timberland
WKR
- Joined
- Apr 8, 2014
- Messages
- 525
I know it is impossible to be accurate, but do you have a system that gets you close or you are confident in?
Toprut odds tobme are pretty accurate. Actually they run a draw simulation that is run over thousands of times to get odds if I’m not totally off base. Also taken into acct is group applications which hadn’t been done before until toprut. Basically your overall odds as per their model is about as accurate as u can get in my opinion
If I remember correctly from last year, the odds report that NM releases requires a calculator, pen, paper, and a fair amount of time to figure out on your own. Toprut made it much simpler, but if you don't trust their simulator or don't want to pay then I guess you do it by hand and trust your own arithmetic skills. If I'm wrong and there is an easier way to do it please someone enlighten us all.NM Game and fish puts out an odds report on their website every year.
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The way I see it your odds of getting a tag are the unit with the best chance. Say 2, 4, and 11% odds. Your odds of getting a tag are 11%. Sure you could draw one of the others first, but your best chance at getting a tag is the 11.
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I dont think so, the other choices are only as good as they are. In a sense it's like getting to apply 3 times in the same stateYour odds will be higher than 11% where you get there cracks at it.
Because the draw odds on unit page are first choice. When the calculater is used then that can depending on the other two choices and how u order them. Does that make sense?I was impressed by their process. But is their adding process correct? Seems doubtful to me.
Also, Toprut seems fishy sometimes. The draw odds listed on the unit pages are vastly different than in the calculator. What gives there?
Because the draw odds on unit page are first choice. When the calculater is used then that can depending on the other two choices and how u order them. Does that make sense?
The best way I can do Explain it is your total odds are no better than basically your last choice or your highest probable choice. If your first choice odds are 3% if u didn’t add any other choices then your odds are 3%. If u add two other choices and the last choice is 10% then your first choice goes to say 2% because u stand a chance of drawing your last choice over your first since they look at all three but your total odds are still 10%. I don’t know if that makes sense?I could buy that. Someone explain the additive calculation though. That seems wrong to me based on other probability calculating I’ve read here.
Agree other than your first two choices dont change. They are what they are. Cause they look at them first anyways. Assuming the app was filled out properlyThe best way I can do Explain it is your total odds are no better than basically your last choice or your highest probable choice. If your first choice odds are 3% if u didn’t add any other choices then your odds are 3%. If u add two other choices and the last choice is 10% then your first choice goes to say 2% because u stand a chance of drawing your last choice over your first since they look at all three but your total odds are still 10%. I don’t know if that makes sense?
Ok so yes u right. Had to thinkAgree other than your first two choices dont change. They are what they are. Cause they look at them first anyways. Assuming the app was filled out properly
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