South Dakota Deer Draw

[Lytro]

Ehd killed the deer in mass numbers last two years here in both dewey and corson. I have alot of friends and my brother in law ranches and the number of dead deer found during harvest last year was crazy. Add the reservation lack of management on top of that and most of those nr think they can hunt any land with the res tag and the deer numbers here are way down. I live 10 minutes from where i would hunt west river and 3 minutes east river and spend hours between driving for work and scouting for ducks and geese and every one in my group is all amazed at the lack of deer on both sides of the river. Father in law has lived here his whole life and says its as bad as he has ever seen.

That's interesting. I would have thought those herds would be more tolerant to EHD that close to the river. Other than the res, has the hunting pressure noticeably increased over recent years?

 

[Tman24]

6 points couldn’t get me a WR tag

 

[Lytro]

6 points couldn’t get me a WR tag

What unit?

 

[Tman24]

What unit?

One that I didn’t draw last year with 5 points… They also increased the tags this year.

 

[Lytro]

One that I didn’t draw last year with 5 points… They also increased the tags this year.

I only asked because I was curious to see what the draw stats were, but assuming you're a NR I'm guessing either 35L, 35A, or 02C.

 

[Tman24]

I only asked because I was curious to see what the draw stats were, but assuming you're a NR I'm guessing either 35L, 35A, or 02C.

Draw stats are frustrating for SD. It’s really a bonus point system that now squares the points.

 

[Lytro]

Draw stats are frustrating for SD. It’s really a bonus point system that now squares the points.

It makes it interesting once you have 2+ points, but it's tough to watch when a lesser point group ends up with better draw odds. 0 for 3 with 7 points is brutal when you have 28 tags issued to people with less points.

 

[KurtR]

That's interesting. I would have thought those herds would be more tolerant to EHD that close to the river. Other than the res, has the hunting pressure noticeably increased over recent years?

No it’s gone down a bunch with the cut in tags the past few years. A couple years ago they let people return tags for a refund Ehd was so bad. In 2009 they were handing triple tags out like candy and back then there was way more pressure

 

[Andrew12gauge]

Draw stats are frustrating for SD. It’s really a bonus point system that now squares the points.

View attachment 570175

Actually they cube them, I ran the numbers for the unit I applied in and the “chances” in the 6 point group were like 1800, 5 point group 1700 and 3 point group like 700 but somehow the 3 and 6 point groups drew the same number of tags while the 5 point group drew more than either of them. It seems real strange to me how the point groups with the most chances don’t seem to draw the majority of the tags.


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[sambo3006]

No dice for me either on BH or WR with 3 points as a NR. But you gotta be in it to win it.

 

[Fatcamp]

Actually they cube them, I ran the numbers for the unit I applied in and the “chances” in the 6 point group were like 1800, 5 point group 1700 and 3 point group like 700 but somehow the 3 and 6 point groups drew the same number of tags while the 5 point group drew more than either of them. It seems real strange to me how the point groups with the most chances don’t seem to draw the majority of the tags.


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It's a lottery. A game of chance played by a computer.

They cubed points because all the old guys with elk points kept whining about not drawing a tag. Never mind that most of them have had several elk tags over the years, and almost none of them understand how the draw works. Now they really don't understand how it works!

My wife built an Excel spread sheet when they were asking for comments and told them this wouldn't solve anything. Now the same group is crying about not drawing tags again. "I've got 25 points in the park! Where's my tag!!!! " LOL

 

[Andrew12gauge]

It's a lottery. A game of chance played by a computer.

They cubed points because all the old guys with elk points kept whining about not drawing a tag. Never mind that most of them have had several elk tags over the years, and almost none of them understand how the draw works. Now they really don't understand how it works!

My wife built an Excel spread sheet when they were asking for comments and told them this wouldn't solve anything. Now the same group is crying about not drawing tags again. "I've got 25 points in the park! Where's my tag!!!! " LOL

I totally understand it is a game of chance, however when you look at the number of people at a given point level and add them all up there are still statistical probabilities as to what point levels tags should be drawn at. I’m not gonna go back and find exact numbers but if I remember right 2 years ago, the unit I put in for had 9 people at 4 points, 12 at 3, and 6 at 2 so in the point pools you have 576 chances in the 4 point pool, 324 in the 3 point pool and 48 in the 2 point pool, it then becomes real hard to believe when 5 of 8 tags end up being drawn at that 2 point level. At some point in the point game ponzi scheme it is understandable when a lower point level draws, I’ll use the state of Washington for an example, my dad is at max points on mt goat and moose but about 5 years after he started applying they stopped requiring upfront money and there was a glut of new applicants(1500 or more) so while my dad is one of the 2 or 3 folks left at max points it doesn’t matter, his odds go down every year because despite him having 29 or 30 points there are so many applicants at the 24-25 point level that the total number of names in the bucket goes up each year, however I am continually baffled as to how the point levels with less chances in the bucket continues to draw the majority of tags


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[Fatcamp]

I totally understand it is a game of chance, however when you look at the number of people at a given point level and add them all up there are still statistical probabilities as to what point levels tags should be drawn at. I’m not gonna go back and find exact numbers but if I remember right 2 years ago, the unit I put in for had 9 people at 4 points, 12 at 3, and 6 at 2 so in the point pools you have 576 chances in the 4 point pool, 324 in the 3 point pool and 48 in the 2 point pool, it then becomes real hard to believe when 5 of 8 tags end up being drawn at that 2 point level. At some point in the point game ponzi scheme it is understandable when a lower point level draws, I’ll use the state of Washington for an example, my dad is at max points on mt goat and moose but about 5 years after he started applying they stopped requiring upfront money and there was a glut of new applicants(1500 or more) so while my dad is one of the 2 or 3 folks left at max points it doesn’t matter, his odds go down every year because despite him having 29 or 30 points there are so many applicants at the 24-25 point level that the total number of names in the bucket goes up each year, however I am continually baffled as to how the point levels with less chances in the bucket continues to draw the majority of tags


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If it baffles you think about how the people who dreamed up this racket must feel. I bet there have been some very interesting staff meetings around this very issue.

 

[TheGrayRider]

Credit card hit. Hunting West of the Missouri River again in November. Take what tags you can get in this day and age. Happy hunting, TheGrayRider.

 

[Lytro]

If it baffles you think about how the people who dreamed up this racket must feel. I bet there have been some very interesting staff meetings around this very issue.

I honestly don't mind it. People actually apply for the tag instead of solely buying points for 15+ years before they attempt to draw for the first time. Although there are no guarantees, you don't have the point creep other states are experiencing where eventually people will never be able to draw in their lifetime.

 

[Fatcamp]

I honestly don't mind it. People actually apply for the tag instead of solely buying points for 15+ years before they attempt to draw for the first time. Although there are no guarantees, you don't have the point creep other states are experiencing where eventually people will never be able to draw in their lifetime.

What I'm referring to is that this was pitched as helping the top point holders draw their tag. There are just so many people with 10-20 points it doesn't matter, they get pushed out by sheer volume.

There are so many people with between 10 and 20 points that anyone trying to start now is gonna be in a hopeless position. Very few people go out of the draw, but they all gain another point making their market share even larger. They have created a position where new people will never be able to draw a tag.

 

[Lytro]

There are so many people with between 10 and 20 points that anyone trying to start now is gonna be in a hopeless position. Very few people go out of the draw, but they all gain another point making their market share even larger. They have created a position where new people will never be able to draw a tag.

I'd consider those statements to be the best argument for why cubed points are better. Everyone with 2+ points has a chance. A standard draw would mean 0% chance to anyone under 20 points right now. That minimum would get higher and higher every year with the volume of people between 10-20 right now.

IMO, SD any elk tags should be 100% lottery once-in-a-lifetime hunts for non-landowners if they want to make it "fair". Go to a standard preference point draw for cow tags.

 

[Andrew12gauge]

What I'm referring to is that this was pitched as helping the top point holders draw their tag. There are just so many people with 10-20 points it doesn't matter, they get pushed out by sheer volume.

There are so many people with between 10 and 20 points that anyone trying to start now is gonna be in a hopeless position. Very few people go out of the draw, but they all gain another point making their market share even larger. They have created a position where new people will never be able to draw a tag.

That’s the issue with point systems in general, but the issue of why a point pool with lower points and less overall chances are drawing more than a higher point pool with more chances is still not fathomable to me. As an example 15A any deer, nonresident 1 applicant with 8 pts drew, then 9 applicants with 6 pts(6x6x6=216x9 applicants=1944 chances) those applicants draw 4 tags so 4/1944=.002 so only .2% of their chances hit meanwhile we go to the 4 pt pool and you have 12 applicants(4x4x4=64x12 applicants=768 chances) those 12 applicants drew 6 tags so 6/768=.0078 meaning almost .8% of those chances in the draw hit. Even if you go just on raw numbers 50% of people at 4 points hit and 44.4% with 6 points hit. Either they aren’t cubing the points(only squaring them?) or the odds just truly keep falling the wrong way.


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[Fatcamp]

I'd consider those statements to be the best argument for why cubed points are better. Everyone with 2+ points has a chance. A standard draw would mean 0% chance to anyone under 20 points right now. That minimum would get higher and higher every year with the volume of people between 10-20 right now.

IMO, SD any elk tags should be 100% lottery once-in-a-lifetime hunts for non-landowners if they want to make it "fair". Go to a standard preference point draw for cow tags.

The way they had it before where one point was one ticket in the draw was perfectly reasonable. They changed it to appease the good Ole boys and have screwed over anyone new.

I agree that changes should be made, but at this point SDGFP has made it clear where there loyalties lie. In the end it doesn't matter to people like us, we are smart enough and have the resources to hunt where we want.

 

[Fatcamp]

That’s the issue with point systems in general, but the issue of why a point pool with lower points and less overall chances are drawing more than a higher point pool with more chances is still not fathomable to me. As an example 15A any deer, nonresident 1 applicant with 8 pts drew, then 9 applicants with 6 pts(6x6x6=216x9 applicants=1944 chances) those applicants draw 4 tags so 4/1944=.002 so only .2% of their chances hit meanwhile we go to the 4 pt pool and you have 12 applicants(4x4x4=64x12 applicants=768 chances) those 12 applicants drew 6 tags so 6/768=.0078 meaning almost .8% of those chances in the draw hit. Even if you go just on raw numbers 50% of people at 4 points hit and 44.4% with 6 points hit. Either they aren’t cubing the points(only squaring them?) or the odds just truly keep falling the wrong way.


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Well, I drew two great tags this year so they are obviously doing something right.