How Accurate are CO Harvest Stats?

[apkleinschmidt]

Another thread on OTC overcrowding due to new draw units has me thinking... How accurate are CO's harvest stats (across the board) and hunters per unit stats (in OTC)?

Without mandatory harvest reports, I don't see how they could be accurate. I assume for OTC they take overall tag numbers and cross reference those with surveys?

Curious if anyone has vetted their numbers to see how close they are?

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[Billy Goat]

I think it's something like 60k surveys that they use to extrapolate the numbers. I don't know if it's 60k out of total licenses or not (big game, small game, or possibly only elk). Might be off on the 60k too. I think since 2007 I have only been contacted once.

 

[Gerbdog]

It's interesting how infrequently people get contacted for the survey. I have been contacted every year for the past 4 years, and every time I let them know how crowded the woods were!

 

[Beendare]

I think they are accurate enough to make a decision.

A few % points of success rate wouldn't sway me to a particular unit over another.

 

[BigAntlerGetter]

Personally I have been called on every tag I’ve bought for a long time, except my bear tags, due to the fact that they already know your success on a bear and location of harvest. Bear should be 100% accurate as long as your information when you got it sealed was accurate.

As far as every other species it comes down to who did and did not do the survey. I believe (not 100% sure) anyone can get online and do the survey, they just pick out people to call. I encourage all my clients to report back regardless to help with their information but I’d say it’s most likely 75% accurate. I’m not sure why people would lie in the surveys unless they were doing something illegal anyways but why would you even do the survey if you were doing it illegal.


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[ChrisAU]

I've been twice and have not been called yet.

 

[Marble]

Ive been contacted several times but not each year. Without mandatory reporting I don't see how it can be totally accurate.

 

[sndmn11]

I can't remember a year when I haven't gotten an email asking me to take a survey for every species I had a license for except bear. My wife is the same.

 

[cnelk]

How accurate are the CPW harvest stats?

IMO - About as accurate as the COVID 19 stats.

 

[apkleinschmidt]

^^^ I laughed haha

 

[mlgc20]

My guess is that they are plenty accurate enough for hunters to make decisions. I'm skeptical that mandatory harvest reports really are that much more accurate. I'm sure they have some competent statisticians figuring it all out. IMO, the important thing is that they keep the methodology (whatever it is) relatively stable. Then you can reasonably look at trends over time and see where the changes are occurring. This type of statistical extrapolation is used commonly in all parts of our life (Ex: vaccine clinical trials, herd estimates, tag quotas, etc.). I'm comfortable taking the Colorado numbers at face value. FWIW, my daughter and I were both surveyed last year.

 

[Overdrive]

CPW uses the SWAG method for harvest and herd counts.
SWAG= Scientific Wild Ass Guess!!

 

[Boonjg]

They call me every year with survey questions, I just assumed they did the same thing with everyone.

 

[Poser]

At the meetings I’ve been to, the biologists express great confidence in their #s.

 

[satchamo]

I will never under why they don’t require it. I’ve had to check in every animal I’ve ever killed I the Midwest. I get that some areas are too remote but give folks a 10 day grace period or something to call it in when they get into service. I guarantee that would instantly make their numbers a fair amount more accurate.

I mean I imagine there are PLENTY of unreported harvests just from guys not wanting their area or units to get too much attention.

 

[Whiskey_Fish]

I will never under why they don’t require it.

I imagine it would cost a fortune to run at that scale. Golden Gate Canyon SP isn’t gonna pay for itself.


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[Catahoula]

I’ve been contacted every year I’ve been issued a tag.

 

[RCB]

Don’t need to sample the whole population to get a pretty accurate picture. I wouldn’t worry about that. Now, if people are downright lying in the surveys, that would be a problem.

 

[cnelk]

If just a sample size was sufficient, why would some states require mandatory harvest reporting?

 

[orionthehunter1]

Straight off the CPW website 233,000 elk licenses sold 61,000 surveyed. That's not going to be accurate when you are guessing on most of the numbers. There is a reason we are in this mess with elk. A lot of it has to do with inaccurate herd counts, harvest stats, and exactly how many hunters are in OTC units.