What are your thoughts on the Kung Flu?

[*zap*]

What??????

 

[MtnOyster]

My Math says, unfortunately, we will all be bankrupt before this is over, corona only lasts for a couple of months. a Bankrupt country and severe depression could last for several years. I am willing to take my chances and stay working. If this becomes the new norm to every flu outbreak we have in the future, we don't have a chance. Welcome to Bernie land.

I really think we‘re gonna be alright, some won’t, some will be bankrupt but I think over all we’ll be ok, if we can get things slowed down, especially if treatments prove to be successful surely we’ll be rolling again sooner than expected, i had This conversation with one of my bankers last night, basically what I just told you, he says if they want to survive they will have to work with most that are in good standings, those that aren’t may be in trouble.

 

[*zap*]

You will get some time to pay up.......maybe. Small business will get killed. I know I am going to get decimated.

 

[MtnOyster]

Not sure what business your in but if it was profitable and doing well I’m sure there’s a bank that will work with you.

 

[roosiebull]

Some sobering numbers:

7.7 billion total global population

If infection rates for total population in the next year are kept to 5%, total number of infected is:
7,700,000,000 * .05 = 385,000,000 infected

If you take a low death rate of 1% and apply to the above numbers, you get:
385,000,000 * .01 = 3,850,000 dead in the next year

If you take the current estimated death rate of 4.3% and apply it to the above numbers, you get:
385,000,000 * .043 = 16,555,000 dead in the next year

If you take Italy’s current death rate of over 8% and apply it to the above numbers, you get:
385,000,000 * .08 = 30,800,000 dead in the next year

If global infection rates are allowed to reach 40%, the total number of infected is:
7,700,000,000 * .4 = 3,080,000,000 infected

If you take a low death rate of 1% and apply to the above numbers, you get:
3,080,000,000 * .01 = 30,800,000 dead in the next year

If you take the current estimated death rate of 4.3% and apply it to the above numbers, you get:
3,080,000,000 * .043 = 132,440,000 dead in the next year

If you take Italy’s current death rate of over 8% and apply it to the above numbers, you get:
3,080,000,000 * .08 = 246,400,000 dead in the next year

Several sources are claiming that Global infection rates could hit 70% or higher over the next year, even with moderate social distancing. That works out to:

7,700,000,000 * .7 = 5,390,000,000 infected in the next year

If you take a low death rate of 1% and apply to the above numbers, you get:
5,390,000,000 * .01 = 53,900,00 dead in the next year

If you take the current updated estimated death rate of 4.3% and apply it to the above numbers, you get:
5,390,000,000 * .043 = 231,770,000 dead in the next year

If you take Italy’s current death rate of over 8% and apply it to the above numbers, you get:
5,390,000,000 * .08 = 431,200,000 dead in the next year

If global infection rates double every 5 days(this is what we are currently tracking on), then we reach the 5% infected rate in under 60 days from today:
375,000 3/23
* 2 3/28
* 2 4/2
* 2 4/7
* 2 4/12
* 2 4/17
* 2 4/22
* 2 4/28
* 2 5/3
* 2 5/8
* 2 =‬ 384,000,000 on or about 5/13

Math says that we need to take drastic measures while we still can.

what are your thoughts on china's infection rate and current situation? I understand the steps they took, but now back to business as usual..... shouldn't they being getting another huge infection that doesn't seem to be happening?

how drastic of measures do we take and for how long? we can't live the rest of our lives in fear, and we have to get back to life at some point. number crunching is cool and all, but it doesn't take into account of the masses that are infected who were never tested.... add those numbers into the mix, which is way closer to reality, and there is a whole lot less scary outcome.... nobody wants to do that though, people just want to focus on the doom we are having shoved down our throats.

if this has been going on as long as reports show, it's been in the states longer than the media is leading on.... I bet the actual infection rate is crazy high right now in the US, but the only ones we know about are the severe cases, and those are the only ones we get our numbers from, so obviously the math of this pandemic is horribly skewed.... to the extent we'll never know.

the numbers mean very, very little, due to how the data is collected... test a high percent of the population randomly and i'll start taking the numbers seriously..... quit trying to scare yourself, it does no good!

use some common sense, weather this storm, but the data doesn't tell much of the story, it tells a much scarier tale than reality. i'm not taking away from this as a serious situation, it is, but the numbers we see are liars and paint a much darker picture than reality.

 

[*zap*]

I do not want to work with a bank......I do not want to go into debt.....my bank is always after me to borrow, I tell em no thanks.

 

[Matt Cashell]

What most worries me is that this is unprecedented so no one knows what to expect....the 'new norm' bar gets raised each day.

I guess I’ll jump in.

This isn’t actually new at all. America went through the same sequence with the Spanish Flu 100 years ago.

History repeating itself: Montana has been halted by pandemic before

Today, leaders remind folks that dealing with COVID-19 is challenging us in ways we've never seen. But in truth, almost every aspect of the outbreak, from the way that children

www.google.com

Complete with social distancing recommendations, restaurant closing orders, school closings, and even young people ignoring recommendations because they felt impervious.

1000s died in MT alone, and there weren’t that many people in MT then.

We would do well to learn from our mistakes and do our part to follow guidelines to slow the spread this time around.

 

[lyingflatlander]

I have to admit I’ve changed my position on this issue as it has played out recently. If I could go back 2 weeks ago I would of hit the panic button and raced past all the idiots stockpiling T.P. and would of cleaned out the bacon rack. So you have all the T.P.? Well then, I have all the bacon...

 

[MtnOyster]

I don’t blame you one bit........I hear the same thing and tell the same as you

 

[mcseal2]

I had a veteranarian out today to help with a heifer that prolapsed when calving. He said they are trying to be smart about the virus, but continuing business as usual. They are considered essential business for what they do for beef producers.

He said people are coming to the little grocery store in the small town he works in from over 2 hours drive away. They are coming from big cities like KC all the way out to his area to avoid shortages or fears of the virus. I saw his county had it's first confirmed case today.

 

[jorgensen.travis]

Imagine a Martian anthropologist looking down at us thinking they’re willing to sacrifice human life for paper money and the stock market. Survival, famine, disease, have always been a part of human history, paper money and the stock market are relatively new. Unfortunately we’ve built a system to support an unnatural number of people. The fall of paper money and the stock market could lead to famine. The problem at hand, is one of nature’s solution to the problem of overpopulation.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[aggieland]

It sounds insane to most people but limiting the number of times a person can check into the Emergency Room would save billions. We see the same people over and over again . I would not be surprised if we have at least 100 pts that visit the ER here at least once every 2 weeks throughoutthe year. If these folks had real health issues it would be a different situation but no.

 

[roosiebull]

I do not want to work with a bank......I do not want to go into debt.....my bank is always after me to borrow, I tell em no thanks.

same here for the most part..... today hanging out at home, I realized I was more of a prepper than I realized... I have 6 "emotional support dogs" 2 aussies and 4 schipperkes, which are the coolest dog breed there is.

never a dull moment with 4 schipperkes running around, haha... had to have the stud dog snipped recently because i want to keep all of the puppies and my wife didn't see it my way... I had to sell our last litter of 3.... looking back, we should have kept them for entertainment during this coronapocalypse we're having

 

[roosiebull]

It sounds insane to most people but limiting the number of times a person can check into the Emergency Room would save billions. We see the same people over and over again . I would not be surprised if we have at least 100 pts that visit the ER here at least once every 2 weeks throughoutthe year. If these folks had real health issues it would be a different situation but no.

I have to be in a dire situation to go to the doctor, even our local nurse practitioner.... there are a whole bunch of places i'd rather be.... I hate hospitals, and can't imagine going unless there is a real issue

 

[Trial153]

This isnt the time or the place, but some point it would behoove society to take a real hard look at the "market" and its merits or detriments, and really think about the direction it has pointed society.

 

[Okhotnik]

Some sobering numbers:

7.7 billion total global population

If infection rates for total population in the next year are kept to 5%, total number of infected is:
7,700,000,000 * .05 = 385,000,000 infected

If you take a low death rate of 1% and apply to the above numbers, you get:
385,000,000 * .01 = 3,850,000 dead in the next year

If you take the current estimated death rate of 4.3% and apply it to the above numbers, you get:
385,000,000 * .043 = 16,555,000 dead in the next year

If you take Italy’s current death rate of over 8% and apply it to the above numbers, you get:
385,000,000 * .08 = 30,800,000 dead in the next year

If global infection rates are allowed to reach 40%, the total number of infected is:
7,700,000,000 * .4 = 3,080,000,000 infected

If you take a low death rate of 1% and apply to the above numbers, you get:
3,080,000,000 * .01 = 30,800,000 dead in the next year

If you take the current estimated death rate of 4.3% and apply it to the above numbers, you get:
3,080,000,000 * .043 = 132,440,000 dead in the next year

If you take Italy’s current death rate of over 8% and apply it to the above numbers, you get:
3,080,000,000 * .08 = 246,400,000 dead in the next year

Several sources are claiming that Global infection rates could hit 70% or higher over the next year, even with moderate social distancing. That works out to:

7,700,000,000 * .7 = 5,390,000,000 infected in the next year

If you take a low death rate of 1% and apply to the above numbers, you get:
5,390,000,000 * .01 = 53,900,00 dead in the next year

If you take the current updated estimated death rate of 4.3% and apply it to the above numbers, you get:
5,390,000,000 * .043 = 231,770,000 dead in the next year

If you take Italy’s current death rate of over 8% and apply it to the above numbers, you get:
5,390,000,000 * .08 = 431,200,000 dead in the next year

If global infection rates double every 5 days(this is what we are currently tracking on), then we reach the 5% infected rate in under 60 days from today:
375,000 3/23
* 2 3/28
* 2 4/2
* 2 4/7
* 2 4/12
* 2 4/17
* 2 4/22
* 2 4/28
* 2 5/3
* 2 5/8
* 2 =‬ 384,000,000 on or about 5/13

Math says that we need to take drastic measures while we still can.

Around 600, 000 died ( all ages not just the elderly) from the H1N1 virus in 2009 and and over 60,000,000 Americans contracted the disease. Very little panic while the POTUS played golf and kept our borders open

interesting to compare to our current situation.

 

[MattB]

I have to be in a dire situation to go to the doctor, even our local nurse practitioner.... there are a whole bunch of places i'd rather be.... I hate hospitals, and can't imagine going unless there is a real issue

Before my dad passed, he told me of friends of his who went to the doctor basically monthly to have someone to talk to. With a $5 co-pay, they figured why not?

To me, with healthcare and taxes, everyone should pay enough to make them think twice about overconsumption of the product of the system.

 

[Doug in Alaska]

I have to be in a dire situation to go to the doctor, even our local nurse practitioner.... there are a whole bunch of places i'd rather be.... I hate hospitals, and can't imagine going unless there is a real issue

Same here and I hate going to the dentist's office almost as bad!

 

[roosiebull]

Same here and I hate going to the dentist's office almost as bad!

yeah, I think the last time I went to the dentist was 20ish yrs ago, and just a year and a half ago I kicked a 16 year chewing habit of mostly over a can a day... I probably need to go in, but likely won't until it's more urgent

 

[MattB]

Around 600, 000 died ( all ages not just the elderly) from the H1N1 virus in 2009 and and over 60,000,000 Americans contracted the disease. Very little panic while the POTUS played golf and kept our borders open

interesting to compare to our current situation.

Only ~12,500 Americans died from H1N1, just more than half of an average flu season. Not that interesting a comparison really.

COVID-19 has the potential to be many times worse than that whole. Hopefully that potential is not realized, but time will tell.