Some numbers on Corona Virus

jmez

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Unfortunately science doesn't work that way. It doesn't care what we think is a good idea. Doesn't care what seems to be logical and make sense. A lot of blatantly obvious things get disproven with science.

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DenverCountryBoy

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I thought this was good visual representation.

People who received treatment (green area) have a mortality rate between 0.5-0.7%.

People who are denied treatment because the hospitals are overwhelmed (purple area) have a mortality rate of 4-6%.

Slowing the spread flattens and elongates the curve. The same numbers of people get the virus, but more of them are able to receive treatment. It takes longer, but fewer die from the 'rona.
 

Dustin the wind

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I thought this was good visual representation.

People who received treatment (green area) have a mortality rate between 0.5-0.7%.

People who are denied treatment because the hospitals are overwhelmed (purple area) have a mortality rate of 4-6%.

Slowing the spread flattens and elongates the curve. The same numbers of people get the virus, but more of them are able to receive treatment. It takes longer, but fewer die from the 'rona.
I saw this when I compared death rates on the corona map between cities and rural areas. What that shows and what I already knew...don’t live in cities!
 

Mosster47

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I've stayed on the sideline on this one and just did a bunch of reading and listening to testimonials.

Literally every healthcare professional with first hand knowledge of the situation or real world interaction of the situation all have the same message.

People that have absolutely no idea what they are talking about but are either bored or financially impacted have the same message.

Obviously the first group is infinitely more correct, but it's hilarious to read the second group.
 

Btaylor

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I've stayed on the sideline on this one and just did a bunch of reading and listening to testimonials.

Literally every healthcare professional with first hand knowledge of the situation or real world interaction of the situation all have the same message.

People that have absolutely no idea what they are talking about but are either bored or financially impacted have the same message.

Obviously the first group is infinitely more correct, but it's hilarious to read the second group.
Easily half of the health care workers I know of have either had their hours or compensation cut or have been laid off. Best I can figure is no one person or group has a freakin clue for certain about this whole mess.
 

Mosster47

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Easily half of the health care workers I know of have either had their hours or compensation cut or have been laid off. Best I can figure is no one person or group has a freakin clue for certain about this whole mess.
That's because they aren't directly doing anything related to it.

When you're in a ground war the infantry are getting hammered. The guy at the gym handing out basketballs isn't. Same uniform, same service, nowhere near the same situation. The guy at the gym isn't even necessary.

If you're a physical therapist during this, yeah, you're not going to work much and you have nothing to provide in the effort. That applies to a ton of other medical professionals. This is a really simple concept.
 

Btaylor

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That's because they aren't directly doing anything related to it.

When you're in a ground war the infantry are getting hammered. The guy at the gym handing out basketballs isn't. Same uniform, same service, nowhere near the same situation. The guy at the gym isn't even necessary.

If you're a physical therapist during this, yeah, you're not going to work much and you have nothing to provide in the effort. That applies to a ton of other medical professionals. This is a really simple concept.
Most of the ones I am talking about are nurses. One surgical nurse I know of has had her hours cut way back. Seems to me if she is qualified enough to be a surgical nurse, she probably is capable of helping elsewhere so peers arent required to work 80-100 hours. Seems like a waste of resources to me but I dont work in the field so I may be off base. I get the with your point though about physical therapist, its just not what I am hearing about.
 

Capra

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My wife is a pediatric nurse, Their unit is empty. They have suspended new cancer treatments.................

Sit back and think about that one.

Bottom line is that they are all shooting from the hip. The information out there is only as accurate and the assumptions given to the equation. They really do not know how to handle this so the only thing they could do is tell us to stay at home.
 

Foldem

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First, I’m not trying to diminish what you and many people are personally going through.

Everyone agrees that Italy was a terrible case, they waited too long, Had a totally un-prepared medical system, highly susceptible unhealthy, older population, right? Just over 18,000 people have died from covid there. The laughing stock of the world. 18,000 out of 60+ million people. 0.03% of their population.

Yes, death is terrible. Yes I feel for people that lose loved ones, friends, coworkers (as I have) from covid and for healthcare professionals that are out there busting their asses and seeing People die terrible deaths. But we can’t make all of our country’s policy and response decisions based on emotions and feelings. Numbers matter. We are going to cause a tremendous amount of emotional and psychological trauma for the majority of the country to protect and extreme minority. Yes stalling this is presumably saving lives as treatments get refined and developed.... but it’s increasing the pain and trauma for 99+% of Americans. These people aren’t choosing to quit their jobs or have their incomes go away, the government is mandating it because of fear and emotion and politics and wildly over-estimated inaccurate models. Models that are being revised with downward projections almost daily (with the assumed social distancing through end of May staying CONSTANT)




So let’s say that is correct, so to speak. So now let’s consider a whole shit load of people become infected at one time, because there is no social isolation or any other measures to mitigate the spread. Now where do all those infected people go that require hospitalization? Well, they go to the hospitals, and guess what, the hospitals become inundated with patients, and possibly many of which require intubation and ventilatory support. Now guess what, there are no more ventilators to accommodate the number of people that need them. Okay, now guess what, the hospitals turn into a triage situation where people are determined to be more or less likely to succumb to this disease, the more likely will be put aside and left to die, the healthier people (less likely to die), will be given the ventilatory support (have you heard of a country called Italy?). This is also what is currently, but fortunately not so quickly happening in parts of the more heavily populated areas of the US. Now you must also take into consideration that just because there are people that are lucky enough to get the vents it doesn’t necessarily mean that they will survive. So all that aside, now let’s consider this mass influx of patients into our health care system. Not only will this overwhelm the system, but it also puts the very people that are qualified to deal with the specialized care of these patients, at a much, much higher risk of succumbing to the illness as well. Now who will take care of these people? Oh, but unfortunately it doesn’t end there. Now let’s consider the lack of PPE, and the lack of medications to keep these people alive. Like for instance the sedation and vasoactive medications that are essentially required to maintain these patients on a ventilator. Oh, I forgot about the antibiotics that these people will need to fight the secondary infections that are oh so common with pulmonary viral infections. Oh man, now if that wasn’t enough, let’s now deal with the issue of getting all these medications. Well guess what, the majority of them are produced in where....China. So, after all that, I think that maybe this self isolation might just help in more ways than just slowing down the inevitable. I’m sure I’m missing something, because I’ve had a few drinks before heading into work tomorrow morning to continue this fight, and I’m felling a bit overwhelmed, and personally fu**ed right now.


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So let’s say that is correct, so to speak. So now let’s consider a whole shit load of people become infected at one time, because there is no social isolation or any other measures to mitigate the spread. Now where do all those infected people go that require hospitalization? Well, they go to the hospitals, and guess what, the hospitals become inundated with patients, and possibly many of which require intubation and ventilatory support. Now guess what, there are no more ventilators to accommodate the number of people that need them. Okay, now guess what, the hospitals turn into a triage situation where people are determined to be more or less likely to succumb to this disease, the more likely will be put aside and left to die, the healthier people (less likely to die), will be given the ventilatory support (have you heard of a country called Italy?). This is also what is currently, but fortunately not so quickly happening in parts of the more heavily populated areas of the US. Now you must also take into consideration that just because there are people that are lucky enough to get the vents it doesn’t necessarily mean that they will survive. So all that aside, now let’s consider this mass influx of patients into our health care system. Not only will this overwhelm the system, but it also puts the very people that are qualified to deal with the specialized care of these patients, at a much, much higher risk of succumbing to the illness as well. Now who will take care of these people? Oh, but unfortunately it doesn’t end there. Now let’s consider the lack of PPE, and the lack of medications to keep these people alive. Like for instance the sedation and vasoactive medications that are essentially required to maintain these patients on a ventilator. Oh, I forgot about the antibiotics that these people will need to fight the secondary infections that are oh so common with pulmonary viral infections. Oh man, now if that wasn’t enough, let’s now deal with the issue of getting all these medications. Well guess what, the majority of them are produced in where....China. So, after all that, I think that maybe this self isolation might just help in more ways than just slowing down the inevitable. I’m sure I’m missing something, because I’ve had a few drinks before heading into work tomorrow morning to continue this fight, and I’m felling a bit overwhelmed, and personally fu**ed right now.


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2blade

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I would say the media fear mongering is working


The gun bill awaits Biden

 

Billinsd

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One thing has been proven, Communist China is a very dangerous country, most flu viruses originate there, the government cannot be trusted one tiny bit, and we must distance ourselves from them in everyway possible as soon as possible or else continue to allow them to hurt our great country and people, intentionally and unintentionally!!!
 

NDGuy

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One thing has been proven, Communist China is a very dangerous country, most flu viruses originate there, the government cannot be trusted one tiny bit, and we must distance ourselves from them in everyway possible as soon as possible or else continue to allow them to hurt our great country and people, intentionally and unintentionally!!!
I definitely will be glad to see the world rely less on China going forward. Lots of changes will be coming after this is done, hopefully more positive than negative. One thing I worry about is losing more liberty for "security" like this damn tracking app everyone is promoting.
 

Foldem

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“Economic hardship experienced by families as a result of the global economic downturn could result in hundreds of thousands of additional child deaths in 2020, reversing the last 2 to 3 years of progress in reducing infant mortality within a single year,” the U.N. report said.

The United Nations estimated that between 42 million to 66 million children could fall into extreme poverty as a result of the crisis, adding to the 386 million already in extreme poverty in 2019.

 

Huntindog45

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they are stacking bodies in freezers next to hospitals in many places. there are individual senior centers that have lost more patients in a day than they normally lose in a year. quit comparing this to the flu. that is stupid. seriously.
 
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