DisplacedHusky
Lil-Rokslider
- Joined
- Sep 28, 2023
- Messages
- 133
It has been approximately 16 years since the 6.5 Creedmoor was introduced. I would like start a discussion about predicting the future. What cartridges can you see being released in the next 15 years that will be a commercial success? Please take a minute to read the rest of the question before answering because I will place some guideposts on the responses.
Plenty of cartridges have been released in the past 15 years that have either died out, been barely kept afloat by reloaders, or are hanging on with limited ammo sales and rifle offerings. This begs a look at what market and social dynamics have carried cartridges of the past to commercial and lasting success.
The U.S. Military’s adoption of cartridges has gone a long way toward the success of various cartridges. After two World Wars, the 30-06 was familiar to many soldiers who came home and used the round for hunting and target shooting in surplus rifles that they could sporterize for their needs. The 30-06 spawned many successful offspring that found commercial success including the .270 Winchester, and the 25-06 Remington.
The military/and NATO’s adoption of the .308 Winchester/7.62x51mm also provided a similar pathway for commercial success for the cartridge and the family it spawned including the 7mm-08 and the .243 Winchester. Much of the same story can be told about the .223/5.45x45mm and the resulting .300 Blackout and .204 Ruger.
Will the adoption of the .277 SIG Fury/6.8x51mm by the U.S. Army greenlight its success as with previous military cartridges or will the hybrid case and other market factors limit its civilian market profitability?
Some of the above cartridges began as wildcats of the military parent case before they were SAAMI approved and brought into commercial production. Besides the military adoption route, what other factors can yield a commercially successful cartridge? I was not around when the 7mm Rem Mag was introduced in 1962 but I would be interested in hearing from some of the old timers about what factors led to its initial and lasting success. The short magnums had their run and 300 WSM (introduced in 2001) seems to be the only one with real commercial staying power. At this point, I would be remis without mentioning the elephant in the room that has been Hornady for the past 15 years. The 6.5 Creedmor may have started their meteoric but it might also had the benefit of some good timing. Long range shooting was beginning to take off and the Precision Rifles Series formalized their rules in 2012 allowing for a shooting sport in need of a factory cartridge possessing what the 6.5 Creedmor had to offer. The recipe started by Hornady with modern case designs and heavy for caliber, high BC bullets took off, appealing to long range shooters and hunters alike. Cartridges from Hornady using similar theory have come along steadily including the 6.5 PRC, 300 PRC, 6mm Creedmor, 6 ARC, the 7 PRC and now the 22 ARC. Hornady’s marketing prowess along with their relationships with rifle manufacturers have driven many of these to commercial success.
Rules and regulations can also drive innovation. States with straight wall cartridge hunting regulations have spawned a recent slew of cartridges including the 350 Legend, the 360 Buckammer, and the 400 Legend. However, I do not believe there will be a large enough market to support all these cartridges. Will the early introduction of the 350 Legend allow for the head start it needs to outlast those that followed? And yes, I know the 45-70 has been around before the 350 Legend was even a twinkle in some ballistician’s eye.
The sunset of the Assault Weapons Ban in 2004 initiated the growth in popularity of the AR-15 platform. This provided a market for additional cartridges that can be chambered in this style of rifle. The 300 Blackout, the 6.8 SPC, the 6.5 Grendel, the 6 ARC, the .224 Valkyrie, the 300 HAM’R, the .50 Beowolf, and the 450 Bushmaster are only a few. Some estimates put the number of AR-15 platform rifles owned in the U.S. at 20 million. I believe that is more than enough of a market to support several successful cartridges for that platform. But, which ones will stand the test of time with market share and longevity?
Plenty of cartridges that I find intriguing have been released in the past 15 with little commercial success like the .338 Federal and the 30 T/C. Cartridges like the 6.8 Western also have some positive commercial qualities but seem to be struggling to hold onto market share.
***For the purposes of this discussion, let’s limit the prognostication to potential future cartridges that will primarily be used in bolt-action rifles for the purposes of hunting or shooting sports. The Fudds will say that we don’t need any new rounds and that the (insert old cartridge here) can do everything that the new one can. There may not be a practical need for the cartridge, but history suggests that there will be new cartridges introduced in the next 15 years and at least some of them will be commercially successful. Where is there space in the market for a new cartridge to have commercial success and what factors do you think will promote and influence that success?***
Plenty of cartridges have been released in the past 15 years that have either died out, been barely kept afloat by reloaders, or are hanging on with limited ammo sales and rifle offerings. This begs a look at what market and social dynamics have carried cartridges of the past to commercial and lasting success.
The U.S. Military’s adoption of cartridges has gone a long way toward the success of various cartridges. After two World Wars, the 30-06 was familiar to many soldiers who came home and used the round for hunting and target shooting in surplus rifles that they could sporterize for their needs. The 30-06 spawned many successful offspring that found commercial success including the .270 Winchester, and the 25-06 Remington.
The military/and NATO’s adoption of the .308 Winchester/7.62x51mm also provided a similar pathway for commercial success for the cartridge and the family it spawned including the 7mm-08 and the .243 Winchester. Much of the same story can be told about the .223/5.45x45mm and the resulting .300 Blackout and .204 Ruger.
Will the adoption of the .277 SIG Fury/6.8x51mm by the U.S. Army greenlight its success as with previous military cartridges or will the hybrid case and other market factors limit its civilian market profitability?
Some of the above cartridges began as wildcats of the military parent case before they were SAAMI approved and brought into commercial production. Besides the military adoption route, what other factors can yield a commercially successful cartridge? I was not around when the 7mm Rem Mag was introduced in 1962 but I would be interested in hearing from some of the old timers about what factors led to its initial and lasting success. The short magnums had their run and 300 WSM (introduced in 2001) seems to be the only one with real commercial staying power. At this point, I would be remis without mentioning the elephant in the room that has been Hornady for the past 15 years. The 6.5 Creedmor may have started their meteoric but it might also had the benefit of some good timing. Long range shooting was beginning to take off and the Precision Rifles Series formalized their rules in 2012 allowing for a shooting sport in need of a factory cartridge possessing what the 6.5 Creedmor had to offer. The recipe started by Hornady with modern case designs and heavy for caliber, high BC bullets took off, appealing to long range shooters and hunters alike. Cartridges from Hornady using similar theory have come along steadily including the 6.5 PRC, 300 PRC, 6mm Creedmor, 6 ARC, the 7 PRC and now the 22 ARC. Hornady’s marketing prowess along with their relationships with rifle manufacturers have driven many of these to commercial success.
Rules and regulations can also drive innovation. States with straight wall cartridge hunting regulations have spawned a recent slew of cartridges including the 350 Legend, the 360 Buckammer, and the 400 Legend. However, I do not believe there will be a large enough market to support all these cartridges. Will the early introduction of the 350 Legend allow for the head start it needs to outlast those that followed? And yes, I know the 45-70 has been around before the 350 Legend was even a twinkle in some ballistician’s eye.
The sunset of the Assault Weapons Ban in 2004 initiated the growth in popularity of the AR-15 platform. This provided a market for additional cartridges that can be chambered in this style of rifle. The 300 Blackout, the 6.8 SPC, the 6.5 Grendel, the 6 ARC, the .224 Valkyrie, the 300 HAM’R, the .50 Beowolf, and the 450 Bushmaster are only a few. Some estimates put the number of AR-15 platform rifles owned in the U.S. at 20 million. I believe that is more than enough of a market to support several successful cartridges for that platform. But, which ones will stand the test of time with market share and longevity?
Plenty of cartridges that I find intriguing have been released in the past 15 with little commercial success like the .338 Federal and the 30 T/C. Cartridges like the 6.8 Western also have some positive commercial qualities but seem to be struggling to hold onto market share.
***For the purposes of this discussion, let’s limit the prognostication to potential future cartridges that will primarily be used in bolt-action rifles for the purposes of hunting or shooting sports. The Fudds will say that we don’t need any new rounds and that the (insert old cartridge here) can do everything that the new one can. There may not be a practical need for the cartridge, but history suggests that there will be new cartridges introduced in the next 15 years and at least some of them will be commercially successful. Where is there space in the market for a new cartridge to have commercial success and what factors do you think will promote and influence that success?***
