WYOMING 2022 DRAW ODDS KIND OF SUCKED!

[Mojave]

Things changed a bit. I am not going to spend hours doing the trend math, but I am kind of shocked by what I am seeing. Point creep was 1-2 points for most quality antelope tags. Even the specials mostly went up a point.

I had 9 points for antelope and drew a unit that was 100% with 10.

The tag reductions were really hard for antelope.

Elk was worse on demand. Even residents had increased demand.

 

[tdhanses]

You realize they vastly reduced tags due to the decimation of the herds last year right?

 

[MattB]

My sense is a lot of point-only guys cashed in to get out of the game due to 90:10. I don't have a sense of what tdhanses mentioned, but at least part of this was predictable.

 

[displacedtexan]

We drew our 1st pick with 0 points.

 

[tdhanses]

My sense is a lot of point-only guys cashed in to get out of the game due to 90:10. I don't have a sense of what tdhanses mentioned, but at least part of this was predictable.

Wyoming license proposals, big cuts to Antelope.

WGFD issued 2022 season license allocation proposals, with another round of big cuts to Antelope licenses. https://wgfd.wyo.gov/Get-Involved/Public-Meetings

www.rokslide.com

 

[JFK]

Guys throwing points at some pretty marginal units. The unit I hunted last year for antelope went from a low point unit to a mid point unit and I think some guys will be disappointed when they get there. Not a knock on the area….it’s just that it’s a tougher, mostly private unit and if you don’t have permissions or grind on the small patches of public you are SOL. Burning many years of points on a unit like that makes no sense to me.

 

[Sccritterkiller]

Burning many years of points on a unit like that makes no sense to me.

Maybe maybe not..if they go to 90/10 with 50% of the tags going to outfitters drawing any tag may be better than no tag.

 

[Kurts86]

Most Wyoming units have been creeping at around +0.5-1.0 PP per year then you cut a bunch of antelope tags and with 90/10 on the horizon it’s not a surprise. Also remember Wyoming has a bunch of point holders that just buy PP’s but never apply until years later because they were one of first to just sell points without a $600 loan and refund to get a point.

My group drew because we put in a full 2 PP’s ahead of 2021 odds knowing all these variables. I’ve been burned by Wyoming “should have drawn tags” more than any other state and know better after a decade in the game.

Once I’ve narrowed down units I plot the points to draw over the last 5 years for both regular and special draws to see the long term trends and extrapolate what it’s going to take next year. Anyone who is only looking at last years data is lying to themselves about their odds.

 

[idelkslayer]

Most Wyoming units have been creeping at around +0.5-1.0 PP per year then you cut a bunch of antelope tags and with 90/10 on the horizon it’s not a surprise. Also remember Wyoming has a bunch of point holders that just buy PP’s but never apply until years later because they were one of first to just sell points without a $600 loan and refund to get a point.

My group drew because we put in a full 2 PP’s ahead of 2021 odds knowing all these variables. I’ve been burned by Wyoming “should have drawn tags” more than any other state and know better after a decade in the game.

Once I’ve narrowed down units I plot the points to draw over the last 5 years for both regular and special draws to see the long term trends and extrapolate what it’s going to take next year. Anyone who is only looking at last years data is lying to themselves about their odds.

I figured the same thing. We applied with 2 points more than was required in past years. Unfortunately, the unit we applied for jumped 3.5 points. It went from 4 applicants at our point level last year to 192 applicants at our point level this year. Another unit we considered (and would have preferred) but chose not to apply in due to historically high point totals, actually dropped several points and we would have drawn in that unit if we had applied there.

 

[wapitibob]

My sense is a lot of point-only guys cashed in to get out of the game due to 90:10. I don't have a sense of what tdhanses mentioned, but at least part of this was predictable.

There are roughly 60,000 ea for each species that are not applying and only buying points. Those people aren't shown on the demand reports.

 

[go_deep]

Over 15,000 Antelope tags have been cut in just the last 2 years alone.

Is demand up, sure, but if we can get herd health back and build the population draw odds will increase significantly. Let the does live!

 

[Rich M]

I was wondering how it would go. Seems to be as expected w more guys in the game.

 

[Mojave]

I had 9 points took 11 at 100 percent 10 was only one guy andvthere was 11 at 9 points and 60 percent got tags