Idaho sheep draw question

[cbeard64]

Basically all I’m saying is if there is no particular sequence the computer goes through on any particular parameter in any given draw then there is no way to predict your real odds of drawing ahead of time. The best you can do is an educated guess based on total numbers of apps vs. tags.

Even figuring what your odds were on a tag you drew is impossible to do without knowing exactly how the computer did the draw step-by-step in that particular draw. Because that’s the only way you know where you stood in relation to everyone else at the moment your name came out of the hat.

I can figure my odds in WY now because I have no chance in the PP draw, there is 1 NR random draw tag and usually about 1700-1900 guys applying for it.

 

[cbeard64]

They odds Epic posts are correct but are misleading…they give the odds for that hunt code that had a NR drawn. Yes if one tag is drawn in a hunt code out of 10 NR applicants it is 10% but you are in the pool with 90 additional residents so you are actually at 1%…and there are also another 30 or so hunt codes that COULD draw a non resident out of the massive number of residents. The odds are a LOT worse that everyone lets on for NR in Idaho sheep. I’d assume the same for goat and moose but I don’t pay attention as one mountain goat is plenty for me and I don’t care to shoot a little moose.

Agree 100%. I would personally characterize the way they give the odds as incorrect based on your correct analysis.But they are certainly misleading at the very least.

 

[Tmcgarrigle]

I get that they can draw the only tag in a one tag unit in Idaho (which is impossible to do in some states so you have to be real careful). But what I don’t know is if you can predict when in the draw the computer will draw for any particular unit. If you can’t, then you don’t know whether or not you will be “drawing dead” or not. If you can know the unit draw order, then everyone applying for units drawn late in the draw have a high chance of “drawing dead”.

I don’t know exactly how the various states’ computers do their draws so I can’t figure the exact odds ahead of time for any particular unit. If the computers don’t draw in any particular unit order, no one can. I have always been told the computers in all states are random as to both 1)what units come up for drawing and 2)what NR tag apps are drawn along the way. I know that’s true in at least a few states but I have never looked that closely to see if that’s how ID does it.

That’s probably clear as mud.

You're correct. And they don't go by hunt code. They put all applicants in a hat and start drawing by application and what is available. If the first name drawn out of a hat is a nonres with a first choice unit XX tag, they are getting it. The first 9 applicants in the draw could all be nonresidents drawn but as soon as the cap it hit, the rest are thrown out and it is all residents front there on out. Hence the drawing dead.

To your second comment, "Basically all I’m saying is if there is no particular sequence the computer goes through on any particular parameter in any given draw then there is no way to predict your real odds of drawing ahead of time. The best you can do is an educated guess based on total numbers of apps vs. tags."

Since they don't draw by hunt code or in any order of hunt code, it is a lot more like a lottery and you are 100% correct, there is no real way to predict your odds and that is why the companies do simple odds just based on how many applied for the unit and how many res/nonres drew.

 

[Steve O]

I can figure my odds in WY now because I have no chance in the PP draw, there is 1 NR random draw tag and usually about 1700-1900 guys applying for it.

Don’t give up hope…the Utah mountain goat tag I drew was 1:2412

 

[S-3 ranch]

Don’t you need to get permission from Doug Sayer to win in Idaho?
he has a say in sheep permits in Idaho with allocation

 

[TVW]

Don’t you need to get permission from Doug Sayer to win in Idaho?
he has a say in sheep permits in Idaho with allocation

Please elaborate....

 

[S-3 ranch]

Please elaborate....

He has been known to influence the f&w board to steer the sheep tags in Idaho

 

[Andrew12gauge]

I get that they can draw the only tag in a one tag unit in Idaho (which is impossible to do in some states so you have to be real careful). But what I don’t know is if you can predict when in the draw the computer will draw for any particular unit. If you can’t, then you don’t know whether or not you will be “drawing dead” or not. If you can know the unit draw order, then everyone applying for units drawn late in the draw have a high chance of “drawing dead”.

I don’t know exactly how the various states’ computers do their draws so I can’t figure the exact odds ahead of time for any particular unit. If the computers don’t draw in any particular unit order, no one can. I have always been told the computers in all states are random as to both 1)what units come up for drawing and 2)what NR tag apps are drawn along the way. I know that’s true in at least a few states but I have never looked that closely to see if that’s how ID does it.

That’s probably clear as mud.

They don’t draw any unit/hunt code in any order, they literally throw all the names, both resident and nonresident, in a hat pull them out and put them in order. Once they have the names in order they go down the list, determining solely on each applicants 1st choice whether a tag is available. If you are a NR you first have to be within the statewide 10% cap and then NR cannot have more than 10% of any one hunt, but they can draw even in single tag units, essentially there will not be 2 NR drawn on any single hunt.

So to figure out your odds of drawing as a nonresident take the total number of nonresident applicants across all open sheep hunts(x) and then 9/x=% chances assuming that NR’s get the 9 tag max. Then just hope that you aren’t unlucky enough to be the 2nd NR for the same unit.


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[ladogg411]

Wtf are you guys talking about. The advertised NR sheep draw odds are on the Idaho gfd website. And they look amazing. I'm in.

 

[LostWapiti]

A couple years ago I decided to go for it, last year I decided it was a dumb waste of money and stayed in the sidelines, this year I couldn’t help myself. Anyone know when the draw results date is?

 

[Tmcgarrigle]

Most likely the week of 5/20

 

[Andrew12gauge]

Wtf are you guys talking about. The advertised NR sheep draw odds are on the Idaho gfd website. And they look amazing. I'm in.

But they aren’t the real odds, your real odds are essentially NR tags available(9)/total NR applications. Some units individually might look good because 1 NR who applied for that tag got lucky and drew a tag, but you’re discounting all of the 0% draw odds units for NR


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[Andrew12gauge]

Just for fun I just went and did the math to add up total NR applicants last year. There were 2098 total NR sheep applicants in 2023. NR did draw their max of 9 tags. So your real NR sheep odds for 2023 were 9/2098 or 0.42%. That is realistically about as close to true draw odds for Idaho sheep tags as you’ll ever really get because you cannot predict which units tags will be drawn in(11 and 37 are usually pretty safe bets just due to overall number of NR applicants)

The reality is the odds could be less than that as I am not including resident applicants in the mix and even if you are in the top 9 NR on the list all residents could theoretically be drawn ahead of all nonresidents.


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[Tmcgarrigle]

Wtf are you guys talking about. The advertised NR sheep draw odds are on the Idaho gfd website. And they look amazing. I'm in.

They don’t draw at the hunt code level. Or is basically a raffle at the for the entire species until the quota is hit for nonresidents and then they draw the rest until all are filled

 

[CMF]

At least in random draw states like ID and NM you can get a rough idea by just taking total NR apps vs. total NR tags drawn.

But they aren’t the real odds, your real odds are essentially NR tags available(9)/total NR applications.

Not exactly

Just for fun I just went and did the math to add up total NR applicants last year. There were 2098 total NR sheep applicants in 2023. NR did draw their max of 9 tags. So your real NR sheep odds for 2023 were 9/2098 or 0.42%.

Not when you factor in the high variability of the total applicants per hunt code. As soon as one NR applicant draws a hunt code, those other NR applicants are drawing dead. You have much better odds in a hunt code with less total applicants and less NR applicants.
Example:
hunt code A: 1000 total applicants 200NR applicants
hunt code B: 100 total applicants 10 NR applicants

The very first name drawn is a NR for hunt code A. Every other NR in hunt code A is now drawing dead.

Applicants in hunt code B have a much better chance of drawing than hunt code A.
The total number of applicants in hunt code A means it is also more likely to draw out before hunt code B.

 

[Andrew12gauge]

Not exactly

Not when you factor in the high variability of the total applicants per hunt code. As soon as one NR applicant draws a hunt code, those other NR applicants are drawing dead. You have much better odds in a hunt code with less total applicants and less NR applicants.
Example:
hunt code A: 1000 total applicants 200NR applicants
hunt code B: 100 total applicants 10 NR applicants

The very first name drawn is a NR for hunt code A. Every other NR in hunt code A is now drawing dead.

Applicants in hunt code B have a much better chance of drawing than hunt code A.
The total number of applicants in hunt code A means it is also more likely to draw out before hunt code B.

Hunt code A might have all their applicants drawing dead sooner, but B might never see a NR applicant drawn. The truth is as a NR you are up against all other NR, get lucky and be the 1st name pulled from the hat on your particular choice and you have a tag, assuming 9 NR who applied for other hunts don’t draw ahead of you.


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[CMF]

The truth is as a NR you are up against all other NR,

That's not the truth the second a NR tag is pulled for a hunt code. You are no longer up against those applicants.
Let's assume 11 draws first. You just eliminated 19% of NR applicants after drawing 1 of 9 tags.

The point is, it's not a simple "NR tags available(9)/total NR applications".

I believe the way Go Hunt does it accounts for this, running simulations, and then posting an average of the results. That is why they have odds varying from 0.23% to 3%+.

 

[cbeard64]

That's not the truth the second a NR tag is pulled for a hunt code. You are no longer up against those applicants.
Let's assume 11 draws first. You just eliminated 19% of NR applicants after drawing 1 of 9 tags.

The point is, it's not a simple "NR tags available(9)/total NR applications".

I believe the way Go Hunt does it accounts for this, running simulations, and then posting an average of the results. That is why they have odds varying from 0.23% to 3%+.

Lots of factors. So the best one can do is make an educated guess. One thing you can be sure of is that if you see NR sheep draw percentages that look too high - they almost certainly are. I applaud the services that attempt to be as realistic as possible, because most don’t. Probably because it benefits them to show better odds than actually exist.

 

[Doc Holliday]

Bottom line is if you don't play, you can't win. Odds matter for picking which unit to put in for, but beyond that it's best to look at it like lottery tickets, because that's what it is. There is a reason outfitters in Alberta are getting $70-100K for 25% chance at a squeaker, and are booked out until 2026 with L48 hunters.