Draw odds: which one is accurate?

bettstg

Junior Member
Joined
Apr 22, 2013
Messages
28
I just finished up my NM elk/deer applications yesterday and have been pondering something for the past couple months while researching units. If you compare various services, how do they come up with drastically different odds?

Purely as an example, the first unit in Eastmans NM mule deer MRS is the 2b early rifle, and they are stating odds of 9% for a NR. The same hunt on gohunt.com is 13%. This isn't the only unit where i've noticed difference, I see massive swings, one tag was 33% in a one service, and 4% on the other.

I know the NM system is very complicated, but does anyone better educated on numbers/systems know which one is more accurate? Or a better service?



Second question, do any of the other states have the same issues?
 

jlhois

Senior Member
Joined
May 9, 2015
Messages
374
Location
Boise
I used Eastman's for two years but made the switch to goHunt this year. When I was just looking for my home state MRS was good, but as I expanded to multiple states something more flexible was needed to parse the data. Ideally, I needed to customize/filter to what I wanted to hunt.

Couple reasons why I did this, 2nd one is my opinion to who has better odds.

#1 The filtering tool. My goals are different and have a platform that allows me to narrow down exactly what I am looking for allows me more time to research the chosen Unit vs. finding it.
#2 Draw odds...I don't have the data on why or if goHunts odds are better, but my confidence level in their process is much higher than the other services I considered. Spoke to their guys on multiple occasions to review the process they are using and I do feel confident that while the data is not perfect, it is the best draw odds available. The end goal is predictive odds, which is a game changer, if possible.
#3 Customer Service....Extremely responsive and incredibly knowledgeable about any and all questions I asked. Even when it comes to some issues I have had, Unit information outdated, it was addressed immediately.

Hope that helps.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

NoWiser

Senior Member
Joined
Aug 15, 2013
Messages
202
Use Gohunt or Toprut for NM. Eastmans will not give you the most accurate odds. I believe they do tag numbers divided by applicants which does not work for the NM draw.
 

Beendare

Senior Member
Joined
May 6, 2014
Messages
3,188
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In Traffic
I think you have to view these odds publications as a "Guestimate"...as thats exactly what it is.

There are a lot of things they cannot account for year to year for example, guys waiting to put in until they think they have enough points to draw. They can't tell you who and with how many points will put in next year.

Then there is the inherit inaccuracy of calcing odds with various degrees of pref/bonus points...the math is only going to be as accurate as the data supplied.
 

bobhunts

Senior Member
Joined
Jun 16, 2012
Messages
963
Location
Colorado Springs,Co.
Don't forget what hunting publications do to draw odds. If they put it in print people believe it. This year is a good example. Read Eastmans and they tell you not to apply for any unit requiring 5 or more PP's this year due to the snowpack. At least I think that was what I read. Not so everywhere. Talk to people on the ground.
 

wapitibob

Senior Member
Joined
Feb 24, 2012
Messages
2,184
Location
Bend Oregon
Gohunt and Toprut both use the applicant database from the NM game dept. It appears they have slightly different draw modeling but having the database and running it thousands of times, their 1st choice odds are as close as you can get. Understand those odds are for the 2016 draw.
 
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