South Dakota Deer Draw

[LongWayAround]

That’s the issue with point systems in general, but the issue of why a point pool with lower points and less overall chances are drawing more than a higher point pool with more chances is still not fathomable to me. As an example 15A any deer, nonresident 1 applicant with 8 pts drew, then 9 applicants with 6 pts(6x6x6=216x9 applicants=1944 chances) those applicants draw 4 tags so 4/1944=.002 so only .2% of their chances hit meanwhile we go to the 4 pt pool and you have 12 applicants(4x4x4=64x12 applicants=768 chances) those 12 applicants drew 6 tags so 6/768=.0078 meaning almost .8% of those chances in the draw hit. Even if you go just on raw numbers 50% of people at 4 points hit and 44.4% with 6 points hit. Either they aren’t cubing the points(only squaring them?) or the odds just truly keep falling the wrong way.


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Look at something with more tags. I quickly browsed the draw results and it looked that often high point holders got tags and the rest were mostly distributed in the middle tier. The few I looked at weren't surprising to me.

 

[jmez]

I'd consider those statements to be the best argument for why cubed points are better. Everyone with 2+ points has a chance. A standard draw would mean 0% chance to anyone under 20 points right now. That minimum would get higher and higher every year with the volume of people between 10-20 right now.

IMO, SD any elk tags should be 100% lottery once-in-a-lifetime hunts for non-landowners if they want to make it "fair". Go to a standard preference point draw for cow tags.

Everyone had a chance before. The sole reason they changed it was too many guys with little bto no points were drawing tags.

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[Greenduck18]

That’s the issue with point systems in general, but the issue of why a point pool with lower points and less overall chances are drawing more than a higher point pool with more chances is still not fathomable to me. As an example 15A any deer, nonresident 1 applicant with 8 pts drew, then 9 applicants with 6 pts(6x6x6=216x9 applicants=1944 chances) those applicants draw 4 tags so 4/1944=.002 so only .2% of their chances hit meanwhile we go to the 4 pt pool and you have 12 applicants(4x4x4=64x12 applicants=768 chances) those 12 applicants drew 6 tags so 6/768=.0078 meaning almost .8% of those chances in the draw hit. Even if you go just on raw numbers 50% of people at 4 points hit and 44.4% with 6 points hit. Either they aren’t cubing the points(only squaring them?) or the odds just truly keep falling the wrong way.


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You need to add in your current year application to figure out how many times your name is in the draw. So if you had 2 points, you'd take 3x3x3=27.

Since the draw is randomized, you need to look at the occurrences independently. You also have to take in account that as the draw is done, then there are less names in the draw as people get tags, thus changing the odds. I attached an example of how that may look, it is on a much smaller scale though. There also is a different amount of tags offered to each "pool" whether it be the landowner pool, 2+ pool, 1+pool, 0+ pool. Each pool is then grouped into it's own random draw. I also attach where I found that info. They are cubing the points, it just isn't that simple to figure out the odds of drawing for each preference point group.

 

[Dakota_Rookie]

Didn’t first choice WR or an any whitetail tag. First year I’ve not drawn either. Buddy drew his any deer WR tag so I’ll be helping him out with that.

ER didn’t draw first choice but pulled an antlerless tag to help fill the freezer.


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