WY Draw Odds Calculations Applying as Individuals

gilby

Member
Joined
Feb 27, 2018
Messages
79
Location
Minnesota
A few weeks or months ago I couldn’t sleep and decided to breakdown some draw odds for group applications in which everyone applies separately. Our strategy for applications was to pull at least one tag and who ever was unsuccessful would still come on the trip as a packer for a share of the meat.



A few of the scenarios I ran are as follows: a group of 4, everyone in the group has the same number of points, and everyone applies as an individual.

  • WY Elk Gen in 2020 and 2021 (the 2.5 points could only happen in a group, but is shown more as an illustration)
  • WY Deer Region H in 2020 and 2021
The resulting draw odds for region H tag and Elk Gen tag are shown in the table below.


WY_group_draw_odds.png
A snippet of my python code is shown below and I verified the individual draw odds by matching them with GoHunt. I am not the strongest at probability, so if there are errors please let me know. I only ran the scenario of drawing one tag, but it’d be a simple expansion to 2 tags, 3 tags, etc.

WY_group_draw_odds_code.png


For my group of friends this added some level of certainty for our tag application strategy even though point creep could mess up this analysis. I have also found it useful for looking at what the drawn-out odds for 2021 were. This analysis ended up dictating our strategy for unit selection for cow elk in central WY (still trying to figure out to scout in an absence of trees) and helped a couple of my buddies draw tags for their first mule deer hunt.



Anyways, I figured I’d share with fellow Rokslider’s to take a look at.
 

TexDoc

Senior Member
Joined
Jun 8, 2021
Messages
160
Location
Republic of Texas
A few weeks or months ago I couldn’t sleep and decided to breakdown some draw odds for group applications in which everyone applies separately. Our strategy for applications was to pull at least one tag and who ever was unsuccessful would still come on the trip as a packer for a share of the meat.



A few of the scenarios I ran are as follows: a group of 4, everyone in the group has the same number of points, and everyone applies as an individual.

  • WY Elk Gen in 2020 and 2021 (the 2.5 points could only happen in a group, but is shown more as an illustration)
  • WY Deer Region H in 2020 and 2021
The resulting draw odds for region H tag and Elk Gen tag are shown in the table below.


View attachment 299984
A snippet of my python code is shown below and I verified the individual draw odds by matching them with GoHunt. I am not the strongest at probability, so if there are errors please let me know. I only ran the scenario of drawing one tag, but it’d be a simple expansion to 2 tags, 3 tags, etc.

View attachment 299985


For my group of friends this added some level of certainty for our tag application strategy even though point creep could mess up this analysis. I have also found it useful for looking at what the drawn-out odds for 2021 were. This analysis ended up dictating our strategy for unit selection for cow elk in central WY (still trying to figure out to scout in an absence of trees) and helped a couple of my buddies draw tags for their first mule deer hunt.



Anyways, I figured I’d share with fellow Rokslider’s to take a look at.
Man this is pretty cool. Surprised it only has one reply/like. A few of us are currently sitting at 7 points each (across the board for deer, elk, and speed goat) and we are considering cashing in our chips next year. This is interesting food for thought. Have you expanded this (I'm not a coder at all) to allow for entering actual points and comparing group vs individual draw odds in various units and for different species? I imagine that would require a lot more sleepless nights on your part, but Im an intrigued for sure. Thanks for doing the work on this.
 

String&stick

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 16, 2018
Messages
718
Given about 8 years of history I have come up with the following equation for Wyoming draw odds and it has worked for me with 100% accuracy!

X = 0% chance of drawing!

Just plug in your number of points for X!
 
Last edited:

TexDoc

Senior Member
Joined
Jun 8, 2021
Messages
160
Location
Republic of Texas
Given about 8 years of history I have come up with the following equation for Wyoming draw odds and it has worked for me with 100% accuracy!

X = 0% chance of drawing!

Just plug in your number of points for X!
You nailed it...in fact I think you can use that formula in a few more states with or without bonus points.
 
Top