The Rokslide Stock Traders Thread

coop22250

Well Known Rokslider
Joined
Dec 19, 2016
Messages
2,888
Location
Eastern Montana

Haven’t been too active, but here’s a great chart to keep an eye on for a turn in markets. NAHB home builders sentiment has timed the bottom of markets within a month in 1991, 2002, 2009, 2020 (obviously 2020 was too fast of a dip to really help here).

Keep an eye on this closely for a turn in the markets, once the housing pullback is complete we should be safer to go long on about all indices.

8A90E9AA-69B8-431B-9A47-BF2EEA94DB28.jpeg 58EAE934-C828-4FE4-97A1-EF5CC3F5CBFF.jpeg 224873C1-DDAE-48FB-94DA-5F64E0E24E2F.jpeg 156C6389-F017-49C6-BA19-145C1AD697B2.jpeg

Good luck fellas, pretty ugly out there. I still think we will hit 325-285 SPY area, 40% avg of bear markets is the 285.

Will be a great change for you younger fellas to make some huge returns over the next 20 years. My plan is scaling into longs starting around SPY 340, adding longs after really bad weeks. Still in cash, waiting for good entry’s. I should be mostly back into longs by the end of the year, early spring I hope if all goes to plan.
 

aftriathlete

Well Known Rokslider
Joined
Jan 18, 2022
Messages
208
Well I'm no expert, but to a guy that just likes to pay attention to this stuff today seems a little bit like something has finally broken. Foreign currency crises playing out across Europe and Asia as the USD spikes to 20-year highs, UST bond yields spiked massively today, S&P 500 just closed below the June low for the first time on panic selling in the closing minutes. That relatively small play on CDEV/PR for me isn't paying off so far, but I'll take that loss if it means the crash that's been getting kicked down the road for the last couple years is finally here. I know what that means for those closer to retirement or already living off their investments though, and I know a lot of people stand to lose their jobs (some say the BLS is going to magically find 10M unreported unemployment applications the day after midterm elections...). But my personal opinion is this whole bubble needs to pop to stop this madness and we can all just get back to investing and not bitcoin billions and meme stonks.
 

WoodDuck

Member
Joined
Sep 24, 2017
Messages
67
Location
Wisconsin
Happy to say that RECAF is helping put meat on the table despite the SP.

Thought I’d bring a little joy to the thread with the overall bleak market outlook. Hope everyone is having a good start to their fall!

In all seriousness, might see some interesting news from RECAF in the next week or two. They are setting up the drilling rig on the 2nd target for this drilling campaign (according to satellite images). Time will tell.
 

Attachments

  • 562A0BDD-385A-445E-9265-C9C249465AEF.jpeg
    562A0BDD-385A-445E-9265-C9C249465AEF.jpeg
    507.1 KB · Views: 111

JakeSCH

Well Known Rokslider
Joined
Jun 14, 2020
Messages
793
Location
San Diego, CA
SLV is having a big day. Picked up 1500 shares last week at about $17.

open interest is 388k calls at $35 and 314k calls at $40 for January...looking to be bullish for the next few months
 

jbosk15808

Junior Member
Joined
Aug 24, 2022
Messages
19
Location
Hawaii
SLV is having a big day. Picked up 1500 shares last week at about $17.

open interest is 388k calls at $35 and 314k calls at $40 for January...looking to be bullish for the next few months
Nice trade. I wasn't expecting this large of a movement this quick and it blew through my covered call expiring this week. Now I'm debating rolling .. .or taking the cash and buying another rifle lol
 

aftriathlete

Well Known Rokslider
Joined
Jan 18, 2022
Messages
208
PR (f/k/a CDEV) was up 10%. That's a pretty good day in my book.


Eddie
I'm pretty much back to where I started. I'm hoping the long-term CDEV/PR folks will share their thoughts, but my concern watching PR's price action this last couple weeks is it's just trading like an equity and not like the commodity. Duh, I know, but it seems like as the big broader equity market drops PR goes along with it, despite oil prices staying pretty stable-ish. Today was a big up day arguably because the broader market was up and risk was back on, and not as much because the price of oil was up some. This has been my experience painfully watching gold stock price action the last two years too, they only act like the commodity when the stock market is doing well, which could be at total odds with the state of the underlying commodity. Gold/oil price can remain flat but the miners/oil stocks get crushed as the market gets crushed. The announcement of a more or less symbolic OPEC price cut on Wednesday could see a good rally in price of oil and hopefully this short-term stock market bounce hasn't already run out of gas by then. Could create a good short-term selling opportunity. I don't know s*** about s*** and I've timed a lot of things wrong, but it seems like there's more downside ahead for stocks before there's more long-term predictable growth, so I'm guessing PR has more downside ahead too before it goes up. I'd put a shrug emoji in here but it doesn't look like there is one. So, *shrug*


EDIT: But just like that, a counter-narrative. Such volatility...
 
Last edited:

Broomd

Well Known Rokslider
Joined
Sep 29, 2014
Messages
3,850
Location
North Idaho
Crazy....
Interesting day today....watching Biden crap his pants (figuratively this time) with OPEC+ announcing an insane 2 million BPD cut in supply. This, after trashing our own industry but off to UAE and KSA to beg and fistbump for more oil.

From Brietbart:
A panel of energy ministers of the OPEC+ alliance of oil-exporting countries on Wednesday agreed to recommend a historically large cut in output, a stinging rebuke to the Biden administration that is likely to mean higher prices at gas pumps in the United States and Europe.

Couldn't happen to worse bunch of creeps here in the U.S. that have tried to all but eliminate our fossil fuel energy independence.

PR = 8.60+ Let's go!!
 
Last edited:

aftriathlete

Well Known Rokslider
Joined
Jan 18, 2022
Messages
208
Might watch it go to the moon from here, but I sold out of PR today. Crude price was up on the OPEC announcement and then mostly flattish after that, so I'm betting that after the big and quick move up this last week in both crude and PR that there will be a temporary drop or a consolidation from people taking profits or just from volatility. I'm great at timing things wrong, but I'll lock in some gains on this *trade* and hopefully will have another opportunity to *invest* in it in the near future. My risk tolerance at the moment is definitely leaning towards safety in cash -- I know that logically oil should go up this next 3 months, but I have no confidence that oil stocks won't go through convulsions on the way. And logic is a problem lately. Gold should also have gone to the moon with inflation the way it is this last two years, but it's still toiling away in the doldrums. I will say the last two and half years of market absurdity has made me way quicker on the trigger to sell and lock in profits after getting burned on some huge swings.
 
Last edited:

badgerboy

Member
Joined
Aug 14, 2015
Messages
51
Location
Wisconsin
Anyone riding the marijuana high today? Pun intended. I was in on cgc but patience wore thin and got out even months ago......

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk
 

ResearchinStuff

Well Known Rokslider
Joined
Jan 26, 2017
Messages
679
Location
PA
dipped my toes in on PR at 8.50 yesterday morning, it's already the most paper-profitable single stock trade I've ever done. Hopefully I'm smart enough to get out before a bottom-out.
 

aftriathlete

Well Known Rokslider
Joined
Jan 18, 2022
Messages
208
Well my timing wasn't perfect, if I had waited another day or two to sell my PR I would have been up another $.80 per share, that would have been nice. Who knows where it goes from here, but it's back down to $8.76 from its high up around $9.40. Of course the price of oil is back down again today. I'm not saying I got it right, it's just the volatility is so high that you are right either way on any given day.
 

Slugz

Well Known Rokslider
Joined
Dec 31, 2020
Messages
418
Serious question here.
I have 30,000$ to invest. Will hold long term.
Meeting with my financial dude tomorrow and I have my own ideas, ill see what he says.
What say you guys ?
 

Doc Holliday

Well Known Rokslider
Classified Approved
Joined
Jun 15, 2016
Messages
1,831
Serious question here.
I have 30,000$ to invest. Will hold long term.
Meeting with my financial dude tomorrow and I have my own ideas, ill see what he says.
What say you guys ?
I would sit tight a little longer. We are probably close to a bottom.....hopefully the elections (flushing out the DEMs) will be a catalyst. We could have an epic rally in December

Without knowing your complete picture (all other existing investments and how they are allocated, real estate holdings and other hard assets, your age, net worth, years to retirement, etc.) , it's hard to make a recommendation. Your financial dude should be able to give you good advice
 
Top