Wyoming point creep NR special Antelope...

Tod osier

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I'm picking through the antelope units with a buddy, we have 5.5 points and will go special and due to some conflicting goals for the hunt (want to be in a unit with good sage grouse to run the dog, would like a chance at doe tags in the unit, etc...), I'm not hitting on exactly what I want without pushing my points.

I've studied points to draw and creep and am wondering is there is anyone out there that has a learned perspective on creep this year in that point range. Last year creep in the 3-5 point special units was not much at all. Thoughts? If anyone with a good insight based on their understanding of the data want as to start a private conversation, I'd be appreciative.
 

NEWHunter

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I’ve got some similar goals for this fall but with a 6.67 point average. Personally, I’m kind of giving up on the doe tags. With the tags cuts and the way apps are rising, doe tags are becoming a real long shot. I’d look at two different units if I were you for bucks and does. A good unit and you should be able to fill doe tags in a morning with a bit of luck.
 

406life

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I expect creep to be a major issue this year, impacting your point pool as well. I'm not sure how much the special is going to help either. I would look at neighboring units for doe tags as well.
Also, fwiw, while I understand the appeal of doubling up on species in a hunt, I would suggest focusing on the antelope unit you want and then finding sage grouse afterwards.
 

Rich M

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Lotsa talk about how the point system is gonna get blown outta the water this year.

All the doom & gloom talk we get adds stress to your life. If you need to do a combo hunt, it limits your options - the seasons don't overlap very well in some areas.

Apply for what you want and hope to draw.
That's what I did. If don't draw, will apply just the same next year and the year after until we get pulled.

Sucks that 5.5 in the special isn't a sure thing. The whole points and limited playing field makes things tougher for sure.
 

Mojave

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There are a ton of people talking about Wyoming antelope this year. I looked a couple of days ago and I have 8 points. I applied for the unit I was going to apply for and damned the numbers. According to gohunt and the state, 8 points should be 90%-100% draw for my unit.

I didn't even apply for the special.

Here is my theory.

1. Based on how many people applied throughout the west in other states, and how many additional dudes applied for elk in Wyoming we know that demand has gone up 30-50 percent depending on the species and state. So there are more people in the draw invalidating the projected demand published by "experts".

2. In most units that require 7-11 points in Wyoming the special draw may or may not have better odds. In many units it is a wash.

3. I am 8 years into this game, and I lived overseas for most of it. I have been waiting a long time for this tag.

4. With the winter kill this year, and the tag deductions the state is projecting dropping tag allocations farther.

My 2021 thoughts are to apply for the tag you want, and not just a tag. It's a bad year, if you get lucky great.
 

wapitibob

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Lots of things contribute to creep but people seem to forget about the number of applicants that only buy points. These guys don't show up on the odds proports and the info isn't readily available. I will tell you that at every point level for Antelope, less than half actually apply. Less than 1/2 apply for an Elk hunt as well.
 
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Tod osier

Tod osier

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Lots of things contribute to creep but people seem to forget about the number of applicants that only buy points. These guys don't show up on the odds proports and the info isn't readily available. I will tell you that at every point level for Antelope, less than half actually apply. Less than 1/2 apply for an Elk hunt as well.

I always pay attention to what you say in regard to the draws in Wyoming, in this case I'm not sure what you are saying means. Are you saying that there is creep even if it isn't realized in terms of people applying, but the pool out points out there is growing regardless? I've put a lot of time into looking at the data for the past several years and last years data was more wacky with more unexplained changes in points required than past years, but for the range of units I'm looking at realized creep was minimal (compared to the higher point units). This year with the changes planned there will be a lot of surprises I think, that is why I'm having a tough time.
 
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Tod osier

Tod osier

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There are a ton of people talking about Wyoming antelope this year. I looked a couple of days ago and I have 8 points. I applied for the unit I was going to apply for and damned the numbers. According to gohunt and the state, 8 points should be 90%-100% draw for my unit.

I didn't even apply for the special.

Here is my theory.

1. Based on how many people applied throughout the west in other states, and how many additional dudes applied for elk in Wyoming we know that demand has gone up 30-50 percent depending on the species and state. So there are more people in the draw invalidating the projected demand published by "experts".

2. In most units that require 7-11 points in Wyoming the special draw may or may not have better odds. In many units it is a wash.

3. I am 8 years into this game, and I lived overseas for most of it. I have been waiting a long time for this tag.

4. With the winter kill this year, and the tag deductions the state is projecting dropping tag allocations farther.

My 2021 thoughts are to apply for the tag you want, and not just a tag. It's a bad year, if you get lucky great.

Yes, to have a guarantee this year feels like I need to be much more conservative than past years. I'm likely to go with my heart and pick the unit I like and hope.
 
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Tod osier

Tod osier

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I expect creep to be a major issue this year, impacting your point pool as well. I'm not sure how much the special is going to help either. I would look at neighboring units for doe tags as well.
Also, fwiw, while I understand the appeal of doubling up on species in a hunt, I would suggest focusing on the antelope unit you want and then finding sage grouse afterwards.

You are right, I'm trying to triple or quadruple on species/goals. I want to be in a particular part of the state, have doe tags, and bird hunt... Probably a big mistake and I appreciate the advice. I need to simplify, I have the time to do it all - just not in the same spot. THanks!
 
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Tod osier

Tod osier

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I’ve got some similar goals for this fall but with a 6.67 point average. Personally, I’m kind of giving up on the doe tags. With the tags cuts and the way apps are rising, doe tags are becoming a real long shot. I’d look at two different units if I were you for bucks and does. A good unit and you should be able to fill doe tags in a morning with a bit of luck.

Doing that right now, that makes a lot of sense. Thanks.
 

Mojave

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At 8 points I am not going to sacrifice them for a less than stellar unit.

That is all I am saying. I have a specific unit I want to hunt, and that is what it is.

I can buy an outfitted hunt in Texas or New Mexico for $3000-3500 any year.
 

JRMiller

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Three years ago there were a few public land units that took no points, now they take 3-4, just to five you an idea.
And doe tags that were a given are now low odds to draw (NR)
 

JFK

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The real question is whether this year will be anything like last year. Yes, the greater trend is towards more apps, fewer tags, but last year was a real anomaly across western states in terms of the increase in applicants. Lots of people out of work, stimulus checks to pay for tags, etc If it’s a continuation of next year it will be very ugly when results come out next month. I’d like to hope that it at least slows down some. That said, I’ve been blown out of the water two years in a row on Wyoming antelope due to massive point creep, so I went back to the drawing board, picked a less desirable unit and hope to go hunting versus another year of disappointment.
 

406life

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The real question is whether this year will be anything like last year.
I have every expectation based on applications already this year across the west that it will be as difficult if not more so to draw tags as last year. I don't know how many years we will see 0-1 point units for antelope in WY, but I expect they will be short. People are figuring out the leftover units, building relationships and banking on them for the following year. Tag numbers are decreased, development is always lurking, as is the changing environmental. Very little paints a positive outlook. WY antelope is something I would be cashing in on ASAP.
 

wapitibob

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I always pay attention to what you say in regard to the draws in Wyoming, in this case I'm not sure what you are saying means. Are you saying that there is creep even if it isn't realized in terms of people applying, but the pool out points out there is growing regardless? I've put a lot of time into looking at the data for the past several years and last years data was more wacky with more unexplained changes in points required than past years, but for the range of units I'm looking at realized creep was minimal (compared to the higher point units). This year with the changes planned there will be a lot of surprises I think, that is why I'm having a tough time.

What I'm saying is, for a given point level, say 5 in this instance, the odds reports will show 400 applicants that applied for hunts, but there are 600 more guys with 5 points sitting on the sidelines that didn't apply and just bought a point. The same is true for every point level so some of the creep you are seeing is these guys with 6/7/8 points finally deciding to apply for a hunt and the guy with 5 and thought he had 100% odds just got kicked to the curb. They've been there the whole time but there isn't an easy mechanism to see them.
 
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Tod osier

Tod osier

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What I'm saying is, for a given point level, say 5 in this instance, the odds reports will show 400 applicants that applied for hunts, but there are 600 more guys with 5 points sitting on the sidelines that didn't apply and just bought a point. The same is true for every point level so some of the creep you are seeing is these guys with 6/7/8 points finally deciding to apply for a hunt and the guy with 5 and thought he had 100% odds just got kicked to the curb. They've been there the whole time but there isn't an easy mechanism to see them.

Thanks, that is just what I thought you were saying, but is this the year for those guys?!?! :)
 

Mojave

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There is no crystal ball on point creep, and whatever happens this year might be something that continues for a few years.
 

Jimss

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Mar 6, 2015
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I've kept tight tabs on draw odds for Wyo the past 30+ years. Demand for quality units continues to grow each year. Also, units that used to be drawn as 2nd choice units now take several pref pts to draw. The days of drawing buck tags every year are pretty much gone.....especially in years like the last few where tag numbers are cut. Obviously winterkill, predators, drought, disease, poor habitat tie into how many fawns are born every year which is directly related to how many tags are issued in any given year.

One thing I've noticed is that the WG&F cut doe tags in many scattered units across the state while either cutting or keeping buck tags fairly similar to last year. In some units both buck plus doe tags have been cut. Obviously with fewer buck tags issued the past few years PLUS more applicants vying for these tags each year it will take more years for applicants to filter through the draw system.

The WG&F is also charging more and more to apply for tags/pref pts. It's getting fairly expensive to apply and more nonres tend to be applying for tags rather than willing to pay high prices just to apply for pts.

With that said, I would expect draw odds to continue to rise each year in the future. You may want to consider the price and the number of years it will take to draw high demand tags.
 
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I called about a unit I was interested it ( we have 3.66 points) to see if they cut the number of type one tags for the unit. That would definitely affect the points needed to get a tag.


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