A few weeks or months ago I couldn’t sleep and decided to breakdown some draw odds for group applications in which everyone applies separately. Our strategy for applications was to pull at least one tag and who ever was unsuccessful would still come on the trip as a packer for a share of the meat.
A few of the scenarios I ran are as follows: a group of 4, everyone in the group has the same number of points, and everyone applies as an individual.
A snippet of my python code is shown below and I verified the individual draw odds by matching them with GoHunt. I am not the strongest at probability, so if there are errors please let me know. I only ran the scenario of drawing one tag, but it’d be a simple expansion to 2 tags, 3 tags, etc.
For my group of friends this added some level of certainty for our tag application strategy even though point creep could mess up this analysis. I have also found it useful for looking at what the drawn-out odds for 2021 were. This analysis ended up dictating our strategy for unit selection for cow elk in central WY (still trying to figure out to scout in an absence of trees) and helped a couple of my buddies draw tags for their first mule deer hunt.
Anyways, I figured I’d share with fellow Rokslider’s to take a look at.
A few of the scenarios I ran are as follows: a group of 4, everyone in the group has the same number of points, and everyone applies as an individual.
- WY Elk Gen in 2020 and 2021 (the 2.5 points could only happen in a group, but is shown more as an illustration)
- WY Deer Region H in 2020 and 2021
A snippet of my python code is shown below and I verified the individual draw odds by matching them with GoHunt. I am not the strongest at probability, so if there are errors please let me know. I only ran the scenario of drawing one tag, but it’d be a simple expansion to 2 tags, 3 tags, etc.
For my group of friends this added some level of certainty for our tag application strategy even though point creep could mess up this analysis. I have also found it useful for looking at what the drawn-out odds for 2021 were. This analysis ended up dictating our strategy for unit selection for cow elk in central WY (still trying to figure out to scout in an absence of trees) and helped a couple of my buddies draw tags for their first mule deer hunt.
Anyways, I figured I’d share with fellow Rokslider’s to take a look at.
