Kifarucast/ Don jr episode

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My mistake. I guess they've brought back over 2 million bpd since April 1 and they're forecasting demand to go up as it usually does this time of year. If they want to keep prices balanced they'll have to increase production again. If they cut production back and simultaneously predict demand to go up 6 bpd during the next 2 months, prices will jump substantially.

Not really. We export a lot of our own oil because it works better for certain uses. If I have time today I'll try and find an old article that breaks down our oil imports and exports.

But, basically there's a lot stuff that uses oil right? Tires, toys, plastics, fuels...all sorts of things. A lot of the oil produced in the US works well for certain things but not others. Hence, why we don't have dirt cheap gas. We're still reliant on opec and the world oil market to stabilize price as we don't have the production to do it ourselves.

Also, and this is speculative, it's estimated that even if Biden curbs future fracking or federal permits and it makes it through the courts (because it will probably be litigated) it will still have a fairly minor impact on the world oil market and it will be more of a restriction on growth than it will on supply. Lots of good info from reputable sources on this subject as it's really been a talking point since Obama came into office.

It should be noted, I'm not saying a president can't have any effect on prices, I'm just saying up to this point we haven't seen presidential action that we can point a finger at and say that was an isolated action or decision, that uniquely affected prices.
I’m totally understand all that. However, To simplify reality, when our oil production decreases oil supplies for our buyers, who’s stepping in and selling to them?

OPEC has openly stated in the past, they control supply to keep the price up. Given that reality with Simple economics, I can’t see any logic to your reasoning a US presidents policy has no impact on oil prices.
 
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brocksw

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I’m totally understand all that. However, To simplify reality, when our oil production decreases oil supplies for our buyers, who’s stepping in and selling to them?

OPEC has openly stated in the past, they control supply to keep the price up. Given that reality with Simple economics, I can’t see any logic to your reasoning a US presidents policy has no impact on oil prices.
Well, like I said earlier...its not that it can't happen or that's its impossible. Just that up to this point there's been no substantial decision that was unique to Trump or Biden that would've drastically affected oil prices. Stock prices might fluctuate on emotion and sentiment (speculation) and that in turn might change how those companies prioritize long term revenue vs short term profit for share holders. But still pretty minor on a global scale in terms of supply/demand or market price.

If Biden comes out and starts a war with Iran, pulls aid and military support from the Saudis.....I dunno makes gasoline Cars illegal for an extreme example...then yes his policies could have a drastic effect. But in general, the run of the mill policies that we've seen so far that have been fairly predictable and are somewhat politics as usual...not so much effect.
 
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brocksw

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I work overseas in the KSA oilfields for the last 10 years. Its my opinion one of the things that hurt us here in the US oilfield was our efficiency. We got so good at all activities that we had over 3000 DUCs at one point. ( drilled but uncompleted).
That's a great point. We've kind of peaked out on technology for drilling wells.
 
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Well, like I said earlier...its not that it can't happen or that's its impossible. Just that up to this point there's been no substantial decision that was unique to Trump or Biden that would've drastically affected oil prices. Stock prices might fluctuate on emotion and sentiment (speculation) and that in turn might change how those companies prioritize long term revenue vs short term profit for share holders. But still pretty minor on a global scale in terms of supply/demand or market price.

If Biden comes out and starts a war with Iran, pulls aid and military support from the Saudis.....I dunno makes gasoline Cars illegal for an extreme example...then yes his policies could have a drastic effect. But in general, the run of the mill policies that we've seen so far that have been fairly predictable and are somewhat politics as usual...not so much effect.
Biden’s first term withstanding I reckon.
 

Shupe88

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I keep hearing and reading about how Jr. is the real deal. I’m not calling anyone, especially Aron, a liar on that. I just wanted some actual hunting or technical talk to be able to make that judgement for myself.

I also would’ve liked some more specifics on what Trump did to benefit hunters while in office. It was vaguely referenced and glossed over. According to most of the info out there, it seems like sportsman were an afterthought to industry. Jr. did little to refute that. None of this is remotely new or unique, just more of the same. For the talk about how good it was to have a hunter that close to the president, I’d like to listen to some discussion on what the actual benefit was.

What has Biden done? What will he do for the hunter? He sucks at everything else so I don’t see him helping us either!


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This podcast, like Don Jr., is insufferable.

I cannot, for the life of me, understand why we jump on any effing bandwagon we can when someone is an "advocate" courtesy of some cute coattails from their predecessor. 10 years ago, no one on this forum would have said Don Jr. represents us -- now he's somehow the posterchild and we're all supposed to ignore what he came from?

Where I come from, who you are is what you've done and this guy hasn't done shit to be an "advocate." Anyone, PLEASE, tell me what his personal trials and tribulations were? What midnight oil was he burning to hone his craft? Wait....what is his craft? I'm confused as to what Don Jr. is actually an expert on....other than bullshitting because he is pure genius at that. Real Estate? Nah, that's inherited. Politics? Same. What is Don Jr.'s calling that he's pursued for years?

Anyone?

So he's hunted as an adult. Right on, good for him. How does this suddenly make him qualified to speak on any decision that has any management implications? Fine, you want someone that shouts "Don't take my guns!" from a loud speaker? No qualifications necessary. But let's not pretend that this Don Jr. has any clue what legal, ecological, biological, or other implications could possibly be involved in Pebble, Proposition 114 in CO, or greenhouse gas emission standards.

And Don Jr. is the real deal? What? Don Jr. LITERALLY inherited a fortune in time and money and because he knows his arrow weight and momentum and can shoot a stick bow he's the real deal? Oh, sorry, and he goes on a sheep hunt a year which, of course, is mandatory to be a real deal.

The podcast was a waist of time and I'm pissed I ruined my chorizo tacos listening to it. How do you even ruin chorizo? I'll tell you, you hover over your phone for an hour and cuss the whole time while your wife says "I thought you loved kifaru" "THAT"S NOT THE POINT HONEY."

Rant over.

Post Script: Kifaru still makes a great pack because they are experts at pack building.
Your TDS is strong. Maybe dig a little deeper; he talks about his past and how he got into the outdoors from spending summers in Ukraine with his maternal grandfather.
 
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What has Biden done? What will he do for the hunter? He sucks at everything else so I don’t see him helping us either!


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At what point did anyone say Biden was good for hunting? Has anyone suggested he would benefit us in any way?

It’s amazing that the best case that’s been made *for* Trump being good for hunters came from someone who doesn’t seem to outwardly support Trump. Those that do immediately deflect and make it about Biden or Hunter.

Can’t even ask a simple question without a bunch of supposed adults whining like petulant children.
 

fatlander

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Don could go sheep hunting all season long, every year and never notice it in his balance sheet. He doesn’t have to give a shit about the common man hunting public land. The fact that he’s remotely interested in making sure the common man can continue to do it is enough for me. Some of the other folks he rubs elbows with think you should only be allowed to eat a few cheese burgers per year, and they own more farmland than everyone on rokslide put together.
 

Shupe88

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At what point did anyone say Biden was good for hunting? Has anyone suggested he would benefit us in any way?

It’s amazing that the best case that’s been made *for* Trump being good for hunters came from someone who doesn’t seem to outwardly support Trump. Those that do immediately deflect and make it about Biden or Hunter.

Can’t even ask a simple question without a bunch of supposed adults whining like petulant children.

I’m not whining whatsoever! I just asked you a simple question….. That you won’t be able to answer.


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I’m not whining whatsoever! I just asked you a simple question….. That you won’t be able to answer.


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Ehh, the whining part was a lot more directed at some earlier posters than you.

But again, not one person has suggested Biden is or will be good for hunters. No one is making a comparison between Biden and Trump, or Hunter and Jr. Sure has been a lot of deflection though.

Since you asked, I do think opting not to put a land transfer advocate in charge of the BLM is a clear step in the right direction for us mere mortals who can’t afford landowner tags every year.
 

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Ehh, the whining part was a lot more directed at some earlier posters than you.

But again, not one person has suggested Biden is or will be good for hunters. No one is making a comparison between Biden and Trump, or Hunter and Jr. Sure has been a lot of deflection though.

Since you asked, I do think opting not to put a land transfer advocate in charge of the BLM is a clear step in the right direction for us mere mortals who can’t afford landowner tags every year.
If I had a choice between a land advocate that has a history of being an editor for an ecoterrorist rag that got caught spiking trees and opened up development for a real estate developer and later received a below-market loan from the same developer, and a "land transfer advocate" who would have a fight in front of him to do so, I think I might sway towards the land transfer advocate.
 

Shupe88

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Ehh, the whining part was a lot more directed at some earlier posters than you.

But again, not one person has suggested Biden is or will be good for hunters. No one is making a comparison between Biden and Trump, or Hunter and Jr. Sure has been a lot of deflection though.

Since you asked, I do think opting not to put a land transfer advocate in charge of the BLM is a clear step in the right direction for us mere mortals who can’t afford landowner tags every year.

So the eco terrorist is a good choice?? Come on man!


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If I had a choice between a land advocate that has a history of being an editor for an ecoterrorist rag that got caught spiking trees and opened up development for a real estate developer and later received a below-market loan from the same developer, and a "land transfer advocate" who would have a fight in front of him to do so, I think I might sway towards the land transfer advocate.
So the eco terrorist is a good choice?? Come on man!


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Considering what she’s done since, and the number of conservation orgs who’ve supported her, I’m not overly concerned.
 

gelton

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Considering what she’s done since, and the number of conservation orgs who’ve supported her, I’m not overly concerned.
Even Obamas BLM director is against the nomination.

 
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Even Obamas BLM director is against the nomination.


While I admit to knowing very little about the BLM’s dealings under him, it doesn’t seem like I should care what he thinks.

EDIT: I mean it when I say I do not know. He could’ve been a great protector of public lands, fighting the good fight and all that. Regardless, I’ll default to judging her off of the more recent history. As far as I can tell, it’s a pretty damn good record for the last 20+ years.

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