Colorado not finalizing tag quotas until after entry deadline??!

[Overdrive]

If it was me I wouldn't come here to find the answer. I can find better results on the CPW website and look up last years numbers to help in my decision.

 

[CorbLand]

They changed. They had them posted. Then changed them. So what once said I had 100% chance magically dropped to 60%.

So you can’t even trust the resources you pay for.


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Would you rather them have left it at 100% even though it’s really 60%?

 

[WeiserBucks]

I'm just surprised that people pay $$$ to access draw odds.

 

[Jethro]

They changed. They had them posted. Then changed them. So what once said I had 100% chance magically dropped to 60%.

So you can’t even trust the resources you pay for.


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Most likely the odds were 100% in 2022 and 60% in 2023. Didn’t they just recently update their data?

They can’t tell your odds for this years draw. Don’t know quotas, don’t know number of applicants. Can’t compute odds without those two parts of the equation.

 

[Hnthrdr]

Yeah I’m thinking about applying for first rifle and I’m very curious how many tags they will give out. Not sure if I should preemptively switch up tags or not.

It’s always a gamble… but who knows lots of folks may apply else where… tough if that is a place that you are familiar with. Hard to replace knowledge base

 

[Phaseolus]

Most likely the odds were 100% in 2022 and 60% in 2023. Didn’t they just recently update their data?

They can’t tell your odds for this years draw. Don’t know quotas, don’t know number of applicants. Can’t compute odds without those two parts of the equation.

Perhaps the draw odds change is reflecting that NR will get 10% fewer first choice licenses this year.

 

[Mighty Mouse]

They changed. They had them posted. Then changed them. So what once said I had 100% chance magically dropped to 60%.

So you can’t even trust the resources you pay for.


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Colorado's nonresident allocation change (35% to 25%) was announced 9 days ago. That could have caused the decrease you saw in predicted draw odds.

 

[Jethro]

 

[Fever Buck]

Colorado's nonresident allocation change (35% to 25%) was announced 9 days ago. That could have caused the decrease you saw in predicted draw odds.

Perhaps the draw odds change is reflecting that NR will get 10% fewer first choice licenses this year.

I don’t believe any of the hunting odds websites use assumed future data. It’s all based off the prior seasons stats that provided by the state.