Seed numbers for Oregon elk.

[haydenbates098]

I applied for Oregon elk in Walla walla for the archery hunt. I currently have 18 points which I know is not quite enough to draw this year. But, my application number is 41k over the seed number they drew for elk. Anybody have any idea if that should be close enough to draw? I do not want to get my hopes up, but I know I should be somewhat close to potentially drawing it in the random with that number. Getting antsy for draw results!!

 

[wapitibob]

not my work but a very good explanation

 

[Oregon]

That entire seed # thingy eludes my weak and feeble mind.
I find it so much easier to figure out after the draw and I see successful or unsuccessful on the App.

 

[haydenbates098]

not my work but a very good explanation



View attachment 888881

Well, for Walla Walla I am about 20,000 under what the number that math equation gave me. So fingers crossed!!!

 

[Rogue Bay]

That entire seed # thingy eludes my weak and feeble mind.
I find it so much easier to figure out after the draw and I see successful or unsuccessful on the App.

I just like holding on to hope for a little longer before the rejections crush my dreams.

 

[colelivaditis]

I want to run the numbers one day and have an accurate statistic

 

[Readypro1]

Oregon Controlled Hunt Draw Prediction App - Viz Wild

In the app below, enter your ODFW controlled hunt application number, number of preference points and first choice hunt. The app uses those numbers to calculate your draw odds. To find your application number, login to your ODFW profile, then select controlled hunts on the left menu. Each hunt...

vizwild.com

 

[bielenbm]

I don’t put much thought into the seed numbers. It just gets your hope up.

 

[PLhunter]

Oregon Controlled Hunt Draw Prediction App - Viz Wild

In the app below, enter your ODFW controlled hunt application number, number of preference points and first choice hunt. The app uses those numbers to calculate your draw odds. To find your application number, login to your ODFW profile, then select controlled hunts on the left menu. Each hunt...

vizwild.com

That is fairly useless when not drawing based on preference points. The 25% pool draw still pulls from seed numbers and I have played with that tool and you can have one over and it says not likely.

 

[PLhunter]

I don’t put much thought into the seed numbers. It just gets your hope up.

It just destroys my hope yearly.

It's not as complicated as people think to estimate your chances. Basically it goes like this. You would expect on random chance ABOUT 1/10 applicants to share the first digit with the seed number because everyone is assigned a number between 0-9. So if the odds for drawing that tag are around 10% and you are over the seed number and share within a digit the first (highest) number you have a solid chance. The odds of sharing the first and second number are around 1/100 or you would expect 1/100 applicants to share the first and second numbers. 00-99 are the options. So if the tag has a 1% draw probability and you are over and you share those first two digits and are above you are likely to draw. And so on as draw odds go and seed number matching goes. So if you use Oregon tags to estimate the draw odds of being in the 25% pool the more complicated math is done for you and you just can estimate based on the logic above. Keep in mind, it is the closest and OVER. Obviously because multiple people can share a first digit and a second digit and so on its not exactly 1/10 or 1/100 but it gives a good estimate of maybe and probably.

 

[PLhunter]

I applied for Oregon elk in Walla walla for the archery hunt. I currently have 18 points which I know is not quite enough to draw this year. But, my application number is 41k over the seed number they drew for elk. Anybody have any idea if that should be close enough to draw? I do not want to get my hopes up, but I know I should be somewhat close to potentially drawing it in the random with that number. Getting antsy for draw results!!

Considering there is a 0.87% projected draw odds by Oregon tags for that hunt you are matching the first two digits and over so you are projected within the top 1% of available applicants. So you have a real chance but also aren't a slam dunk being middle of the pack on the "3rd number". However, with some being closer but under, you being over helps your chances. You should get it.

 

[Baddog]

I applied for Oregon elk in Walla walla for the archery hunt. I currently have 18 points which I know is not quite enough to draw this year. But, my application number is 41k over the seed number they drew for elk. Anybody have any idea if that should be close enough to draw? I do not want to get my hopes up, but I know I should be somewhat close to potentially drawing it in the random with that number. Getting antsy for draw results!!

Well?

 

[Isildur]

Close enough to draw on buck and doe tags, and have points for a doe draw so thats in the bag. Looks like we are eating venison next year lol.

 

[haydenbates098]

I drew it everyone! Pretty pumped. I guess I was close enought!

 

[Smokey Bear]

Nothing for me, but my buddy drew Mill Creek!

 

[haydenbates098]

Nothing for me, but my buddy drew Mill Creek!

The watershed tag? I haven't really ever looked into it but I have heard they have a lot of strange rules like you can only bring one person and no cameras and what not. Any of that true?

 

[Smokey Bear]

The watershed tag? I haven't really ever looked into it but I have heard they have a lot of strange rules like you can only bring one person and no cameras and what not. Any of that true?

Yes. One person can be with you hunting, and three people can help retrieve. And no camping in the watershed.

 

[Baddog]

I drew it everyone! Pretty pumped. I guess I was close enought!

Hell yeah post some pictures in September

 

[bielenbm]

Only draw my 600 tag. I get my hopes up every year for a shot at a goat or ram.

 

[Smokey Bear]

Only draw my 600 tag. I get my hopes up every year for a shot at a goat or ram.

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