What are your thoughts on the Kung Flu?

[GraveyardNRSE]

I think we'll be on the way down in the next 10 days.

On the way down? How do you figure that? Dr.Fauci clearly stated we could have up to 200K deaths. Am I missing something in your logic?

 

[Dos Perros]

On the way down? How do you figure that? Dr.Fauci clearly stated we could have up to 200K deaths. Am I missing something in your logic?

It could go down before it goes back up. I personally think that is likely to happen. Several times even.

 

[GraveyardNRSE]

It could go down before it goes back up. I personally think that is likely to happen. Several times even.

I live in the midwest and spoke with our ICU intensivist today. He stated "We're going to be up to our gills with covid patients." I respect everyone here for hunting advice and what not but lets leave the virus projections up to the professionals.

 

[jmez]

He said 1.5 to 2.5 million deaths two weeks ago. The numbers didn't support that at the time and they don't support 200,000 now.

Based on the curves from other countries we should hit our peak in 7-10 more days then start dropping. Look at the numbers based on population as well as the total numbers.

Based on population Italy has almost 3x the number of cases we do and 13x the number of deaths. They have had decreased cases now got 14 days in a row. They are on the back side of the curve.

Spain has 3.5x the cases and 13x the deaths as we do. Spain and Italy are extreme outliers on the death rate, no one else is even remotely close.
Spain 216 deaths/ million people
Italy 230 deaths/ million people
US 17 deaths/million people

Those numbers are not changing a lot. I've been watching them daily since this all started. Spain and Italy have been extreme outliers from the start.

I don't believe the stories that The problems New York and New Jersey are having are going to sweep across the country. They are both outliers here and population density has a lot to do with that. New York City has 10x the population of the entire state of South Dakota. NYC has those people in 302 square miles, SD has them in 77,000 square miles. It's idiotic to compare the two, yet that is what they are doing here.

If you look at the US, New York and New Jersey are outliers, and there numbers have both been flattening. Their curves have been outliers from the start. The rest of the country falls all in the same area when adjusted for population, and has since this started. I don't see everyone else just taking off in the middle of this thing.

Plot out curve with Italy and we are following the new cases almost on the same line and have from day one. Plot out death curve with Italy and it is well below and has been since the start.

I'm not listening to government officials. They lie. They are, and have from the start, using made up numbers to project worst case scenarios. I watch the numbers and draw my own conclusions.

We currently have 5,718 deaths. That leaves 194,282 to hit the government's number. Supposed to be there in 60 days. We need to average 3,300 a day to get there. That's 3x the current rate. Don't see it happening.

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[Dos Perros]

I live in the midwest and spoke with our ICU intensivist today. He stated "We're going to be up to our gills with covid patients." I respect everyone here for hunting advice and what not but lets leave the virus projections up to the professionals.

This is based off the Imperial College of London model. But that Midwest ICU intensivist this sounds legit.

 

[Dos Perros]

He said 1.5 to 2.5 million deaths two weeks ago. The numbers didn't support that at the time and they don't support 200,000 now.

Based on the curves from other countries we should hit our peak in 7-10 more days then start dropping. Look at the numbers based on population as well as the total numbers.

Based on population Italy has almost 3x the number of cases we do and 13x the number of deaths. They have had decreased cases now got 14 days in a row. They are on the back side of the curve.

Spain has 3.5x the cases and 13x the deaths as we do. Spain and Italy are extreme outliers on the death rate, no one else is even remotely close.
Spain 216 deaths/ million people
Italy 230 deaths/ million people
US 17 deaths/million people

Those numbers are not changing a lot. I've been watching them daily since this all started. Spain and Italy have been extreme outliers from the start.

I don't believe the stories that The problems New York and New Jersey are having are going to sweep across the country. They are both outliers here and population density has a lot to do with that. New York City has 10x the population of the entire state of South Dakota. NYC has those people in 302 square miles, SD has them in 77,000 square miles. It's idiotic to compare the two, yet that is what they are doing here.

If you look at the US, New York and New Jersey are outliers, and there numbers have both been flattening. Their curves have been outliers from the start. The rest of the country falls all in the same area when adjusted for population, and has since this started. I don't see everyone else just taking off in the middle of this thing.

Plot out curve with Italy and we are following the new cases almost on the same line and have from day one. Plot out death curve with Italy and it is well below and has been since the start.

I'm not listening to government officials. They lie. They are, and have from the start, using made up numbers to project worst case scenarios. I watch the numbers and draw my own conclusions.

We currently have 5,718 deaths. That leaves 194,282 to hit the government's number. Supposed to be there in 60 days. We need to average 3,300 a day to get there. That's 3x the current rate. Don't see it happening.

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Hey man, I really was just asking what your opinion is on an endgame. It seems like the choices are:

1) herd immunity
2) vaccine
3) snuff out the virus from spreading any further through extreme social distancing
4) something I haven’t heard about

Thoughts?

 

[spike camp]

They haven't and aren't locking anything down. Telling the old and susceptible to take precautions. Life going on as usual.

 

[jmez]

My opinion would be to lockdown the old and the high risk. Let others go about their business as usual. If others aren't comfortable with that then they can stay in.

The outbreak ends quicker that way. It should not overwhelm the healthcare system because 80% of the people that get it won't require any care. You protect the vulnerable.

Your herd immunity goes up because you get more exposure through the population. That likely won't factor in for a few years because it has to hit 60% to be effective.

Allows the majority of the economy to keep functioning.

You can't snuff out a novel virus with what we are doing. All we are doing is prolonging the outbreak and increasing the economic magnitude. You want to snuff it out you lock everyone down, and that is zero contact, for three weeks after the last case. You then have all borders completely closed until the outbreak is over world wide. Not feasible.

As long as there are new cases, this will continue to take off repeatedly when the restrictions get lifted. How many times do you lock down?

IMO there is no long range plan in place.

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[THBZN]

My opinion would be to lockdown the old and the high risk. Let others go about their business as usual. If others aren't comfortable with that then they can stay in.

The outbreak ends quicker that way. It should not overwhelm the healthcare system because 80% of the people that get it won't require any care. You protect the vulnerable.

Your herd immunity goes up because you get more exposure through the population. That likely won't factor in for a few years because it has to hit 60% to be effective.

Allows the majority of the economy to keep functioning.

You can't snuff out a novel virus with what we are doing. All we are doing is prolonging the outbreak and increasing the economic magnitude. You want to snuff it out you lock everyone down, and that is zero contact, for three weeks after the last case. You then have all borders completely closed until the outbreak is over world wide. Not feasible.

As long as there are new cases, this will continue to take off repeatedly when the restrictions get lifted. How many times do you lock down?

IMO there is no long range plan in place.

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How does this plan account for and handle asymptomatic carriers, which has been present in every age range, male, female, etc.?

'As many as 25 percent of people infected with the new coronavirus may not show symptoms, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stated.'
The "lockdown the old and high risk" idea begins to collapse in light of these carriers. What happens when they go back to work, then home, then back to work, then swing by and have dinner with their elderly parents, etc. -- new transmissions, new infections, etc. become a reality.

There is no perfectly clear path, but time and time again from every medical professional, strict isolation and testing is advised.

Look at Florida and how backwards their Gov. is thinking -- keep churches open? F* that....turn every mega church into a non-Covid medical site and reserve the hospital care for Covid cases. That kind of half-measure approach is what will keep this thing going.

I mean, look at the genius governor of Georgia, Brian Kemp, who said in a press conference that he only just found out that COVID-19 could be transmitted by people before they show symptoms. Too often, the problem starts at the top....

 

[AKBorn]

He said 1.5 to 2.5 million deaths two weeks ago. The numbers didn't support that at the time and they don't support 200,000 now.

Based on the curves from other countries we should hit our peak in 7-10 more days then start dropping. Look at the numbers based on population as well as the total numbers.

Based on population Italy has almost 3x the number of cases we do and 13x the number of deaths. They have had decreased cases now got 14 days in a row. They are on the back side of the curve.

Spain has 3.5x the cases and 13x the deaths as we do. Spain and Italy are extreme outliers on the death rate, no one else is even remotely close.
Spain 216 deaths/ million people
Italy 230 deaths/ million people
US 17 deaths/million people

Those numbers are not changing a lot. I've been watching them daily since this all started. Spain and Italy have been extreme outliers from the start.

I don't believe the stories that The problems New York and New Jersey are having are going to sweep across the country. They are both outliers here and population density has a lot to do with that. New York City has 10x the population of the entire state of South Dakota. NYC has those people in 302 square miles, SD has them in 77,000 square miles. It's idiotic to compare the two, yet that is what they are doing here.

If you look at the US, New York and New Jersey are outliers, and there numbers have both been flattening. Their curves have been outliers from the start. The rest of the country falls all in the same area when adjusted for population, and has since this started. I don't see everyone else just taking off in the middle of this thing.

Plot out curve with Italy and we are following the new cases almost on the same line and have from day one. Plot out death curve with Italy and it is well below and has been since the start.

I'm not listening to government officials. They lie. They are, and have from the start, using made up numbers to project worst case scenarios. I watch the numbers and draw my own conclusions.

We currently have 5,718 deaths. That leaves 194,282 to hit the government's number. Supposed to be there in 60 days. We need to average 3,300 a day to get there. That's 3x the current rate. Don't see it happening.

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I fear that South Dakota may well be the outlier, and many more congested areas will see numbers and rates closer to what NYC and NJ are experiencing. Here in Maryland we have several counties with over 400 positive cases, we are gaining over 300 positive cases per day as a state, and our test results are still taking 7-9 days to process. we are also way behind other areas on administering tests, for some reason we have struggled to get a decent number of test kits.

I would REALLY, REALLY like for your thoughts above to be accurate, but my fear is that the East Coast congested areas will more closely mimic NY and NJ than we will SD....

In addition, the shelter in place and social distancing isn't to stop the virus - it's to slow it down enough that the ICUs, hospitals, and healthcare professional are not overrun and wiped out. Here in MD we are starting to experience a strain on the healthcare system, and we're just getting started. I can't imagine what NY and NJ are like.

 

[Bubblehide]

Considering the lack of social distancing I see still going on, the lack of appropriate masks, since we know this is airborne from just breathing, we, as in the U.S. are in for one hell of a ride that is just getting started. And to think, we are already up to 1000 deaths a day. Buckle in boys and girls, it's going to be a double E-ticket ride.

 

[MuleyFever]

He said 1.5 to 2.5 million deaths two weeks ago. The numbers didn't support that at the time and they don't support 200,000

We currently have 5,718 deaths. That leaves 194,282 to hit the government's number. Supposed to be there in 60 days. We need to average 3,300 a day to get there. That's 3x the current rate. Don't see it happening.
We currently have 5,718 deaths. That leaves 194,282 to hit the government's number. Supposed to be there in 60 days. We need to average 3,300 a day to get there. That's 3x the current rate. Don't see it happening.

Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk

We had 1000 deaths yesterday. That’s about 18% of the deaths over the last 45 days in one day. We could easily hit 200k if nothing changes. That’s the thing about the estimate though is that it’s based on current conditions. The first estimate you mentioned was based on basically doing nothing. The revised estimate is based on current prevention methods in use. The estimate can change again based on current resources like more ventilators or hospital capacity and social movement.

 

[camping1601]

Considering the lack of social distancing I see still going on, the lack of appropriate masks, since we know this is airborne from just breathing, we, as in the U.S. are in for one hell of a ride that is just getting started. And to think, we are already up to 1000 deaths a day. Buckle in boys and girls, it's going to be a double E-ticket ride.

And what I can't wrap my head around is all the seniors out and about shopping and visiting like we're all on one big vacation. The wife's father (with major health issues) is most pissed off that he can't sit down for lunch right now. I saw a neighbor with major heath issues leaving Lowes yesterday.
I'm stumped right now on this.

 

[Dos Perros]

My opinion would be to lockdown the old and the high risk. Let others go about their business as usual. If others aren't comfortable with that then they can stay in.

The outbreak ends quicker that way. It should not overwhelm the healthcare system because 80% of the people that get it won't require any care. You protect the vulnerable.

Your herd immunity goes up because you get more exposure through the population. That likely won't factor in for a few years because it has to hit 60% to be effective.

Allows the majority of the economy to keep functioning.

You can't snuff out a novel virus with what we are doing. All we are doing is prolonging the outbreak and increasing the economic magnitude. You want to snuff it out you lock everyone down, and that is zero contact, for three weeks after the last case. You then have all borders completely closed until the outbreak is over world wide. Not feasible.

As long as there are new cases, this will continue to take off repeatedly when the restrictions get lifted. How many times do you lock down?

IMO there is no long range plan in place.

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In the absence of a coherent comprehensive plan, what do you think is going to happen?

 

[FLAK]

IT aint looking good, I thought we'd be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel by now.
As I suspected when this all started, we weren't getting the whole story and apparently its worse than they were leading on.
And on top of that, we're headed for a depression.
Going to be a long , long ride to recovery.

 

[Elk97]

Sweden is having second thoughts on it's "do nothing" approach.

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[Bubblehide]

And what I can't wrap my head around is all the seniors out and about shopping and visiting like we're all on one big vacation. The wife's father (with major health issues) is most pissed off that he can't sit down for lunch right now. I saw a neighbor with major heath issues leaving Lowes yesterday.
I'm stumped right now on this.

My parents are in their 80s. They still go out to get what they need despite me offering to get anything they want. My sister offered to send them the few masks they have, they refused, as they feel they have lived their lives, and my sister still has years in infront of her. I think some of it the mentality of being close to death anyway.

 

[ODB]

A, would you expect China to be straight about anything? B, it is a novel virus, everyone knew that. You don't need to be straight about a novel virus. It will wreak havoc wherever it goes.

It started in China, that's about all they have to do with it.

Bullshit. They lied about it being transmissible human-human and the goddam WHO repeated their bullshit. Their first cases were mid-November. You think had they been upfront say, mid December it wouldn’t have made a difference? They were saying no hun man-human transmission until at least Jan 14!

 

[Matt Cashell]

Hey man, I really was just asking what your opinion is on an endgame. It seems like the choices are:

1) herd immunity
2) vaccine
3) snuff out the virus from spreading any further through extreme social distancing
4) something I haven’t heard about

Thoughts?

I’m not a dr. or contagious disease researcher, but I do listen to those that are.

There doesn’t seem to be much debate:

The current guidelines won’t “snuff” out Covid. They will just flatten the curve to mitigate casualties while we get the infrastructure in place to:

1. Develop treatments and equipment to further mitigate casualties.
2. Get to a status of herd immunity WITH the help of effective vaccines.

The good news is, while we all do our part to follow the guidelines and flatten the curve of this first wave, we can poke around Rokslide, talk hunting, and support each other.

 

[jmez]

You don't account for asymptomatic carriers. You can't. They aren't being accounted for now. They are still going to work and walking around in public.

All the shut downs and social distancing are great, what's the end game there? A vaccine is a year away. A vaccine rushed to market, I'll take my chances with Covid. Population immunity you need 60%, that's 198,000,000 people that need to be infected and recover. How long is that going to take.

It's here, it's not going anywhere. Flatten the curve is the buzzword. Flattening the curve lengthens the curve. It doesn't decrease the number of cases, it only strings them out. Do how long can we lovk down? How long can we social distance? As soon as restrictions are lifted it starts right back up again. Do it puts less stress on the healthcare system. Does it? They are still going to deal with the same number of cases. Cases slow down, restrictions are lifted, cases shoot right back up again and you are back to square one.

New York is the hot spot, so far 1% of the population of NYC has been affected, .4% of the population of the state is affected. When will it have run its course long enough for healthcare to catch up? It's already over whelmed at .4%.

2 years of lockdown isn't going to do it.

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