Montana Draw Results - Aug 5

[Andrew12gauge]

Question, regarding refunds, do they return funds to your card or do they send a check. Also how long does Montana usually take?


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[PablitoPescador]

Question, regarding refunds, do they return funds to your card or do they send a check. Also how long does Montana usually take?


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It's always a check and it usually takes about a week or two in my experience.

 

[mtblackdog]

The draw for 2021 Montana Antelope and Antelope B is August 5.

The deadline for Montana Antelope and Antelope B was June 1. The Montana website states "Drawings will be completed approximately two weeks after the deadlines." One would assume that means about June 15, but it's not. At least the archery "900" draw took place last week.

Montana Licensing told me that the date on the website is wrong and that the date is indeed August 5. Seems like it would be easier to fix the website instead of taking piles of phone calls about this. At least they answer the phone reliably, are friendly and always provide me accurate information.

In any event, come back here on August 5 if you manage to draw - or not. Good luck!

 

[cgasner1]

Wonder how long till the draw odds are released for this year

It appears it’s posted in the hunt planner region 7 went from 8700ish to 6000 that’s a big cut

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[Erict]

The "Antelope Drawing Statistics Report" is good for comparison on what the total quotas are and how many applied. I would be surprised to not see a big increase in applicants that will only continue for years to come. However, the report does not really tell the full story because it does not reflect BONUS points.
(*Update - bsnedeker has since pointed me to the report that does reflect bonus points.. - Thanks)

For example, say Montana district "ABC" has a quota of 2000 Antelope tags. Nonresident quota is 10%, or 200 tags. Say 1000 NR applied for that area, with 700 first choice. You would see about 200 tags issued to first choice and none for second or third. It tells one nothing about how many "total" names were in the "drawing hat". One might conclude "I had 200/1000 chances to draw that tag", which is far from true because of BONUS points.

Think of the draw like a big ole cowboy hat where names are thrown in and drawn out of. Let's use a simple example where 1 tag is available and 3 hunters apply. You might assume that you have 1/3 chances of drawing, which is not true:

Hunter A has no bonus points so 1 point for current application = 1 chance in the hat.
Hunter B has 3 bonus points, so 3 "squared" = 9 + 1 point for current application = 10 chances in the hat.
Hunter C has 5 bonus points, so 5 "squared" = 25 + 1 point for current application = 26 chances in the hat.

So, there are NOT 3 names in the drawing hat, there are 37.

Hunter A has 1/37 chance of drawing (3%)
Hunter B has 10/37 chance of drawing (27%)
Hunter C has 26/37 chance of drawing (70%)

In a bigger hypothetical draw, assuming the average applicant has 2 bonus points, the number of "names in the hat" per hunter is 2 squared (4) + 1 for current application = 5. Assuming 1000 applicants, all with the average of 5 points, that means 5000 names in the hat vying for 200 tags. In a real world draw, some may have a lot of bonus points and some none and their chances reflect that. Regardless, in this type of random draw, if you have "your name in the hat" at least once you have a chance of drawing.

This also shows that there is no such thing as "guaranteed" tags when talking about Montana BONUS points, but there are circumstances where tags are all but "guaranteed" when talking about Montana PREFERENCE points.

 

[ztk17]

Lucked out on the region 7 tag, but haven't hunted out there in a decade. Now the fun (stressful) part of trying to decide where to go in a serious drought year begins!

 

[bsnedeker]

The "Antelope Drawing Statistics Report" is good for comparison on what the total quotas are and how many applied. I would be surprised to not see a big increase in applicants that will only continue for years to come. However, the report does not really tell the full story because it does not reflect BONUS points.

For example, say Montana district "ABC" has a quota of 2000 Antelope tags. Nonresident quota is 10%, or 200 tags. Say 1000 NR applied for that area, with 700 first choice. You would see about 200 tags issued to first choice and none for second or third. It tells one nothing about how many "total" names were in the "drawing hat". One might conclude "I had 200/1000 chances to draw that tag", which is far from true because of BONUS points.

Think of the draw like a big ole cowboy hat where names are thrown in and drawn out of. Let's use a simple example where 1 tag is available and 3 hunters apply. You might assume that you have 1/3 chances of drawing, which is not true:

Hunter A has no bonus points so 1 point for current application = 1 chance in the hat.
Hunter B has 3 bonus points, so 3 "squared" = 9 + 1 point for current application = 10 chances in the hat.
Hunter C has 5 bonus points, so 5 "squared" = 25 + 1 point for current application = 26 chances in the hat.

So, there are NOT 3 names in the drawing hat, there are 37.

Hunter A has 1/37 chance of drawing (3%)
Hunter B has 10/37 chance of drawing (27%)
Hunter C has 26/37 chance of drawing (70%)

In a bigger hypothetical draw, assuming the average applicant has 2 bonus points, the number of "names in the hat" per hunter is 2 squared (4) + 1 for current application = 5. Assuming 1000 applicants, all with the average of 5 points, that means 5000 names in the hat vying for 200 tags. In a real world draw, some may have a lot of bonus points and some none and their chances reflect that. Regardless, in this type of random draw, if you have "your name in the hat" at least once you have a chance of drawing.

This also shows that there is no such thing as "guaranteed" tags when talking about Montana BONUS points, but there are circumstances where tags are all but "guaranteed" when talking about Montana PREFERENCE points.

They post the detailed bonus point drawing results every year so it's not hard to figure out what happened. What is impossible to know is what your odds will be in the current year because they can change the number of tags every year.

And just to be clear, there is no preference point system for antelope in Montana. Antelope use the squared bonus point system you describe above. The preference point system is only used for the general deer and elk licenses for non residents. I'm sure you know this but I just want to clarify for others since there is always so much confusion around it.

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[brad407210]

I ended up with the region 7 tag as a nonresident, but I did have 4 points. I can't go until after the 2nd weekend of the season so I feel like it's time to start lowering my standards.

 

[suda0402]

Wonder how long till the draw odds are released for this year

It appears it’s posted in the hunt planner region 7 went from 8700ish to 6000 that’s a big cut

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And B tags went from 1500 to 150

 

[TradLife406]

Listen up kids...

Land access > personality

Hahaha yep

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[Sheepeater]

I drew in the Centennial Valley this year. One of the most beautiful places I’ve ever hunted.

 

[Mt Al]

I drew in the Centennial Valley this year. One of the most beautiful places I’ve ever hunted.

Congratulations!! My friend drew there a few years ago, stuck to archery tackle and didn't connect but saw plenty and would have tagged one if he brought a rifle.

I drew in a 300 district and my access area is hit or miss, but stoked to chase speed goats!

 

[jordanrw23]

Me, my wife, & son all drew 401 tags this year but did have 3 points each.


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[Kjenkins011]

No luck

 

[TwentyFive-Yard]

Drew 338 one my first choice using no points. Lucky I guess. Got a nice one off of some BMA.