What are your thoughts on the Kung Flu?

[HuntHarder]

Went to my local gym this am. It was great to see everyone. Very few wearing masks and the gym was packed. I thought everyone was gonna be dead except me, but looks like everyone made it thru the first "wave."

 

[*zap*]

This is interesting:
my fast research shows...
2017-18 flu deaths were 79,000.
2018-19 flu deaths were 61,000.
2019-20 flu deaths were under 20,000.

What is interesting is your data for prior years shows well more deaths than the CDC's actual numbers. Even more interesting is the 2018-2019 number you show is above the upper bound of the CDC's 95% confidence interval range (26K-53K). More interesting yet is that your 2019-2020 number is below the lower bound of the CDC's 95% CI for the partial current year flu deaths (Oct. 1, 2019 to present, 24K-62K).

2010-11 flu deaths were 37,000
2011-12 flu deaths were 12,000
2012-13 flu deaths were 43,000
2013-14 flu deaths were 38,000
2014-15 flu deaths were 51,000
2016-17 flu deaths were 23,000
2017-18 flu deaths were 61,000
2018-19 flu deaths were 34,157
2019-20 flu deaths were 24,000-62,000

I wonder what the purpose could be for posting apparently false data from prior years to make it look worse than it was as compared to CDC data, posting apparently false data from the current year to make it look less severe than it was (while not calling out comparing partial year data to full year data), and not showing a broader data set which would show the partial year 2019-2020 data to be more in line with the 10 year average? Seems odd...

I posted the #'s that my fast research found for those years.....or....maybe it is my plan to falsify 'data', so I can be part of the cool kids group?

maybe the cdc is not a source that I trust.



The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported this week that the 2017-2018 flu season set record numbers for flu-related deaths, with 80,000 people in the United States dying because of the flu.



In total, the CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died.



At least 14,000 people have died and 250,000 have already been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu season, according to estimates from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

I believe that shows what I posted but you can go ahead and call me a liar again if it floats your boat.

 

[MattB]

This is interesting:
my fast research shows...
2017-18 flu deaths were 79,000.
2018-19 flu deaths were 61,000.
2019-20 flu deaths were under 20,000.



I posted the #'s that my fast research found for those years.....or....maybe it is my plan to falsify 'data', so I can be part of the cool kids group?

maybe the cdc is not a source that I trust.



The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported this week that the 2017-2018 flu season set record numbers for flu-related deaths, with 80,000 people in the United States dying because of the flu.



In total, the CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died.



At least 14,000 people have died and 250,000 have already been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu season, according to estimates from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

I believe that shows what I posted but you can go ahead and call me a liar again if it floats your boat.

So posting "fast research" eliminates responsibility for posting outdated or incorrect data? Good to know.

 

[Elk97]

WA (my state) has been reporting gun shot victims as kung flu deaths. Any questions about how accurate the death totals are?

 

[ewade07]

WA (my state) has been reporting gun shot victims as kung flu deaths. Any questions about how accurate the death totals are?

Is this real life?! WTF...

 

[Elk97]

Is this real life?! WTF...

Yep, sad but true.

Rantz: Gun shot victims counted as Washington coronavirus deaths

Washington State counts gun shot victims as coronavirus related deaths, state public health officials admit. This has serious implications.

mynorthwest.com

 

[MattB]

WA (my state) has been reporting gun shot victims as kung flu deaths. Any questions about how accurate the death totals are?

It would be more accurate to state that on an interim basis WA is counting COVID positive people who were killed by gunfire as COVID deaths. It is an oddity in terms of how data is complied and while this on the face seems troubling (and may speak to deeper issues in the interim), the article suggests there are only 5 such deaths and those will be corrected as they are fully processed.

 

[*zap*]

So posting "fast research" eliminates responsibility for posting outdated or incorrect data? Good to know.

Actually the fast research revealed what I posted, I am not making a profession out of this so I did some fast looking. Data becomes outdated because people just change it. You implied I posted misleading info on purpose and for a specific reason which is completely false but I can understand why you would think I did that since people see the world thru their eyes.

 

[Elk97]

It would be more accurate to state that on an interim basis WA is counting COVID positive people who were killed by gunfire as COVID deaths. It is an oddity in terms of how data is complied and while this on the face seems troubling (and may speak to deeper issues in the interim), the article suggests there are only 5 such deaths and those will be corrected as they are fully processed.

It would be more accurate to state that on an interim basis WA is counting COVID positive people who were killed by gunfire as COVID deaths. It is an oddity in terms of how data is complied and while this on the face seems troubling (and may speak to deeper issues in the interim), the article suggests there are only 5 such deaths and those will be corrected as they are fully processed.

Yep, five gunshot victims but ALL deaths that are positive for Covid are counted as coronavirus deaths. "“Our dashboard numbers do include any death to a person that has tested positive to COVID-9.” So that includes gunshots, auto accidents, etc, etc. But they'll all be corrected, at some point, maybe. Gotta remember that this is the state that just sent hundreds of millions of dollars of unemployment payments to some prince in Nigeria (yes, also true). Excuse my cynicism, I've lived here almost 70 years.

 

[WV Mountaineer]

So posting "fast research" eliminates responsibility for posting outdated or incorrect data? Good to know.

Give it a break man. You have spent this whole thread being a d bag telling everyone where they are wrong. And, in the meantime doiing what appears to be a 180 on your personal stance of the whole thing. Don’t be that guy. You suck at it.

 

[jmez]

A lot of influenza deaths aren't tested. They have signs, die of pneumonia, or respiratory illness and get coded as an influenza death. Now all of those are being coded as covid. Test or not. Would stand to reason that influenza deaths would be lower.

They don't actually count influenza deaths either. It is a statistical model. Influenza is not a reportable disease other than in children.

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[durangobrad]

Some believe the death count is underreported, other believe the opposite.

I think the best way to get a real idea is to look at the deaths in excess of normal.

since March 1st is somewhere between 85,000 and 113,000.

Our current reported death toll in the US is 97k.

Something is killing us more than normal, and outbrakes are still coming. Alabama is getting hit pretty hard right now. And some ICU are overwhelmed and out of beds.

Some rural places with healtier people and low population density did not get hit hard at all.

I'll be interested to see if more shutdowns or second shutdowns come as a result of opening things up and getting back to "normal"

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[Mosster47]

Some believe the death count is underreported, other believe the opposite.

I think the best way to get a real idea is to look at the deaths in excess of normal.

since March 1st is somewhere between 85,000 and 113,000.

Our current reported death toll in the US is 97k.

Something is killing us more than normal, and outbrakes are still coming. Alabama is getting hit pretty hard right now. And some ICU are overwhelmed and out of beds.

Some rural places with healtier people and low population density did not get hit hard at all.

I'll be interested to see if more shutdowns or second shutdowns come as a result of opening things up and getting back to "normal"

Sent from my F1 using Tapatalk

A very close family friend that works in the infectious disease department here told me yesterday they are still having issues with testing accuracy. They have patients they are 100% certain have COVID, but they have to test them multiple times for one of the tests to come back positive.

As of now UAB and HH's projections are the state is gaining about 600 new cases a day. The 4% death rate for those thst test positive is still holding strong. Their RO is 5.7 and they believe roughly 5-6% of the state population has already had it, but antibody testing on that scale is miles away and will probably never become a reality.

This weekend across the country will be a litmus test for contagion in warm weather.

 

[JustJustin]

Some believe the death count is underreported, other believe the opposite.

I think the best way to get a real idea is to look at the deaths in excess of normal.

since March 1st is somewhere between 85,000 and 113,000.

Our current reported death toll in the US is 97k.

Something is killing us more than normal, and outbrakes are still coming. Alabama is getting hit pretty hard right now. And some ICU are overwhelmed and out of beds.

Some rural places with healtier people and low population density did not get hit hard at all.

I'll be interested to see if more shutdowns or second shutdowns come as a result of opening things up and getting back to "normal"

Sent from my F1 using Tapatalk

I'm sorry that your outlook is so bleak. I have confidence you will be be pleasantly surprised by better conditions than you expect.
As far as "excess of normal deaths;" before anybody is swallowing that number as "COVID-19" deaths, don't forget to subtract the double digit percentage of that number from increased suicide and drug overdose deaths. And those deaths aren't COVID-19. They are unhappy individuals without Jesus that who were depressed because of circumstances caused directly and indirectly by the shutdown.

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[durangobrad]

There's no evidence yet that suicide rates are increasing. So your double digit claim is just made up. I'm sure the impact will not be zero, but you and I can only make guesses about that.

Motor vehicle fatalities did seam to drop quite a bit during the "lockdowns" though.

So if we consider auto deaths and suicide deaths per year are quantitatively similar. And one went up 10% and the other down 10% a wash. Something else has still killed an excess 100k Americans, and it isn't killer bees.

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[spike camp]

Burn this thread to the ground.

 

[MattB]

Give it a break man. You have spent this whole thread being a d bag telling everyone where they are wrong. And, in the meantime doiing what appears to be a 180 on your personal stance of the whole thing. Don’t be that guy. You suck at it.

There seems to be folks who are more concerned with furthering a political agenda than furthering the truth, including posting data that was false and misleading. I guess we should just let that sort of thing stand for the sake of harmony?

As for an about face, not really. This is a new disease and we did not have enough data to make informed decisions and our federal, state, and local goverments erred on the side of caution when crafting policy. I thought that was a sensible approach - to flatten the curve and ensure our healthcare systems were not overwhelmed, especially when seeing what occurred in New York.

Now that we have data and have seen how the disease is acting across a greater swath of the US, the path forward is more clear. Locally we have been at very low levels of new cases for 4+ weeks, and I believe we are not opening the economy up quickly enough to mitigate the financial damage that is occurring.

Frankly I would worry more about the folks who formed opinions in the absence of data and have refused to reconsider those opinions based on what we have learned.

 

[WV Mountaineer]

There seems to be folks who are more concerned with furthering a political agenda than furthering the truth, including posting data that was false and misleading. I guess we should just let that sort of thing stand for the sake of harmony?

As for an about face, not really. This is a new disease and we did not have enough data to make informed decisions and our federal, state, and local goverments erred on the side of caution when crafting policy. I thought that was a sensible approach - to flatten the curve and ensure our healthcare systems were not overwhelmed, especially when seeing what occurred in New York.

Now that we have data and have seen how the disease is acting across a greater swath of the US, the path forward is more clear. Locally we have been at very low levels of new cases for 4+ weeks, and I believe we are not opening the economy up quickly enough to mitigate the financial damage that is occurring.

Frankly I would worry more about the folks who formed opinions in the absence of data and have refused to reconsider those opinions based on what we have learned.

Frankly, you formed an opinion early on that this was a death sentence so to speak. All the while, the people you chastise were basing their opinion on data we did have. But, you didn't agree with it and were open and quick to dispute it. Turns out thy were right and you were wrong. So, you have done nothing that Zap didn't do. Yet, accuse him of something that I suspect is your motive. Based solely on your actions and posts on this thread.

There most definitely are a few here spreading misinformation to further their politics. However, Zap most definitely isn't one of those people. He's been very out spoken to his beliefs. He has only posted things he has found as data. Yet, durangogold, ND guy, blue, you and a few others seem bent on doing what you accuse others of. Based on nothing but your politics. And, hide it behind declarations of wanting the truth.

Let's just be honest. This has been one huge shit show based on nothing but politics for the better part of this whole debacle. Its turned into a 6 trillion dollar, debt prescribed Biden campaign add. It would take a complete liar and idiot to deny that.

 

[Foldem]

The data has been there for almost 2 months, people were letting fear, emotions, and Fauci drive the policies.

There seems to be folks who are more concerned with furthering a political agenda than furthering the truth, including posting data that was false and misleading. I guess we should just let that sort of thing stand for the sake of harmony?

As for an about face, not really. This is a new disease and we did not have enough data to make informed decisions and our federal, state, and local goverments erred on the side of caution when crafting policy. I thought that was a sensible approach - to flatten the curve and ensure our healthcare systems were not overwhelmed, especially when seeing what occurred in New York.

Now that we have data and have seen how the disease is acting across a greater swath of the US, the path forward is more clear. Locally we have been at very low levels of new cases for 4+ weeks, and I believe we are not opening the economy up quickly enough to mitigate the financial damage that is occurring.

Frankly I would worry more about the folks who formed opinions in the absence of data and have refused to reconsider those opinions based on what we have learned.

Disagree, data has been out there for 6+ weeks for people that took objective looks and didn’t let fear and hype guide their interpretations, decisions, and policy.

 

[gearguywb]

A couple of things the flu has taught us:

1. You can't trust anyone for factual information. CDC, any news channel, elected officials, etc. They all have an agenda and manipulate numbers to their benefit.
2. People are lemmings. It truly amazes me that the average person is not capable of thought that does not originate in their belly or below their waist.