Lookin for a honey hole

[willfrye027]

I’ll admit that I’ve been prone to paranoia when it comes to talking about specific units on the internet. Plenty of anecdotal evidence about how “so and so” blew up a unit by talking about it in a magazine/podcast/blog/forum. Does anyone have any hard evidence of this occurring? For instance, I thought “my” unit in Wyoming was suffering from bad point creep and loose lips. But I’ve compared the trends to other general units in the same ballpark and it’s really just on par. My theory is that in a larger unit with say, 1000 tags or more, a few loose lips won’t sink the ship. Of course, specific locations are a completely different story. Any body have good evidence of a unit getting really burned?

 

[menhaden_man]

I’d be curious about how Eastman’s picks influence WY odds if anyone has time to look.

 

[menhaden_man]

 

[willfrye027]

I’d be curious about how Eastman’s picks influence WY odds if anyone has time to look.

Pick a unit and I’ll look into it after work. Of course, you would be posting up someones honey hole on the Internet....

 

[Wapiti1]

I would say that the points and difficulty of drawing a tag haven't changed the odds in LE drawings as much as they have pushed people to the OTC units. There are a lot of threads on here detailing the exasperation of endless points gathering. Some jump ship, others keep at it, but almost all still hunt OTC, or easy to draw.

I'd look at hunter numbers over time for, say Tex Creek units, or Palisades units in idaho. Used to be the OTC tags were available into the summer. Now, you have to hope to get one in December and pray you clicked before the system crashed. Needing points to draw a WY or MT general elk tag is another example.

The best LE units were always known, and always had poor odds.

Jeremy

 

[WCB]

i'd say a pretty simple parallel to this would be just look at social media when someone hunts a trendy new species. Auodad, coues deer, goin to New Zealand (stag, Tahr). Also look at shed hunting. like all the previously mentioned hunts people have always done them but once a "influencer" posts about it the bandwagon fills up pretty fast.

Now it may not be exactly unit specific but it becomes trendy and in general more people that had little interest in it before jump in. Just like the MEME above it happens in fishing all the time to think hunting is any different is foolish. This is my opinion.

 

[menhaden_man]

Pick a unit and I’ll look into it after work. Of course, you would be posting up someones honey hole on the Internet....

He pointed out 25 and 27 as best low point options for elk in 2018.

Guy’s 2018 Top Wyoming Elk Hunts - Eastmans' Official Blog | Mule Deer, Antelope, Elk Hunting and Bowhunting Magazine | Eastmans' Hunting Journals

The elk herd in Wyoming has fared very well these past few years. The 2016 surveys have put most of

blog.eastmans.com

 

[willfrye027]

i'd say a pretty simple parallel to this would be just look at social media when someone hunts a trendy new species. Auodad, coues deer, goin to New Zealand (stag, Tahr). Also look at shed hunting. like all the previously mentioned hunts people have always done them but once a "influencer" posts about it the bandwagon fills up pretty fast.

Now it may not be exactly unit specific but it becomes trendy and in general more people that had little interest in it before jump in. Just like the MEME above it happens in fishing all the time to think hunting is any different is foolish. This is my opinion.

I think people hunting out of state has definitely become more popular, and applying in multiple states. Point creep is bad across the board. I can see with sheds, AZ otc, etc as well. what I’m skeptical of is that name dropping a specific unit or large area would change the draw odds in any meaningful way.

 

[HuntInWild88]

I have seen it first hand! There was a specific WMA that I hunted turkeys in. Yes you would see people in it no big deal... however NWTF did an article calling out this specific WMA for a great place to get your RIO's and the next few years I saw a pretty good increase.. but you know what i say.. Awesome!!!! Get more people traveling spending money on our great sport!! The more the merrier!! The people we can get to love our sport and support our industry they better...is there more competition yes!! It makes me have to be a better hunter! I Love It!!!

 

[Molon Labe]

There are about 40% less hunters today than there was in the mid80s.
The number of hunters has been decreasing steadily over the past 30 years...

Majority of people don't get their information for hunting spots off podcasts or internet forums.
They rely on word of mouth and their circle of friends...

I don't see how they could cause much of an impact to odds.

 

[Nickofthewoods]

As far as States and Species goes, the internet, podcasts, and social media have to be the largest most obvious culprits in increased information. As for specific locations like a good drainage, it's all about who you show. Even my own friends and family, knowing a spot was one I found through hard work and scouting, have gone back with complete strangers, thus starting the domino effect.

 

[wytx]

I’d be curious about how Eastman’s picks influence WY odds if anyone has time to look.

Hope it does, they regularly state one elk area as having mostly private land and give it an F for access. Hope everyone believes it.

 

[Dos Perros]

He pointed out 25 and 27 as best low point options for elk in 2018.

Guy’s 2018 Top Wyoming Elk Hunts - Eastmans' Official Blog | Mule Deer, Antelope, Elk Hunting and Bowhunting Magazine | Eastmans' Hunting Journals

The elk herd in Wyoming has fared very well these past few years. The 2016 surveys have put most of

blog.eastmans.com

In 2017 it took 3.5 points to draw in the special. In 2018, after being featured in the blog post you referenced, it took 3.5 points to draw in the special.

Then, in 2019, it jumped to 5.5 points. But, if you go back to 2015, you could have had it for 2 points in the special.
So, it just seems like regular old point creep with perhaps a slight influence. Tough to say with any certainty I'd guess.

 

[ThinkLeicaBuck]

I’ll admit that I’ve been prone to paranoia when it comes to talking about specific units on the internet. Plenty of anecdotal evidence about how “so and so” blew up a unit by talking about it in a magazine/podcast/blog/forum. Does anyone have any hard evidence of this occurring? For instance, I thought “my” unit in Wyoming was suffering from bad point creep and loose lips. But I’ve compared the trends to other general units in the same ballpark and it’s really just on par. My theory is that in a larger unit with say, 1000 tags or more, a few loose lips won’t sink the ship. Of course, specific locations are a completely different story. Any body have good evidence of a unit getting really burned?

The problem is... hunters are really emotional. If they have a bad season they like to have something to blame it on. (Utards, outofstaters, etc.) I have quit listening to the negative from others and focus on my own positivity. Even after I have a rough season.

 

[mtnwrunner]

I wish we would stop talking about it, period.

Randy

 

[ndbuck09]

I've found that people that don't take hunting very seriously in practice but love to talk about hunting like they're diehard are the ones who will take random people to spots you took them to. It's almost as if since they don't view hunting as a big deal, they don't think it's a big deal to share your spot with another one of their friends that you don't even know. And when this happens, there's no way I can view that person in the same light ever again.

 

[idahohikker]

Yes, some areas get blown up. I'm not going to further add to it by mentioning them specifically but if you aren't able to find some places that have huge swings in draw odds, then you aren't spending any time researching odds.

Also, an area I hunted for a few years OTC went from 4-5 trucks on a stretch of road to 20 after the area was mentioned by several influential people. I don't see it going back with how popular it is.

An OTC area family used to hunt had tags that were always available without huge demand. Now you have to log on exactly when the tags are sold and just hope your computer is faster than anyone else. This was all due to increased demand in the area due to people talking about it and a year when success rates were really good.

 

[Broomd]

I have seen it first hand! There was a specific WMA that I hunted turkeys in. Yes you would see people in it no big deal... however NWTF did an article calling out this specific WMA for a great place to get your RIO's and the next few years I saw a pretty good increase.. but you know what i say.. Awesome!!!! Get more people traveling spending money on our great sport!! The more the merrier!! The people we can get to love our sport and support our industry they better...is there more competition yes!! It makes me have to be a better hunter! I Love It!!!

lol...'the more the merrier'..

That's gotta be the biggest pile of bull sh t I've ever read on a public forum.
The reality is completely different. Tags are purchased out of necessity and little more from the hosting state these days.
It's been discussed here at length.

 

[willfrye027]

Yes, some areas get blown up. I'm not going to further add to it by mentioning them specifically but if you aren't able to find some places that have huge swings in draw odds, then you aren't spending any time researching odds.

Also, an area I hunted for a few years OTC went from 4-5 trucks on a stretch of road to 20 after the area was mentioned by several influential people. I don't see it going back with how popular it is.

An OTC area family used to hunt had tags that were always available without huge demand. Now you have to log on exactly when the tags are sold and just hope your computer is faster than anyone else. This was all due to increased demand in the area due to people talking about it and a year when success rates were really good.

I’ve done a fair amount of research on the states and areas that I want to hunt. Plus I’ve followed some particular odds and success rates in my home state for about 12 years. What I’ve found is a general uptick in points required to draw. One unit that got blown up online, in the early forum days where people would post very specific info...point creep went from 2 points required to 7 this year in about 8 years time. I was sure it was the Internet but turns out LESS people were actually applying for the tag, but tag quota was cut and point creep was getting bad in the whole state.

How do you know other OTC units haven’t experienced the same crowding? My point in all of this is that I think zone secrecy paranoia is overblown and we have in general more people hunting out of state and hunting harder, rather than groups of people running from “hot” zone to zone.

 

[idahohikker]

I’ve done a fair amount of research on the states and areas that I want to hunt. Plus I’ve followed some particular odds and success rates in my home state for about 12 years. What I’ve found is a general uptick in points required to draw. One unit that got blown up online, in the early forum days where people would post very specific info...point creep went from 2 points required to 7 this year in about 8 years time. I was sure it was the Internet but turns out LESS people were actually applying for the tag, but tag quota was cut and point creep was getting bad in the whole state.

How do you know other OTC units haven’t experienced the same crowding? My point in all of this is that I think zone secrecy paranoia is overblown and we have in general more people hunting out of state and hunting harder, rather than groups of people running from “hot” zone to zone.

Yeah so there is some of both. If you want examples of units that have doubled in hunter numbers or points required, it doesn't take much research.

The examples I shared are from Idaho and have not been influenced by decreased tags in the area, just an increase in popularity.

Heck, try to find a place in Wyoming that isn't experiencing significant point creep and some area more than others. Multiple places I was interested in scouting and applying for have been experiencing point creep in the 1.5-2x range in the last few years. Not going to catch up no matter what.