off. Last couple years have been worse than the previous couple years for myself and partners. Still plenty of does it seems but buck numbers continue to decline. DC for reference.

 

[Brianb3]

24% is outstanding. 1 in 4 hunters harvest.

With out the option of a second tag this year I wonder if I’m that number will go down?

I will sure miss my second tag this year. Extra meet is always enjoyable.


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[Blackcats06]

Yeah where do you hunt that 24% hunt success is bad? Most states manage for 20% ish...

 

[Wassid82]

Yes. While some people lie or under or over report their harvest the Law of Large Numbers.....The law of large numbers, in probability and statistics, states that as a sample size grows, its mean gets closer to the average of the whole population. In the 16th century, mathematician Gerolama Cardano recognized the Law of Large Numbers but never proved it. In 1713, Swiss mathematician Jakob Bernoulli proved this theorem in his book, Ars Conjectandi.

At a state aggregate level their number of surveys would mean their harvest numbers are highly accurate.

 

[KurtR]

Yeah where do you hunt that 24% hunt success is bad? Most states manage for 20% ish...

I had look for South Dakota this is from 2016 but our average harvest is 43% and that’s with archery counted in.

But comparing the two states is like apples and oranges. Idaho is way way way harder to hunt

 

[87TT]

The truth is it it actually lower. The dfg always figure in a certain percentage for possible under reporting.

 

[JRMiller]

There is no penalty to not report or for lying on a report unfortunately. The success rates probably aren’t too far off though. I’ve never really looked at the archery or muzzleloader success rates around where I live but I would expect success rates are very, very low as not many people really participate. I would wager near me almost all of the archery deer hunting is essentially incidental to elk hunting

Thanks, that makes sense

 

[JRMiller]

I would think that's pretty close. Things aren't looking that good for a good chunk of Idaho. Deer numbers are down and it's going to be a while before we see what we had in 2015 and 2016 again.

Thanks. Sounds like many are confirming some bad winters so the numbers make sense in that regard

 

[JRMiller]

24% is low to you? Hell , where have you been hunting.

You just made me feel a whole lot better !
I consider my self a mediocre hunter and while i dont want forkies and not looking for trophies either i average %40

 

[JRMiller]

24% is low to you? Hell , where have you been hunting.

Utah Wyoming Colorado. Never been to Idaho yet

 

[JRMiller]

24% is outstanding. 1 in 4 hunters harvest.

With out the option of a second tag this year I wonder if I’m that number will go down?

I will sure miss my second tag this year. Extra meet is always enjoyable.


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Thanks. The two tags has me wondering now if many residents are simply buying two tags but once they bag buck #1 they call it good enough and go home

 

[Brianb3]

My guess and imo the majority of people who buy two tags know how to get it done on two. My guess since there’s a ton of new people hunting Idaho and no one with second tags there’s a possibility of that harvest rate dropping further. Which is probably a good thing. Idaho hunting is not easy. I hunt easy places. Idaho can be a grind. I like that.


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[Jim Carr]

1 reason Idaho stats show up lower. Is the fish and game method of recording statistics they ask everyone which units you hunt in if you hunt in 4 different units and harvest in 1 unit the other 3 units will still be recorded as unsuccessful.

 

[bluetick78]

1 in 4 sounds about right. Doing a mental survey of hunters I know puts it more like 1 in 6, but I'd definitely believe 24% harvested. Bad winters, heavy pressure on sagging populations and 24%is what you end up with. Should be interesting this fall to see if it "feels" like there's more hunters out there. After talking to acquaintances at F&G it sounds like they are selling tons more resident licenses thus far this year, and non res is sold out. Could be a busy fall.

 

[Mossyhorns51]

Lot of deer and elk in Idaho go unreported and Untagged whole lot of poaching going on in certain units