For example, if I apply for elk and ibex in New Mexico and my odds for drawing an elk tag are 10% and the odds of drawing an ibex tag are 2%, what are the odds that I draw at least one of those tags?

I appreciate any insight, thanks in advance.

- Thread starter @fulldraw
- Start date

For example, if I apply for elk and ibex in New Mexico and my odds for drawing an elk tag are 10% and the odds of drawing an ibex tag are 2%, what are the odds that I draw at least one of those tags?

I appreciate any insight, thanks in advance.

- If all the events happen (an "and question")
**Multiply**the probabilities together. - If only one of the events happens (an "or question")
**Add**the probabilities together

Yes, I googled it, so don't PM me w math problems, please and thanks.

Wow

In this case, 10% +2% = 12% odds of drawing either tag. If this were expressed as a word problem, your answer would be "slim to none."

- If all the events happen (an "and question")
Multiplythe probabilities together.- If only one of the events happens (an "or question")
Addthe probabilities together

Yes, I googled it, so don't PM me w math problems, please and thanks.

Its too bad we need to be Statistics majors to figure whether we can draw a tag or not. /grin

I ran a similar question by my college kids that aced their calculus and statistics classes....Sorry but all I remember, is..... its not a simple answer

I believe that is only true if the events are dependent, ie the chance of rolling a 1 or 6 in a dice roll is 1/6 + 1/6. If the events are independent they are not additive. OP has the odds that are given, 10% and 2%.

In this case, 10% +2% = 12% odds of drawing either tag. If this were expressed as a word problem, your answer would be "slim to none."

- If all the events happen (an "and question")
Multiplythe probabilities together.- If only one of the events happens (an "or question")
Addthe probabilities together

Yes, I googled it, so don't PM me w math problems, please and thanks.

Here is a basic calculation I found for different Raffle draws. It went through a bunch of chances at one draw, or multiple chances in different draws. Def seems like putting in more draws adds to your chances. Here we can put up to 6 per species all on one tag is wanted, maybe all on one tag isn’t the best plan as I have done on some tags in the past.

The calculations here were all 6 in one drawing or 1 in each drawing. Upped your chance of one win based on their math from 2 to to 2.4%.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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- Jun 17, 2017

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Multiple the odds of not drawing. Subtract from 1 to find the odds of drawing something.

In your example 10% elk, 2% Ibex = 90% no elk, 98% no ibex

.9x.98=.882= 88.2% chance of drawing neither.

1-.882=.118=11.8% chance of drawing something, including the 0.2% chance of drawing both.

In your example 10% elk, 2% Ibex = 90% no elk, 98% no ibex

.9x.98=.882= 88.2% chance of drawing neither.

1-.882=.118=11.8% chance of drawing something, including the 0.2% chance of drawing both.

Last edited:

Holy sheet!!

Here is a basic calculation I found for different Raffle draws. It went through a bunch of chances at one draw, or multiple chances in different draws. Def seems like putting in more draws adds to your chances. Here we can put up to 6 per species all on one tag is wanted, maybe all on one tag isn’t the best plan as I have done on some tags in the past.

The calculations here were all 6 in one drawing or 1 in each drawing. Upped your chance of one win based on their math from 2 to 4%.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'm putting in for deer, elk, pronghorn, fall bear, and the super hunt super lotto. The plan is to burn boot rubber and fill SD cards in my OTC spots until draw results are posted. Then probably more of the same.

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- Dec 12, 2014

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This is the correct answer. When you multiply probabilities together, you're calculating the chances that all events (each drawing is an "event") come true. But in the case of tag drawings, we're not interested in the probability that ALL events come true at the same time, we're mostly interested in what are the chances that at least ONE will come true. So basically, you have to calculate the chances that ALL will NOT come true at the same time, then subtract that from 100%. You do this by multiplying together the probability of failure of each event, just as DCB showed in his calculation.Multiple the odds of not drawing. Subtract from 1 to find the odds of drawing something.

In your example 10% elk, 2% Ibex = 90% no elk, 98% no ibex

.9x.98=.882= 88.2% chance of drawing neither.

1-.882=.118=11.8% chance of drawing something, including the 0.2% chance of drawing both.

I know, clear as mud, right?

- Thread Starter
- #12

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