Wyoming odds help. Please?

[robtattoo]

I've tried my best to understand it, really I have! But i'm a dog groomer, not a frikkin' mathematician.
I'm sitting on 2 points right now. Is it worth my while applying for a buck antelope tag in unit 88?
I've hunted the same unit, lots, for elk & type 6 does & i'd really like to stick with ground I know.

Bottom line, what're my chances as a first choice pick?

 

[Fatcamp]

How many points did it take for 100% in the Regular draw?

How many tags in the random draw versus applicants?

Those are the numbers we need.

 

[Laramie]

Last year in the regular drawing it took over 4 points to guarantee the tag. In the special drawing, you had a 50% chance with 2 points but needed over 2 to guarantee the tag. In the random drawing, you had a 4.6% chance of drawing. There is no guarantee how many will apply in 2021 but from my chair I don't think you have much chance of drawing unless you apply in the higher priced special drawing. Even then, you will probably only have around a 25% chance if recent point creep trends continue.

 

[robtattoo]

I have literally no idea. I honestly can't make head nor tail of WFG's reporting.

 

[robtattoo]

Last year in the regular drawing it took over 4 points to guarantee the tag. In the special drawing, you had a 50% chance with 2 points but needed over 2 to guarantee the tag. In the random drawing, you had a 4.6% chance of drawing. There is no guarantee how many will apply in 2021 but from my chair I don't think you have much chance of drawing unless you apply in the higher priced special drawing. Even then, you will probably only have around a 25% chance if recent point creep trends continue.

Well nuts. I guess i'll throw in for another point this year then & try my hat at a couple more cheap does.
Thanks for the help!

 

[Bull_n_heat]

Hopefully this will help... The total quota for this pool of tags (Non-resident, regular draw, preference pool) was 21 tags. As you trace down the quota column, every time you see a tag go away, it means that someone with that number of preference points drew the tag. So in this case, 2 people with <9 points drew (a party no doubt), nobody with 7 or 8 points even applied because the quota remained unchanged, and then a single person with 6 points applied and got a tag. you follow this on down until you run out of the quota.

Where it gets interesting is that with 4 points they had more applicants that tags, so only 2 of the 5 walked away winners.

Anyway, that's how you read the draws. Bear in mind that in the NR pool, 75% of the tags go to preference points and 25% goes to a random draw, so you have a chance every year at 7 tags (21 PP tags [75%], 7 random [25%]). You can't draw if you don't apply, so you might as well throw in!

Hunt Type	Quota	Preference Points	Drawing Odds
1	21	< 9	100.00%
1	19	8	100.00%
1	19	< 8	100.00%
1	19	7	100.00%
1	19	< 7	100.00%
1	19	6	100.00%
1	18	< 6	100.00%
1	11	5	100.00%
1	2	< 5	100.00%
1	2	4	40.00%
1	0	< 4	0.00%

 

[marshland_max]

^^^^^^^^^^^ This exactly - PUT IN

Well I can tell you this. My hunting buddy and myself ended up burning 6 pts in the Special as we just couldn't seem to make progress on getting the unit we wanted and we constantly put in for a PP and kept waiting another year.

This year we just threw in the towel and burned the points. We both got decent goats considering the drought year. We where both happy, but we wont ever wait that long again. Pick a unit you can draw in 2-3 pts and go hunt. That's what we decided for ourselves anyway.

 

[Steve O]

So, LAST year with two points, you had NO chance to draw a regular tag in the preference point part of the draw and 100% to draw in the special tag preference portion of the draw in Unit 88. In the random portion of the draw for 88 regular was 4.7% and special was 15%.

So you MIGHT have a chance this year of drawing a special tag or you MIGHT have a SLIM chance at drawing in the random portion of the draw. Your chances are 3 times better drawing a random special tag than a random regular tag but both are dismal. I wouldn’t count on that.

 

[eaglemountainman]

I wouldn't count on drawing 88 with 2 points. Last year, only 50% drew on 2 points, and that was for the special. In the regular full price draw, only 40% drew with 4 points.

EDIT: If you're absolutely stuck on unit 88 or nothing, by all means, you should apply. As others have suggested, nothing ventured, nothing gained. Good luck.

 

[Fatcamp]

So, LAST year with two points, you had NO chance to draw a regular tag in the preference point part of the draw and 100% to draw in the special tag preference portion of the draw in Unit 88. In the random portion of the draw for 88 regular was 4.7% and special was 15%.

So you MIGHT have a chance this year of drawing a special tag or you MIGHT have a SLIM chance at drawing in the random portion of the draw. Your chances are 3 times better drawing a random special tag than a random regular tag but both are dismal. I wouldn’t count on that.

100% chance of not applying if you don't apply.

My application strategy can be summed up simply, "There's a chance!"

 

[eaglemountainman]

So, LAST year with two points, you had NO chance to draw a regular tag in the preference point part of the draw and 100% to draw in the special tag preference portion of the draw in Unit 88. In the random portion of the draw for 88 regular was 4.7% and special was 15%.

So you MIGHT have a chance this year of drawing a special tag or you MIGHT have a SLIM chance at drawing in the random portion of the draw. Your chances are 3 times better drawing a random special tag than a random regular tag but both are dismal. I wouldn’t count on that.

Draw odds for the Special with 2 points in unit 88 was only 50%, not 100%.

 

[Steve O]

Well, I was trusting this...

 

[MuleyFever]

Are you in the random if you apply in the regular or the special?

 

[Rat]

If you do not draw in the PP drawing (which you probably won't) you then get entered into the random draw which would give you approximately 4% chance of drawing a license, approximately 15% chance if you put in for the special draw.

 

[wapitibob]

Well, I was trusting this...

View attachment 256256

no no no

 

[Rat]

Well, I was trusting this...

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Point creep has been 0.5 to 1 point a year for most of the areas that I watch. That may or may not be the case in 88, there is a chance of drawing in the special. The odds that I got off of the wyoming website show 2020 Special PP draw at 50%.

 

[Muley Buck]

Are you in the random if you apply in the regular or the special?

Both, there is 25% in the regular and the special that are allocated to the random. So there is always a chance.

 

[Laramie]

Well, I was trusting this...

View attachment 256256

Wyoming odds are easy to look up. I wouldn't rely on any secondary sight personally.

 

[robtattoo]

Well....... bollocks to it. I threw my hat in the ring tonight, along with 2 shots at reduced type sixes again & a reduced cow elk.






You just watch me draw one of each with no season overlap.....

If i get nothing, i'm going to the rendezvous instead.

 

[wapitibob]

Surely you didn’t apply for antelope in January....