What role does probablity play?

RockinRam96

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Jan 18, 2021
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Do you load your own rounds? In my entire life I have never had a rifle that shot factory ammo less than 2 MOA on its best day. But I've tested and developed loads that I could get under 1 MOA. Does that mean that I can shoot 25 rounds in a row inside that 1" mark? No idea, I've never shot that many in a row. But I've shot several 3-5 shot groupings on different days with these rifles that were 1 MOA or less. When they start to open up, I know it's time to clean my barrel. But that could be 200+ rounds later. And that's with a lead sled. At the range I want to know what "the rifle" can do, not what I can do. Just like setting up my bows......I want them perfect from a tuning and sighting standpoint from the start. That way, any mistakes while shooting are all mine.

I do hand load. However, I have not got to the finer points of matching a round to my rifle. I will say though that my gun shoots my hand loads better than factory ammo.

To your point about shooting from a led sled. I completely understand your logic. And being a detailed oriented person, I would be right there with you. However, my definition of perfection has changed over the years. These days perfection to me is the best I can do with the system I have, whether it be my guns, my bow or my hot rod, the best I can do with it is perfection for me. Perfection with outside influences give a false sense of ability and make for disappointment. I set my boundaries based on my personal performance.


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yycyak

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Apr 1, 2018
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There's lots of people right there with you (2MOA) - They just won't admit it.

I experienced this myself. I'm a great shot (*Cough* When shooting off a bench, no wind, front and rear bag, 40x zoom, handloads, 18lbs rifle, MOA all day.... *COUGH*) But that doesn't translate to the field at all. Most people ignore that part, and state that they are MOA shooters, every day, in every condition, with every single round put downrange. "That's a called-flyer, not a miss" is their mating call.

Once I stepped away from the bench and started doing actual field shooting, I realized I'm hot garbage. But instead of lying to myself, I embraced it. I want to learn to be better, so I can legit be better.

I do hand load. However, I have not got to the finer points of matching a round to my rifle. I will say though that my gun shoots my hand loads better than factory ammo.

To your point about shooting from a led sled. I completely understand your logic. And being a detailed oriented person, I would be right there with you. However, my definition of perfection has changed over the years. These days perfection to me is the best I can do with the system I have, whether it be my guns, my bow or my hot rod, the best I can do with it is perfection for me. Perfection with outside influences give a false sense of ability and make for disappointment. I set my boundaries based on my personal performance.


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Wrench

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Aug 23, 2018
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I encourage all of my buddies to practice shooting off of backpacks and or crossed trekking poles.

My logic is simple, a bench, bipod and especially a lead sled has the potential to influence rifle recoil in a way that can be impossible to reproduce in the field. If I cross my poles and drop the butt on a pack....it's pretty constant. If I shoot from a pack....it's pretty constant.

I like to practice how I'll shoot by shooting how I shoot.

Replicating your rifles recoil is very important.....especially on hunting weight rigs.
 
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Bighorner

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291
Thats where I'm at. I struggle to believe that the majority of people that are bench shooters 90 percent of the time can stroll up to the mountain and actually call wind across a canyon from sheltered trees. I'm not saying there aren't guys that can do, I'm saying theres a lot excusing. I've even heard the best part about hunting with a can is that the elk get confused and will come closer if you miss. I know that thay isn't everyone, but it seems like people put a lot of time into the finer points of shooting only to extend there " I might hit it" range. Again this isn't everyone and I'm not a long range guy I just wanted to hear some opions rather than base everything off a few long range guys a know personally.
 

Wrench

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For me, if I need to bust out the calculator for a wind call, I'm either getting closer, or squaring up with the wind to minimize drift. I don't shoot when drift probability exceeds the vital area size by more than a fuzz.....unless it's a yote. I'll bust those pricks wide open and never feel bad.
 
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Bighorner

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That's the type of thing I really appreciate. To me it has always shown a lot of knowledge and insight to know when to hold off versus bucking the wind. The whole "in balastic coefficient we trust" is scary to me.

That type of response shows practicality.
 
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Bighorner

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That MERC spread sheet really is something and my hat goes off to the people that put it together. I should have spent some time on it earlier, but didnt know something like that was so easily accessible.
 

AZ_Hunter_2000

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Oct 8, 2019
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Like Han Solo said "Never tell me the odds".

There's a lot of merit to knowing the likelihood of making a shot. You do have to be careful about mind*cking yourself. If you do that then your odds of making a shot are near zero.

With that said, the linked article was a very good read.
 

Formidilosus

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14" is a big target if you can get prone, read your environmentals, and take a good shot with a high BC bullet. (...and 6.5 CM is not a particularly stunning example of that for an ELR application...)

Here’s your hit rate in a functionally zero MPH wind, in mountainous or otherwise broken terrain-

.5 MOA rifle. .5 moa extreme spread is literal benchrest precision. Remember that the WEZ is modled for 95% certainty. That is 95% of rounds fired will land in the specified group size at 100 yards. A .5 moa gun, will put 95 rounds out of 100 within .25moa of the point of aim at 100 yards….

100% hit rate at 700 yards, 14” target, superb ammo, .5 moa precision (not happening), and zero functional wind
4CB20C8B-09FD-4724-9B37-61D805FD6A37.jpeg



The same but with a 1 moa rifle (still relatively hard to achieve).

99%.
2E348A1C-EA75-4F7A-919B-8DB7BF568FCD.jpeg




1.5 moa precision (much, much more realistic mechanical precision).

94%
9BFD3DC6-C806-4EEE-BBAC-DE478CC7437C.jpeg





So from what might as well be unattainable field precision of .5 moa to exceptional precision of “only” 1 moa you gain a whopping .7%. Not even 1%. You can’t even notice the difference in the field until somewhere between 5 and 10% difference. But let’s go to the crummy precision of 1.5 moa- 94.8%. Almost 95%. This is under absolute perfect conditions. I’ve been hunting in the Rocky Mountains nearly straight since mid October. I have seen maybe 4-5 days total that would fit those conditions.
 
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Formidilosus

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So the same with normal “zero wind conditions”, or from a near world class wind caller in moderate mountainous conditions. Having seen hundreds of shooters, hunters, Mil snipers, and competitors, only a handful can consistently call wind in broken terrain at 600+ yards in moderate conditions to within 2 mph….


.5 moa rifle-

70%
C94BD381-F1CB-4CDC-B568-9ADE4C2BC269.jpeg




1moa rifle-

68%
E1A1CB3C-E5CC-4A04-B4DD-3BC08D10C20C.jpeg





1.5moa rifle-

65%
921F4C05-DFF3-4B6D-AEF2-FCE73EA0A51B.jpeg




So in what I would consider real world “no wind” conditions, from true benchrest precision (.5moa) to legit world class field shooting (1moa) there is no real measurable difference; all the way to what nearly everyone would consider garbage (1.5moa), there is a 5% difference in hit rate. That can not even be detected in the field on animals.

BTW, the difference in hit rate between 70% and 65% is exactly .2mph wind call. That is the ability to call the wind to within 1.8 mph versus 2 mph….
 

Formidilosus

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Here’s the same setup from a wind caller in moderate to to difficult conditions who is practiced shooter or recently graduated sniper school student (maybe): that is the ability in mountainous/broken terrain to call the wind to within 4 mph across the whole trajectory

.5 moa rifle-


40%
A3E0743A-EAD8-401D-B019-03ABFD83ACBE.jpeg



1 moa rifle-

39%
B0CAB14B-7ED2-4B95-AA2B-2A61D2AEA2DE.jpeg



1.5 moa rifle-

37%
83E32DDB-61D9-4E98-9A28-459F76F701D7.jpeg





Stop worrying about incremental group size reductions. It is not helping you hit. At all. You are wasting your time at medium to long range ballistically masturbating about “half moa all day long” nonsense.
 

SomeJackassOnAForum

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Sep 15, 2020
Messages
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Here’s the same setup from a wind caller in moderate to to difficult conditions who is practiced shooter or recently graduated sniper school student (maybe): that is the ability in mountainous/broken terrain to call the wind to within 4 mph across the whole trajectory

.5 moa rifle-


40%
View attachment 349548



1 moa rifle-

39%
View attachment 349549



1.5 moa rifle-

37%
View attachment 349550





Stop worrying about incremental group size reductions. It is not helping you hit. At all. You are wasting your time at medium to long range ballistically masturbating about “half moa all day long” nonsense.


I don't disagree with you about how little of a factor mechanical accuracy differences are compared to other factors (unsure why you quoted me for this), but what cartridge are you getting what looks like 50" of windage spread for 4mph diff in wind?
 

Formidilosus

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Oct 22, 2014
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I don't disagree with you about how little of a factor mechanical accuracy differences are compared to other factors (unsure why you quoted me for this), but what cartridge are you getting what looks like 50" of windage spread for 4mph diff in wind?

I just put yours because you gave rifle info. That’s your rifle.

That’s due to the WEZ (weapon employment zone) calculator. It takes all the variables you input and randomly assigns them for 1,000 simulated shots. With your rifle particulars and the variables I put in, it gives you a 1st round hit rate.
 

SomeJackassOnAForum

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I just put yours because you gave rifle info. That’s your rifle.

That’s due to the WEZ (weapon employment zone) calculator. It takes all the variables you input and randomly assigns them for 1,000 simulated shots. With your rifle particulars and the variables I put in, it gives you a 1st round hit rate.

What windspeed is this?

The area covered is greater than the entire windhold for 10 MPH + 10" for 1.5 MOA.
 

mxgsfmdpx

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Oct 22, 2019
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Location
Central Arizona
Here’s the same setup from a wind caller in moderate to to difficult conditions who is practiced shooter or recently graduated sniper school student (maybe): that is the ability in mountainous/broken terrain to call the wind to within 4 mph across the whole trajectory

.5 moa rifle-


40%
View attachment 349548



1 moa rifle-

39%
View attachment 349549



1.5 moa rifle-

37%
View attachment 349550





Stop worrying about incremental group size reductions. It is not helping you hit. At all. You are wasting your time at medium to long range ballistically masturbating about “half moa all day long” nonsense.
“Sniper school” lol. “Military” students are absolutely some of the worst “shooters” I’ve ever had the experience of teaching (re-teaching to try to eliminate horrible horrible habits).
 

Formidilosus

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“Sniper school” lol. “Military” students are absolutely some of the worst “shooters” I’ve ever had the experience of teaching (re-teaching to try to eliminate horrible horrible habits).

Yes. What’s your point?
 
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