What are your thoughts on the Kung Flu?

[MattB]

Better to be over prepared and not need it than to be under prepared and need it. Something I will always go by.

It is rather ironic how many guys on this site who echo the same sentiment except for this particular issue.

 

[brsnow]

It is rather ironic how many guys on this site who the same sentiment except for this particular issue.

it is shocking, probably comes from fear. You can’t shoot a virus. Vulnerability creates illogical behavior.

 

[MattB]

I am not being a wise ass. Just tossing some food for thought to the crowd that thinks this has been here for months. Take a look at the current case timelines for this virus, then try to extrapolate what that would mean if this was actually secondary out break like your implying.

Yup. My wife and I were sick as hell in mid-Dec and her in early January. Neither she nor my daughter caught it from me. There are other bad diseases in the world than COVID-19

 

[tdot]

Sorry to hear that. I hope she recovers quickly. My daughter is a med surgery nurse. She just found out 3 of the anesthesiologists that she works with have tested positive. My mothers neighbor died yesterday of the virus and his wife is quarantined. Thankfully my mom has been holed up for 2 weeks with no contact with the neighbor.

Jesus, I'm sorry to hear all that. I hope you mom and daughter both stay safe.

What region of the country?

 

[MattB]

We had our deadliest day after mass efforts to slow this virus. What if we were just carrying on as if nothing is happening?

According to the 4 guys on this site who think we should just shelter those with underlying health conditions and then let the disease run rampant amongst everyone else, we'd all be back to work in 3 weeks as though nothing had happened.

 

[tdot]

Archery Talk is the hunting forum for you if you want to blow off.
On average, 2,000 New Yorkers die every year from flu. Coronavirus deaths are at 500 something in New York. It is possible that coronavirus (or at least some strain of it) has been around longer than we know. The death rate is a little over 1% but that rate includes ALL the people that died while infected. It does NOT include the probably very large number of untested infections. With that taken into account, the death rate is probably well below 1%. Without the media coverage, coronavirus would easily pass as a bad strain of flu. The 1918 outbreak had a death rate over 2%.

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Not to be graphic. But no one dieing of CV19 is being mistaken for the flu. It is a unique way to pass.

Do you know how the 2% death rate was calculated? Can you guarantee that everyone who had it was considered in that number? Or could there have been twice the number of infections or 10 times the number of infections and they simply didnt know because they didn't/couldn't test the entire population. I've not studied the methodology used in 1918, nor could even guess at how the medicine was being practiced. But I'd hazard a guess that not everyone was tested.

 

[String&stick]

"However, it is obvious this virus is much more dangerous than people like to, or want to, admit."





You can't say that without the true infection rate being known. It may be far less deadly than influenza if the infection rate were know. Could be equal or much worse as well.

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You do realize that we don't have a true influenza infection rate either. . . Due to the fact that 40ish percent of people get a vaccine and may just have mild symptoms, and even those that are sick 3 or 4 days, many aren't going to the doctor for a flu swab. And when a whole family is sick and one person is swabbed and the say well you guys have influenza A!

 

[tdot]

"However, it is obvious this virus is much more dangerous than people like to, or want to, admit."





You can't say that without the true infection rate being known. It may be far less deadly than influenza if the infection rate were know. Could be equal or much worse as well.

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I hope you realize that they also dont know the true infection rate for influenza either.


Looks like @String&stick beat me to it.

 

[MuleyFever]

It is rather ironic how many guys on this site who echo the same sentiment except for this particular issue.

Its also rather ironic how so many that want to discount experts also have their own "expert" opinion.

 

[tdot]

Its also rather ironic how so many that want to discount experts also have their own "expert" opinion.

Is it ironic or asinine that people will listen to a weather forecast, but if an expert in their field makes a forecast about a virus, they simply assume they're wrong?

 

[jorgensen.travis]

Archery Talk is the hunting forum for you if you want to blow off.
On average, 2,000 New Yorkers die every year from flu. Coronavirus deaths are at 500 something in New York. It is possible that coronavirus (or at least some strain of it) has been around longer than we know. The death rate is a little over 1% but that rate includes ALL the people that died while infected. It does NOT include the probably very large number of untested infections. With that taken into account, the death rate is probably well below 1%. Without the media coverage, coronavirus would easily pass as a bad strain of flu. The 1918 outbreak had a death rate over 2%.

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I’ll file this away, and get back to you in two weeks.


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[brsnow]

If the experts wore Sitka they would give them a hummer.

 

[Dos Perros]

This thread is getting exhausting to follow. I can’t possibly point out every lie, error, logical fallacy, misrepresentation, and misunderstanding. They’re in almost every post.

 

[JustJustin]

This thread is getting exhausting to follow. I can’t possibly point out every lie, error, logical fallacy, misrepresentation, and misunderstanding. They’re in almost every post.

Very true. Everybody has their own little twist to what they believe and somebody else takes their implications and suggestions and runs with it and says "Oh no, it's not quite like that. It's most definitely like this." And the original poster is like "I didn't say it IS that way, I said it MIGHT be that way."

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[fmyth]

Jesus, I'm sorry to hear all that. I hope you mom and daughter both stay safe.

What region of the country?

Thank you. My mother lives on a farm 30 miles east of KC. She has been at home since this all started and my 3 siblings that live in the area have been bringing her supplies. I got her a subscription to ButcherBox.com so she gets a monthly box of beef/chicken/pork. My daughter works in Scottsdale, AZ on a heart lung team. Nearly all of her patients are circling the drain so they will get their surgery even if they are infected. Her team has been told that they will get the virus. I am worried for her, my 8 month old grand daughter and my son in law. She has asked me to stay away because she is afraid of passing it to me. I have some lung damage from exposure to mold.

 

[Dos Perros]

Here’s a very frustrating fact to learn: China does not included asymptomatic positives in their counts.

That means the infection rate is much much higher, the death rate much much lower. It’s tough to ascertain, but this is perhaps a shift in reporting from earlier protocols.

Mystery In Wuhan: Recovered Coronavirus Patients Test Negative ... Then Positive

NPR interviewed four residents of Wuhan who contracted the virus, recovered — but then had a retest that turned positive. What does that mean for China's recovery from COVID-19?

www.npr.org

“China also does not include asymptomatic cases in case counts.”

 

[rhunter424]

Deaths today I read were about 350. That puts the rolling average about 180 I believe. I saw a lot of posts about how car crashes and the flu have more average deaths per day. Not anymore.

A few observations. We had our deadliest day after mass efforts to slow this virus. What if we were just carrying on as if nothing is happening? These numbers are from a population that is barely even exposed as a whole. The flu infects every corner of the country by the end of the year.

I am not saying we should have or should not have done things differently. Those decisions are above my pay grade. However, it is obvious this virus is much more dangerous than people like to, or want to, admit.

That chart is misleading. How many days of 110 car crash and 152 flu deaths occurred before COVID-19 even showed up? COVID-19 has a lot of catching up to do.

 

[tdot]

Here’s a very frustrating fact to learn: China does not included asymptomatic positives in their counts.

That means the infection rate is much much higher, the death rate much much lower. It’s tough to ascertain, but this is perhaps a shift in reporting from earlier protocols.

Mystery In Wuhan: Recovered Coronavirus Patients Test Negative ... Then Positive

NPR interviewed four residents of Wuhan who contracted the virus, recovered — but then had a retest that turned positive. What does that mean for China's recovery from COVID-19?

www.npr.org

“China also does not include asymptomatic cases in case counts.”

Or maybe, just maybe, people who study these kind of things had already allowed for that. And it still scared them.

 

[roosiebull]

Here’s a very frustrating fact to learn: China has not included asymptomatic positives in their counts.

That means the infection rate is much much higher, the death rate much much lower.

Mystery In Wuhan: Recovered Coronavirus Patients Test Negative ... Then Positive

NPR interviewed four residents of Wuhan who contracted the virus, recovered — but then had a retest that turned positive. What does that mean for China's recovery from COVID-19?

www.npr.org

“China also does not include asymptomatic cases in case counts.”

that makes sense, and in a way we have been similar so far just by default and how testing has been to this point.

I wonder how many have had it and weren't and won't be tested? I know it's not realistic to find out, but I do think it would add a lot of answers knowing. the nature of this virus is difficult to deal with.... the majority having no, to mild symptoms..... then hammering a small percentage of those infected.... paired with being so contagious, makes this a difficult thing to slow down.

I do think more accurate numbers would make this less scary to most, but it's also undeniable at this point it's a serious virus.

I still wonder what it would look like if the media was focused around the flu for one season, being the majority of the news, serious cases and deaths. if an avg of 35K Americans die from it annually, I bet it would seem pretty bad, especially in peak flu season. that would give us some perspective..... and I wonder what that would look like

 

[Matt Cashell]

That chart is misleading. How many days of 110 car crash and 152 flu deaths occurred before COVID-19 even showed up? COVID-19 has a lot of catching up to do.

It’s not misleading at all. It is comparing the daily rate.

You could make a chart comparing the yearly rate, or any other time period if you want. That wouldn’t change the steep rise in daily Covid-19 deaths, which certainly warrants concern.

I hope everyone follows the guidelines and flattens the curve, so we can come up with the necessary treatment, testing, and isolation protocols to defeat this thing.