CO application question

[sndmn11]

I looked up the draw stats right after posting my question. This is my first time elk hunting, so it's all new to me. I've tried doing my research, but information seems limited for group applications.
The unit we're applying for is 54. I just assumed the cow tag would be easier to get, but after looking at the draw stats from last year 1st rifle I'm seeing a 33% success rate for non res drawing a cow tag but 90% success for bull. The one guy wanting the cow tag might just have to switch to bull, it will boost our chances greatly. I'm sure I'm reading the draw stats correctly, seems pretty straight forward.

You are not.
Last year a 0 point non-res had an 8% chance of drawing ef05401r, and last year all first choice 0 point non-res drew em05401r while 1% of second choice applicants were successful.

You should not apply as a group with any member choosing ef05401r if any members have 0 points.
You should not select as a second choice ef05401r, find a different second choice.

 

[IrkedCitizen]

All members applying as a group must have the exact same hunt codes in the exact same order on every application that is in the group otherwise the whole group is thrown out of the draw. So the person who wants the cow tag must apply as an individual.

 

[cfish4422]

You are not.
Last year a 0 point non-res had an 8% chance of drawing ef05401r, and last year all first choice 0 point non-res drew em05401r while 1% of second choice applicants were successful.

You should not apply as a group with any member choosing ef05401r if any members have 0 points.
You should not select as a second choice ef05401r, find a different second choice.

View attachment 277940

I was

You are not.
Last year a 0 point non-res had an 8% chance of drawing ef05401r, and last year all first choice 0 point non-res drew em05401r while 1% of second choice applicants were successful.

You should not apply as a group with any member choosing ef05401r if any members have 0 points.
You should not select as a second choice ef05401r, find a different second choice.

View attachment 277940

View attachment 277939

I was just looking at the pre draw applicants vs post draw successful. I made a mistake on the cow and looked at total number of non res instead of 0 points. So I see what you're saying there. I don't see where all non res drew bull tags though. I'm seeing 94 applied but 81 drew. Great odds, but I'm not seeing that everyone drew, where am I making a mistake there?

 

[IrkedCitizen]

How did we switch over to talking about elk licenses in this person's mule deer thread? Start a new thread. Then the discussion can continue.

 

[cfish4422]

How did we switch over to talking about elk licenses in this person's mule deer thread? Start a new thread. Then the discussion can continue.

Didn't mean to hijack, sorry. This thread came up in my search and I felt my question had some relevance to the op's original question. I didn't even notice it was in mule deer.

 

[sndmn11]

All members applying as a group must have the exact same hunt codes in the exact same order on every application that is in the group otherwise the whole group is thrown out of the draw. So the person who wants the cow tag must apply as an individual.

Sex doesn't matter, species and season must match in order.

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I was just looking at the pre draw applicants vs post draw successful. I made a mistake on the cow and looked at total number of non res instead of 0 points. So I see what you're saying there. I don't see where all non res drew bull tags though. I'm seeing 94 applied but 81 drew. Great odds, but I'm not seeing that everyone drew, where am I making a mistake there?

You are just looking at the applicants, not the results. There could be a handful of reasons that we won't know of why there are the disparities. If you look closer you will also see that a non-res with two points also did not draw. Maybe they were in as a group, or maybe they didn't pay, or maybe they who knows. All that really matters for analysis is what the bottom draw level was over the past few years.