Mathematicians Wanted: Nevada Mule Deer Odds

[Jaden Bales]

How would one calculate the odds of drawing 1 of your 5 choices in Nevada?

Better question, what are the odds anyone wants to try and tackle this math?

Here's the situation.

I got all trigger happy and applied for Nevada before mapping out my hunting budget for the year. Went to get a refund (since app date is April 29) and that is not possible. Totally get it. No problems there. So, I'll stick with my plan to try and pull a tag and if I do, I'll just sell my body or something to make sure I can go. No problems there either.

Now, I am trying to figure out what the chances of drawing just ANY of my units using GoHunt's per unit draw odds and costing me another...costing me a good chunk of change to do the hunt.

I come up with the following formula using this article: https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/91998/probability-of-winning-a-prize-in-a-raffle

C = Individual Unit Draw Odds
5 = Total Draw Choices

(C1 + C2 + C3 + C4 + C5)/5 = Average Draw Odds (ADO)

1 - ADO = Average Fail Odds (AFO)

(AFO)^5 = Odds of Failing to Draw (OFD)

1 - OFD = Odds of Drawing Tag

Bottom Line: If your 5 choices average out to 10% draw odds, you actually have 40% draw odds of pulling ONE tag of the 5 that year.

Does that make sense to anybody?

 

[ozyclint]

 

[Jaden Bales]

Yes! One of the best movie clips of all time.

 

[elkstabber]

I took Statistics a long time ago so maybe you're right. However, I've only viewed my NV odds as being for the easiest to draw unit. I'm only viewing this as drawing any tag, not a specific tag. This makes sense to me because you should put your choices in order of how hard they are to draw. Maybe you put them in order of your actual preference for the units and that's fine too.

Bottom line, your total draw odds of drawing a tag will be your draw odds of drawing the easiest tag.

 

[Foldem]

I'm not a mathematician but I know you can change your application to extremely hard to draw or preference points only before the due date if you don't want to take the chance.

 

[Jaden Bales]

I took Statistics a long time ago so maybe you're right. However, I've only viewed my NV odds as being for the easiest to draw unit. I'm only viewing this as drawing any tag, not a specific tag. This makes sense to me because you should put your choices in order of how hard they are to draw. Maybe you put them in order of your actual preference for the units and that's fine too.

Bottom line, your total draw odds of drawing a tag will be your draw odds of drawing the easiest tag.

I roughly did apply for hardest to draw first, with slight priority to one easier to draw unit at like 3rd choice because it's got the terrain I'm looking for.

Your approach is probably the safest approach - just assume your chance of drawing is the drawing odds of your easiest to draw tag. And there's some weird math deal that says while my raffle-style math gives an overall drawing odd, your odds to draw each tag individually are just whatever each tag's odds are. They don't go up.

It's the same reason why putting in for 10 1% draw units in 10 different states doesn't mean you have a 10% chance of drawing, though we'd like to think so.

 

[Jaden Bales]

I'm not a mathematician but I know you can change your application to extremely hard to draw or preference points only before the due date if you don't want to take the chance.

Hahah. Yeah... While that probably makes most financial sense, I really really do want to hunt Nevada this year and will figure out how to make it happen if I draw.

 

[MuleyFever]

Nevada draw odds are actually pretty easy to figure out. First you add, no first you divide the...wait... here it is...I had it written down already from last year...you have next to no chance, squared.

 

[5MilesBack]

Does that make sense to anybody?

No, that's not how it works. You don't want a mathematician, you want a statistician.

 

[Brendan]

Bottom Line: If your 5 choices average out to 10% draw odds, you actually have 40% draw odds of pulling ONE tag of the 5 that year.

Don't think it works that way, variables aren't fully independent. They don't draw for one unit, and then start over and draw for another unit.

To calculate real probability, you'd probably need to build a simulation model of sorts. (LP, Monte Carlo, etc.)

 

[Jaden Bales]

No, that's not how it works. You don't want a mathematician, you want a statistician.

Lol. Oh! Good to know... you got one handy??

 

[Jaden Bales]

Don't think it works that way, variables aren't fully independent. They don't draw for one unit, and then start over and draw for another unit.

To calculate real probability, you'd probably need to build a simulation model of sorts. (LP, Monte Carlo, etc.)

Sweet!! That's what I was really wondering....if I had to run a simulation or if this simpler formula could do the trick.

I'm going to dive in a little deeper to formulate a model with the draw odds... And I'll probably enlist my econ PhD girlfriend to lend a hand. Hopefully, we can come up with something more accurate with something like a Monte Carlo model.

 

[Brendan]

Sweet!! That's what I was really wondering....if I had to run a simulation or if this simpler formula could do the trick.

I'm going to dive in a little deeper to formulate a model with the draw odds... And I'll probably enlist my econ PhD girlfriend to lend a hand. Hopefully, we can come up with something more accurate with something like a Monte Carlo model.

If you want to do it for curiosity - go for it. I've thought of doing something similar. But, in all honesty if you want to try to draw - you're better off taking a game theory approach and applying for all the units you don't think other people are going to apply for (i.e. - the crappy (for Nevada) ones)

 

[Jaden Bales]

If you want to do it for curiosity - go for it. I've thought of doing something similar. But, in all honesty if you want to try to draw - you're better off taking a game theory approach and applying for all the units you don't think other people are going to apply for (i.e. - the crappy (for Nevada) ones)

I hear ya! Weirdly, I liked Game Theory. Only class I ever got the same grade as my lady in. Lol.

Good thinking. Thanks!

 

[street]

You are on the right track. If you're that interested in figuring it out, just study probability theory. I don't know how the Nevada draw system works, but if you have the draw odds statistics, probability theory is all you need to figure it out. You don't need a sophisticated mathematical model. The formulas you posted tells me you're on the right track. If you want some detailed help just PM me (I have a background in mathematics and physics).

 

[Jaden Bales]

You are on the right track. If you're that interested in figuring it out, just study probability theory. I don't know how the Nevada draw system works, but if you have the draw odds statistics, probability theory is all you need to figure it out. You don't need a sophisticated mathematical model. The formulas you posted tells me you're on the right track. If you want some detailed help just PM me (I have a background in mathematics and physics).

Awesome! Thanks for that and good to hear!

I'm going to screw around with it a bit more. This opened a can of worms about their draw system that my pea brain was not prepared for. Lol.

 

[sneaky]

Show me five units in Nevada where you have 10% draw odds all at the same point level. Speaking of, you didn't mention how many points you have..... and you aren't factoring in people jumping in who have only been accumulating points without applying.

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[Jaden Bales]

Show me five units in Nevada where you have 10% draw odds all at the same point level. Speaking of, you didn't mention how many points you have..... and you aren't factoring in people jumping in who have only been accumulating points without applying.

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8 of them according to GoHunt with 0 points...which is how many I don't have.

And definitely, people could jump in or jump out. That's the risk of trying to calculate all state's draw odds. They're representative of the previous year, never predictive of the following.

 

[slick]

Couldn’t you look at the increase in tag applicants per unit over X years maybe in correlation to tag availability and produce the probability of X # of applicants per X number of tags? Does that make sense?

Not a math wizard by any means, but just got the wheels spinning a bit.

 

[Jaden Bales]

Couldn’t you look at the increase in tag applicants per unit over X years maybe in correlation to tag availability and produce the probability of X # of applicants per X number of tags? Does that make sense?

Not a math wizard by any means, but just got the wheels spinning a bit.

Yeah I was JUST trying to do something like that... It's good thinkin!

I'm gonna give it a shot but it'll be cool to see if it's helpful or not. Most units I am looking at increased applicants 45-70% from 2017-18, though applications were fairly flat prior to that.

The outlier year last year kinda screws a guy's calculations since now there's a wave of new applicants and you don't know if they will stay in the game or drop out for some reason. But who knows! Could be helpful!