What are your thoughts on the Kung Flu?

[Mule3006Elk]

I was wondering about NK, of course if they had an outbreak they wouldn’t share that info.

They weren’t terribly far from isolation anyway.

I would say if you contract the flu in NK right now you and your family are shot, burned and ash spread in with pig shit.

Truth in that statement. No doubt. He doesn't have the medical capabilities to take care of a massive outbreak within his borders. He said there will be consequences. Those in charge of maintaining 'containment,' if they fail, who knows. i suspect death that's his M.O. I do applaud him for taking extreme measures to prevent COVID-19. My point is, globally this would need to happen to prevent spread of disease. Global border shutdown. Unfortunately, even in the face of a highly resistance pathogen, viral or bacterial or bioterrorism, I think leaders would be too slow to respond.

 

[Diddywahdiddy]

Hey Gang,

1. To show the current economic facts, my next post will show SOME of the current economic effects directly due to COVID-19...as of yesterday...from the WSJ, Barron's, the BBC, and World Economic Forum
2. I hope COVID-19 doesn't cancel my Yukon sheep hunt in August...too early to tell.
3. As one who has worked in the Medical Field since the 1980's, IMO "this time it's different", especially as I'm less than 5 years from retirement and have "been there, done that, seen it all". BTW, my "Stop-Loss" orders kicked in on my 401K, 457b, and SEP-IRA Monday morning...wasn't too happy about it THEN, but with the carnage over the week and at Friday's closing, I'm glad that over 50% is NOW in US Treasuries...at least until the dust settles, and IMO it will take at least 2-3 quarters, or more, if we normalize.

Here is some light reading from, again, one of Ronald Reagan's (a true leader and one of my heroes, yet still a human capable of admitting his mistakes) staffers/speech writers, Peggy Noonan, in this morning's WSJ:

Trump Isn’t Easing Coronavirus Forebodings

If it hits America hard, a lot will change—the national mood, cultural habits, the economy.

-- The Wall Street Journal: February 27, 2020





I’ve got a feeling the coronavirus is going to be bad, that it will have a big impact on America, more than we imagine, and therefore on its politics. As this is written the virus is reported in 48 nations. We’ve had a first case with no known source, in California, and the state is monitoring some 8,400 others for possible infection. Canada has 13 cases. There have been outbreaks in Iran and Italy; in Rome, there are worries because Pope Francis had to cancel a Lenten Mass due to what the Vatican called a “slight indisposition.”

There’s a lot we don’t know but much we do. We know coronavirus is highly communicable, that person-to-person transmission is easy and quick. Most who get it won’t even know they’re sick—it feels like a cold and passes. But about 20% will get really sick. Among them, mortality rates are low but higher than for the flu, and higher still among those who are older or impaired.

So it’s serious: A lot of people will be exposed and a significant number will be endangered. And of course there’s no vaccine.

We live in a global world. Everybody’s going everyplace all the time. Nothing is contained in the ways it used to be. It seems to me impossible that there are not people walking along the streets in the U.S. who have it, don’t know it and are spreading it.

Americans are focusing. If you go to Amazon.com you famously find that the best face masks are no longer available, but check out the prices of hand sanitizers. They appear to be going up rather sharply! (Note to Jeff Bezos: if this turns bad and people start making accusations about price gouging and profiteers, public sentiment won’t just be hard on manufacturers, they’ll blame you too. Whatever downward pressure can be applied, do it now, not later.)

If you limit your focus to politics, to 2020 election outcomes, you find yourself thinking this: Maybe it’s all being decided not in the next few weeks of primaries but in the next few weeks of the virus, how much it spreads, and how it’s handled.

If coronavirus becomes a formally recognized world-wide pandemic, and if it hits America hard, it is going to change a lot—the national mood, our cultural habits, the economy.

The president has been buoyed the past few years by a kind of inflatable raft of good economic news and strengths. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 8,581 points from the day he took office to the beginning of 2020. Unemployment is down so far it feels like full employment. Minority employment is up, incomes are up. He’s running for re-election based on these things.

But the stock market is being hit hard by virus-driven concerns. If those fears continue—and there’s no reason to believe they won’t—the gains the president has enjoyed could be wiped out.

As for unemployment, if the virus spreads people will begin to self-distance. If they shop less, if they stay home more and eat out less, and begin to cancel personal gatherings—if big professional events and annual meetings are also canceled—it will carry a whole world of bad implications.

What I notice as a traveler in America is the number of people who make a traveler’s life easier, and whose jobs depend on heavy travel—all the people in the airport shops and concessions, and those who work in hotels. There’s the woman whose small flower shop makes the arrangements for the donor reception at the community forum, and the floor managers, waiters and waitresses at the charity fundraising dinner. Local contractors, drivers, the sound man who wires the dinner speaker. Many are part of the gig economy, operating without the protections of contracts and unions. If the virus spreads and events are canceled, they will be out of jobs. And that’s just one sliver of American life.

In a public-health crisis the role of government is key. The question will be—the question is—are the president and his administration up to it?

Our scientists and health professionals are. (I think people see Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health as the de facto president on this.) Is Donald Trump? Or has he finally met a problem he can’t talk his way out of? I have written in the past questioning whether he can lead and reassure the nation in a time of crisis. We are about to find out.

Leaders in crises function as many things. They are primary givers of information, so they have to know the facts. They have to be serious: They must master the data. Are they managerially competent? Most of all, are they trustworthy and credible?

Or do people get the sense they’re spinning, finagling, covering up failures and shading the facts?

It is in crisis that you see the difference between showmanship and leadership.

Early signs are not encouraging. The messaging early this week was childish—everything’s under control, everything’s fine. The president’s news conference Wednesday night was not reassuring. Stock market down? “I think the financial markets are very upset when they look at the Democratic candidates standing on that stage making fools out of themselves.” “The risk to the American people remains very low.” “Whatever happens we’re totally prepared.” “There’s no reason to panic, because we have done so good.”

It was inadequate to the task.

I wonder if the president understands what jeopardy he’s in, how delicate even strong economies are, and how provisional good fortune is.

If you want to talk about what could make a progressive win the presidency it couldn’t be a better constellation than this: an epidemic, an economic downturn, a broad sense of public anxiety, and an incumbent looking small. Especially if the progressive says he stands for one big thing, health care for everyone.

The only candidate to bring up the threat of coronavirus at the Democratic debate the other night was Mike Bloomberg. This is how you’ll know the fact of the virus has hit the political class: Politicians will stop doing what they’ve done for more than two centuries. They’ll stop shaking hands. It will be a new world of waving, nodding emphatically, and patting your chest with your hand.

It would be extremely reassuring if a temporary armistice were called in the cold war between the White House and congressional Democrats. If the virus is as serious as I think it is, no one will look back kindly on anyone who acted small.

 

[Diddywahdiddy]

From this morning's WSJ...this is not a political set of comments, just facts. Remember, the economy is a GLOBAL economy intertwined at all levels from basic materials to High-Tech finished products. These are for 1st quarter or Jan/Feb 2020-DIRECTLY DUE TO COVID-19
1. Last week erased $3.6 trillion from the US (not international) stock market...401k's; IRA's; 457b's.
2. 9.4% decrease in US Travel Agency tickets last week alone, as compared to same period y2019.
3. $50-$60 million decrease in Under Armour sales 1st quarter related to C-19.
4. 291,000 employee overseas' business trips for Nestle' Corp alone, cancelled.
5. $100,000,000 loss for chip-maker NVIDIA 1st quarter
6. 12-13% reduction in Puma sportswear production...due to loss of China production
7. $50 million loss 1st quarter to Royal Caribbean Cruise Line
8. 35% reduction in Microsoft sales 1st quarter due to supply-chain disruption
9. $25 million drop in Mariott's revenue due to cancellations to the "Asia-Pacific" region 1st quarter
10. GOOD NEWS FOR CLIMATE-40% reduction in China coal consumption power plants!!
11. 75% drop 1st quarter for United Airlines to "Asia-Pacific region EXCLUDING CHINA".
12. $45 million drop in Ralph Lauren sales in China/South Korea/Japan 1st quarter.
13. $100 billion "hit" to revenues worldwide to airports/airlines/related support industries (projected)
14. $1 trillion (projected) loss in global output resulting from extended shutdown in China.
15. 1st quarter-Over 200,000 commercial flights cancelled to/from/within China.
16. February alone-25% drop in container shipments at Port of Los Angeles-the largest US gateway for seaborne imports from China.
17. 15% drop in AAPL revenue 1st quarter.
18. Brent crude drop from Jan '20 @ $68/barrel to $50.52 as of yesterday...good for consumers, bad for US oil companies, drillers, pipelines, equipment suppliers...
19. 17,600-the number of Proctor & Gamble products that rely SOLELY on China for raw/manufactured materials.


So. How long will it last? Revenues slashed, supply chains roiled, retirement accounts losing an average of 13% just last week alone.
FYI-There is not a single factory in the USA that manufactures Aspirin, Penicillin, or Penicillin derivatives such as Amoxicillin and Ampicillin-the vast majority is manufactured in China and Mexico.

My opinion is that this is a window of opportunity for a bipartisan push for creation of a public/private series of partnerships to identify those multiple areas in which the USA's economy, and medical supplies, is solely dependent upon the Communist Party of China...and begin to make that change. If not we are perpetually China's (rhymes with "witch").

Peace to all. Time to go for a run, with Best of Drive-By Truckers blaring loudly, then a few steps at the local high school stadium with my 2012 Eberlestock "Just One" pack with a few pounds of winter wheat stuffed on top of some rolled-up towels. The Yukon beckons come August.
Best,
DWD

 

[WannabeHunter]

Great News - Spike Protein

There was some wonderful news that came out last week if some didn't see it. There's hope that this spike protein could be synthesized and possibly used as a vaccine or as a means for developing antivirals to combat (if it really gets to that point). Modern science and scientists are already coming up with solutions while most of the world tries to throw blame.

 

[T28w]

I guess it just depends on how u view trump.

I don’t there was a community acquired case of covid at the time of the “press conference”. The press literally hates trump. I don’t think that any one could argue that and if they try, I think it says a lot. The questions he was getting asked were more about the stock market and travel stocks lol.

If it is going to spread, not much can be done. It just is the nature of our society today. No matter what happens the media is going to try and roast trump. If it turns out to be nothing, the story will just vanish like a fart in the wind lol.

I don’t love trump as president but I think he is miles ahead of anyone else that we will have to pick from.

 

[Fatcamp]

Holy cats! All that typing and you didn't address the question we all really have on our minds: How will the economic downturn and influenza pandemic effect Wyoming draw odds for 2020?

 

[BroodBuster]

My thoughts on the Kung Flu.

I may have already gotten it. I was sick pretty much the entire month of January and much of February. In fact I'm just now starting to feel 100%. Started as a sore throat and then moved to a nasty dry congested cough. What could best be described as a low grade prolonged flu which is exactly how this virus is being described. Also broke out in a rash which is what got me to the doctors office first week of January and where Doc said, "yep you've go a virus."

If I haven't already gotten it I've probably been exposed to it. Of all the confirmed cases here in Wa all are within about six miles of where I'm sitting. I work with a ton of parents including parents who kids go to Mill Creek where one confirmed case is. I work and interact with a ton of Asians including many who have recently arrived from Asia. If I haven't already been exposed I soon will be.

The first confirmed death was at the hospital just down the street and is where I had my hip replaced about two years ago. Excellent hospital that took excellent care of me and I feel real sorry for the family and loved ones of the deceased. Word on the street is that she was elderly but I'm not particularly young.

And even with all of that I'm not changing a damn thing. Folks can freak out all they want but the simple fact is that there is no cure for a virus other than the human body. Even vaccines kill people. The press and especially the Government want to get everyone all worked up about pretty much everything. I don't trust Government to be able to fill potholes so why would I believe they can contain something that has never been contained throughout all of human history????

If I get sick again I'll blame Trump. If I get sick and die I'll blame Inslee. As I'm an equal opportunity party politician hater.

Getting ready for a spring fishing/skiing trip to Idaho. I don't expect to see a line at the boat ramp or at the ski lift . I figure no better time to travel. Although I'd never get on a cruise ship. Them damn things are floating pandemics even in the best of times. One drunk forgets to wipe their ass and half the ship gets sick! No thanks!!

So my thoughts?

Carry on till the day I die!! And in the meantime buy buy buy!

 

[Fatcamp]

My thoughts on the Kung Flu.

I may have already gotten it. I was sick pretty much the entire month of January and much of February. In fact I'm just now starting to feel 100%. Started as a sore throat and then moved to a nasty dry congested cough. What could best be described as a low grade prolonged flu which is exactly how this virus is being described. Also broke out in a rash which is what got me to the doctors office first week of January and where Doc said, "yep you've go a virus."

If I haven't already gotten it I've probably been exposed to it. Of all the confirmed cases here in Wa all are within about six miles of where I'm sitting. I work with a ton of parents including parents who kids go to Mill Creek where one confirmed case is. I work and interact with a ton of Asians including many who have recently arrived from Asia. If I haven't already been exposed I soon will be.

The first confirmed death was at the hospital just down the street and is where I had my hip replaced about two years ago. Excellent hospital that took excellent care of me and I feel real sorry for the family and loved ones of the deceased. Word on the street is that she was elderly but I'm not particularly young.

And even with all of that I'm not changing a damn thing. Folks can freak out all they want but the simple fact is that there is no cure for a virus other than the human body. Even vaccines kill people. The press and especially the Government want to get everyone all worked up about pretty much everything. I don't trust Government to be able to fill potholes so why would I believe they can contain something that has never been contained throughout all of human history????

If I get sick again I'll blame Trump. If I get sick and die I'll blame Inslee. As I'm an equal opportunity party politician hater.

Getting ready for a spring fishing/skiing trip to Idaho. I don't expect to see a line at the boat ramp or at the ski lift . I figure no better time to travel. Although I'd never get on a cruise ship. Them damn things are floating pandemics even in the best of times. One drunk forgets to wipe their ass and half the ship gets sick! No thanks!!

So my thoughts?

Carry on till the day I die!! And in the meantime buy buy buy!

That's what I'm saying. Wife wants a different car, I'm like: Let's just hold up a couple weeks and see what deals pop up. Baybee.

 

[Theringworm]

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?query=RP

 

[Diddywahdiddy]

Ringworm,
Thanks for sharing the NEJM post.
Dr Tony Fauci is THE man to help navigate and prepare the USA.
Best,
DWD

 

[IdahoElk]

 

[absolutezero]

death rate between 2 to 3%，doubt it。

 

[Yakykgoose]

Ok white supremacist

I moved out last fall. And just picked up a 1000 shares of Exxon at 47 yesterday . 55 today.

Im looking to pick up more deals.

I've been an oil trader for a while now...I'd get out of those Exxon shares ASAP. You are trying to catch a falling knife.

 

[Trial153]

Five year capital investment plan on top of decresed demand ....whats not to love.

 

[Apollo117]

I've been an oil trader for a while now...I'd get out of those Exxon shares ASAP. You are trying to catch a falling knife.

Would you explain this further? I'm not privy to anything that makes Exxon a falling knife. Exxon has paid a dividend for over 25 years and IMO it's likely that this recent sell off will correct pretty soon. If you're a day trader, then yeah, maybe Exxon isn't a good bet. If you are a buy and hold investor, then buying Exxon at it's lowest price in five years and then holding onto it for a long period of time is probably a good idea.

Even if Exxon stays around $47, with 1,000 shares and an average quarterly dividend rate of $0.87 per share; then the yearly dividend payout will be around $3,400 total for 12 months. That's a pretty good return on $47,000.

If you know something I don't, I'd love to hear it, barring any insider trading.

 

[Doc Holliday]

Would you explain this further? I'm not privy to anything that makes Exxon a falling knife. Exxon has paid a dividend for over 25 years and IMO it's likely that this recent sell off will correct pretty soon. If you're a day trader, then yeah, maybe Exxon isn't a good bet. If you are a buy and hold investor, then buying Exxon at it's lowest price in five years and then holding onto it for a long period of time is probably a good idea.

Even if Exxon stays around $47, with 1,000 shares and an average quarterly dividend rate of $0.87 per share; then the yearly dividend payout will be around $3,400 total for 12 months. That's a pretty good return on $47,000.

If you know something I don't, I'd love to hear it, barring any insider trading.

Of the 22 Equity Research Analysts covering XOM, 18 rate HOLD, 3 SELL, and 1 BUY. Average target price of $73.07 (upside of 42%), and 6.77% dividend.

You could do alot better on return % if income is your priority. If you want to stay in the oil sector with a dividend as a priority, OXY has 19 Analysts currently covering: 12 HOLD, 5 BUY, 1 STRONG BUY, and 1 SELL. Average target price of $57.66 (upside of 76%), and a 9.65% dividend.

XOM has always been a great blue chip name, but for long term, I prefer growth stocks which will typically not have a dividend....for growth in the oil sector, I recently got into some PXD.

For income in the energy sector, my play is GPP. 13.91% yield.

 

[SlickStickSlinger]

Buy silver and gold. It's down because it is being sold to pay for the decline. Once the market gets low enough along with silver and gold, silver and gold is probably going to get bought up and spike. What costs $16 dollars and ounce now could easily cost $100 dollars in a couple months.

I dont know a while lot about the market but I do know silver and gold isnt going anywhere and the value transfers in worst case scenarios. Consider the 1930s.

 

[*zap*]

Cash in hand, food and H2O/filters.

 

[SoDaky]

For a much less pessimistic outlook,go review last weeks numerous articles from the BBC

 

[Yakykgoose]

I live in King County, WA we just watched a local news broadcast where they contradicted alot of what we have heard from the cdc and local health officials. CDC has said to make sure you are prepared, local news said no reason to start getting supplies. Local health chief said to start considering avoiding crowds, local news said you should just go about your day. They even did a segment that was debunked pretty early in this thing about how the flu is more dangerous. They then showed interviews with only people who weren't concerned with the virus. I suspect someone's parent company is getting hammered in the stock market.

Meanwhile, huge lines at costco with a lot on non perishables out, went to fred meyers and they were out of carts to even get grocieries. Even if you dont think anything is coming of this enough people do so you better go get your grocieries.