Required precision video and using WEZ

[Formidilosus]

This is basically what I've done, with Tikkas set up identically in .22lr and 284 Win, and I've seen basically no difference in score.

Do that standing to prone per shot as I wrote above for ten shots on a Kraft Target. Then take a picture.

 

[solarshooter]

I will rerun the drill as Form described it, now adding in my newly built Tikka 6CM, but it will also be a week or two before I get to it.

In the meantime, I used my homebaked calculator as described earlier in this thread to run the 7rm, 6.5cm, and 223 hit rates. Here's what I found:

Cartridge and Bullet	G7 BC	MV (fps)	2SD group (moa)	Range for 80% hit rate on 12" target (yds)	Range for 50% hit rate on 12" target (yds)
223, Berger 75VLD	0.216	2850	1.2	320	480
6.5, Berger 140 EH	0.310	2800	1.4	370	570
7rm, Berger 175EH	0.336	2900	2.0	360	570

So based on this analysis, the 6.5CM and 7RM are neck and neck in terms of overall hit rates out to 600. 223 falls behind even at 300yds, and is significantly behind at 600.

 

[stan_wa]

At the most basic level, the math is the math. We don't get to make up a separate definition of what SD is.

In some sense I'm just restating what you said, but my takeaway from what form has written about it is that people are just even worse at judging wind than they think.

Even without taking that into consideration it's a very hard thing to put a number to. Probably the single hardest WEZ input to get even close to right.

I agree with you. The math don’t lie. if the wind is under 10 mph you shouldn’t be wrong by 8 mph that seems really unlikely.

1-2 mph mean and 2 mph Sd seems more reasonable for situations I would consider taking a MER shot

Now if the wind is doing 20 and has crazy currents affecting it due to broken terrain 8 seems pretty legit. And I like the idea that we ans hunters need to understand the reality of how hard a first round impact is at 600. Even with the best system and good shooting skills will be very hard ( near impossible) to get to the 70-80% hits on deer and elk.

 

[aschuler]

FWIW the Bison Ballistics website also has a hit probability calculator you can play with. I'm curious how it compares to WEZ

Hit Probability Calculator

A free hit probability calculator for long range shooting.

bisonballistics.com

 

[Formidilosus]

I agree with you. The math don’t lie. if the wind is under 10 mph you shouldn’t be wrong by 8 mph that seems really unlikely.

It’s not only likely in broken mountainous terrain- it’s extremely likely. Every single day, all over the maintain west there are winds that are 10-20 mph at the shooter and 0 mph in the valley and/or across the drainages, and vice versa. And everywhere in between.

1-2 mph mean and 2 mph Sd seems more reasonable for situations I would consider taking a MER shot

In variable mountain winds- 2mph in the WEZ is near world class wind calling.

Flat terrain it’s easy to be within 2-3 MPH, as soon as the terrain is broken, it’s extremely difficult to be.

 

[Macintosh]

This is basically what I've done, with Tikkas set up identically in .22lr and 284 Win, and I've seen basically no difference in score.

Thats pretty amazing to me. When I do a kraft drill or anything similar (I usually do all unsupported positions except for prone off a bipod), it forces you to break position between shots so every shot includes the mechanical precision, so the recoil kicks my butt. For me, the variations in recoil absorption from getting freshly into each position really illustrates how much the variation between each time I build the “same” position changes how Im able to deal with recoil, and I can clearly see the groups open up with higher recoil.

 

[solarshooter]

I think it would be really valuable to compile some data on the effects of recoil on accuracy using the community of shooters here and the Kraft/Form drill. Not sure how much interest there is in something like that but I have been puzzling with quantifying recoil effects for a long time.

 

[stan_wa]

It’s not only likely in broken mountainous terrain- it’s extremely likely. Every single day, all over the maintain west there are winds that are 10-20 mph at the shooter and 0 mph in the valley and/or across the drainages, and vice versa. And everywhere in between.



In variable mountain winds- 2mph in the WEZ is near world class wind calling.

Flat terrain it’s easy to be within 2-3 MPH, as soon as the terrain is broken, it’s extremely difficult to be.

I can agree 10-20 for sure happens! My basic idea is that in low wind we can call wind more precisely then in strong winds .
@Formidilosus as an aside I appreciate the way you and the roksliders have made me consider these ideas more carefully.

I am struggling to understand why lower recoil would be better than higher BC and higher muzzle velocities as made possible with a magnum in the hunting application where we are engaging targets at a max effective range. I can totally see the benefit in a standing application, or when a sub optimal support is being used. For me personally the only time I would be engaging an animal at my max effective range would be if I can get in a position where I have data on the groups that I would shoot from that position. For example, I have pretty good data on my precision shooting prone . I think it’s totally fair to say that that precision is not achievable under time pressure or from a compromised position.
I dont seeany correlation between recoil and precision from the prone position whether that be shooting my 7 lbs. 28 nOsler or the tika 22.

This makes me think that when you’re prone With adequate time to make a shot like you’ve practiced, the magnum should have an advantage due to reducing the wind error. I think it is possible, and reasonable that a magnum might lose this advantage in a compromised position or under time pressure.


And I’ll just say I’m interested enough in the benefits of the lower recording cartridges as you have advertised to the point that I built a six Creedmoor and I will be seeing what I can accomplish with this compared to my magnum

 

[solarshooter]

Now here's the same test for @stan_wa 's Seekins Havak Element in 28 Nos, all based on real data:

Cartridge and Bullet	G7 BC	MV (fps)	2SD group (moa)	Range for 80% hit rate on 12" target (yds)	Range for 50% hit rate on 12" target (yds)
223, Berger 75VLD	0.216	2850	1.2	320	480
6.5, Berger 140 EH	0.310	2800	1.4	370	570
7rm, Berger 175EH	0.336	2900	2.0	360	570
28 Nos, Berger 195EOL	0.387	2850	1.1	440	680

Now I know what you're thinking, that can't be right because a giant magnum in a 6lb platform can't possibly shoot a 1.1moa 20shot group. Well, I'm here to tell you, this Seekins is the most confusingly accurate and light gun I've ever shot. It has a big ol' brake on it and it's the loudest gun at the range, but it stacks 195s and feels as light as a toy. Recoil is no worse than a 308 and impacts can be spotted even at 200yds on max zoom. So, with this real example and data, can we really say more recoil is ALWAYS worse?

 

[Formidilosus]

Now here's the same test for @stan_wa 's Seekins Havak Element in 28 Nos, all based on real data:

Cartridge and Bullet	G7 BC	MV (fps)	2SD group (moa)	Range for 80% hit rate on 12" target (yds)	Range for 50% hit rate on 12" target (yds)
223, Berger 75VLD	0.216	2850	1.2	320	480
6.5, Berger 140 EH	0.310	2800	1.4	370	570
7rm, Berger 175EH	0.336	2900	2.0	360	570
28 Nos, Berger 195EOL	0.387	2850	1.1	440	680

Now I know what you're thinking, that can't be right because a giant magnum in a 6lb platform can't possibly shoot a 1.1moa 20shot group. Well, I'm here to tell you, this Seekins is the most confusingly accurate and light gun I've ever shot. It has a big ol' brake on it and it's the loudest gun at the range, but it stacks 195s and feels as light as a toy. Recoil is no worse than a 308 and impacts can be spotted even at 200yds on max zoom. So, with this real example and data, can we really say more recoil is ALWAYS worse?

There’s a very large difference between shooting “x” size group for 10 or 20 rounds, and hitting “x” size target with 10 or 20 rounds on demand.


I can’t say you aren’t hitting 20 1” targets in a row at 100 yards building and breaking the prone position down for each shot with a 28 Nosler. I can say, in hundreds of shooters, and tens of thousands of rounds a year- I have never seen someone do it.

 

[Formidilosus]

I think it would be really valuable to compile some data on the effects of recoil on accuracy using the community of shooters here and the Kraft/Form drill. Not sure how much interest there is in something like that but I have been puzzling with quantifying recoil effects for a long time.

It’s being worked on right now.

 

[Formidilosus]

I am struggling to understand why lower recoil would be better than higher BC and higher muzzle velocities as made possible with a magnum in the hunting application where we are engaging targets at a max effective range. I can totally see the benefit in a standing application, or when a sub optimal support is being used.

(Bolded part). That is hunting. Unless the only shots you ever take are perfectly proned out, 30 minutes to dry fire on an animal, never ever shoot one moving, or rushed, never get excited, etc, etc. If you ever do any of those, then no- the heaviest recoiling/most muzzle blast rifle does not result in the highest success rate. Even if you do have all of those, people do not shoot in unfamiliar situations like they do on their perfectly calm range.

Humans are the largest source of error. That is what people fail to, or refuse to admit. We miss do to the largest source of error-

The largest sources of error, in order-

1). We suck

2). Rifle system wasn’t truly zeroed

3). Rifle system lost zero

4). Rifle system had an incorrect zero

5). Wind


People do not know, or are not honest about their on demand, no excuse skill level and ability.

For me personally the only time I would be engaging an animal at my max effective range would be if I can get in a position where I have data on the groups that I would shoot from that position. For example, I have pretty good data on my precision shooting prone . I think it’s totally fair to say that that precision is not achievable under time pressure or from a compromised position.

Every shot that isn’t on a golf course flat range is a compromised position. Nearly every shot that is at a living animal is under some type of time pressure. Thats the issue- people want to use “their best” possible, as their “on demand”. It isn’t the same, and it isn’t close.

I dont seeany correlation between recoil and precision from the prone position whether that be shooting my 7 lbs. 28 nOsler or the tika 22.

Then you are the only human alive that shoots a rifle with 40+ ft-lbs of recoil exactly the same as one with 1 ft-lbs of recoil. Or… you are going off of limited sample size/best day I remember.

This makes me think that when you’re prone With adequate time to make a shot like you’ve practiced, the magnum should have an advantage due to reducing the wind error. I think it is possible, and reasonable that a magnum might lose this advantage in a compromised position or under time pressure.

So…. Hunting?

 

[Macintosh]

A very reasonable “timed but very forgiving” 2-shot drill, one shot at each of two side by side paper targets, repeated 5 or 10 times breaking position each time, would make this very easy to test both first shot and follow-up shot accuracy and precision. Would also allow comparing different rifles.

Whats the test drill, I’m game to try?

 

[Toomuchon]

It’s being worked on right now.

Thanks @Formidilosus for your education here. I think this is one of the most overlooked parts of the equation. It’s easy to be drawn to heavy slick bullets at high velocity as their performance is easy to categorise. Human performance on the other hand is difficult to put into a data table, because (as you say) we get emotional about how good we are (not).

I was seriously looking at moving to a 7mmRM, and was trying to find the evidence to counter that decision. Looks like I’ve found the reason to stay with the T3x 6.5

 

[Antares]

The largest sources of error, in order-

1). We suck

2). Rifle system wasn’t truly zeroed

3). Rifle system lost zero

4). Rifle system had an incorrect zero

5). Wind

Please remind me, what’s the difference between #2 and #4?

 

[Formidilosus]

Please remind me, what’s the difference between #2 and #4?

In functional terms- little. But, #2 is someone thought that they had an “x” zero but they didn’t.
#4 is they actually had an “x” zero, but it was sub par- like a 300 yard zero, etc.

Functionally 2-4 result in the same outcome, but for different reasons.

 

[stan_wa]

Then you are the only human alive that shoots a rifle with 40+ ft-l

I’m only saying they’re the same shooting from prone at 100 yards

I’m not here trying to change your mind that a magnum is better than a six mil in every way for all situations. I’m just presenting the concept that a magnum shooting prone has more than acceptable precision so why not take advantage of the decreased wind effect when we’re specifically thinking about first round hits.

I’m not totally convinced the “ recoil error” is outweighing the wind advantage I’m also not sure how we even go about gathering the data to quantify that.

I am open to the idea that shooting standing, kneeling, off your pack, and at high angles should have different precisions than shooting prone.

But if the recoil doesn’t cause a significant effect on precision from the prone( because small changes in precision don’t help us much ) Why does it make such a big difference in other positions?

When I test taking shots sitting off my pack, I still get acceptably good groups or off the quick sticks with a pack in the back . They might not be as good as prone, but I haven’t seen the massive difference the recoils causes and I went out looking to find it.

I think if we can get some solid data that could be verified on quantifying this recoil error I might get converted, but until then, reducing wind error seems to have some merit.