Is the western hunting bubble bursting? (Or at least shrinking?)

[Jbehredt]

A) It’s roughly a 5% decrease in apps after things had been steadily increasing the last few years, then topped out the last two years at 31k. Does it mean we’re gonna see leftover tags again next year? Probably not. But it’s not insignificant either. 2025 will tell the story if it is a trend or a one off.

That’s the other thing, for preference points, Montana makes you apply every year or lose points now. That was the biggest reason odds improved IMO.

Bonus points are a different story.

Anecdotally I’ve had several friends go on one or two hunts the past few years that have suddenly lost interest.

I know two new hunter Rogan disciples who didn’t bother to apply in CO this year. A dead grouse between them wasn’t enough content for the gram.

 

[CO Mountain Man]

It’s not a matter of continually increasing demand, it is a matter of reduced opportunity with consistent demand. CO is likely to get rid of archery OTC. That will funnel that many more people into 2nd/3rd season rifle or to other states (that require a draw) to keep going archery. Eventually the pressure on 2nd/3rd season will force CO to remove OTC for NRs. I don’t see where your optimism comes from or where you think you are going to be going elk hunting every single year as a NR. The gates are closing faster than you are bracing for.

 

[Fever Buck]

It’s not a matter of continually increasing demand, it is a matter of reduced opportunity with consistent demand. CO is likely to get rid of archery OTC. That will funnel that many more people into 2nd/3rd season rifle or to other states (that require a draw) to keep going archery. Eventually the pressure on 2nd/3rd season will force CO to remove OTC for NRs. I don’t see where your optimism comes from or where you think you are going to be going elk hunting every single year as a NR. The gates are closing faster than you are bracing for.

Idk if I’d say it’ll happen quick. CO has come out in support of keeping OTC for the rifle seasons for at least the next 5 years. Dont see them drastically changing anything anytime in the next decade. Unfortunately, they tipped their hand that they value max revenue for CPW instead of hunt quality when they posted their preferences to the committee.

 

[OKHunter84]

I've tried to get a few of my friends into western hunting so I could groom a hunting partner. Two of them dropped off when covid hit and money got a little tight. The other one has done a little hunting. I took him on a backpack bear hunt and he was not digging hiking in 8 miles while gaining 2500' of elevation with a heavy pack. I think there will be a lot of guys fall off going out west when tag prices get much higher. That being said, the lower supply of tags and habitat issues coupled with hard winters, I still think it will only get worse. More and more people are moving out west where it's easier and much cheaper to get tags, trying to get away from big cities. Wyoming might turn off folks with high NR tags but there will be more people moving there for OTC cheap resident tags and no state income tax, a lot of folks work from home.

Good old days are behind us boys.

 

[Scottf270]

If folks ever figure out the applications scam going on at Huntin Fool and WTA Tags we may see applications continue to drop. They encourage people to apply for everything because they pocket money for each and every entry.

They are right in, you can't draw if you don't apply, but most will never live long enough to draw. If hunters did their own math of their draw odds, they would realize they are throwing money away with zero chance to draw.

 

[BuckeyeRifleman]

Idk if I’d say it’ll happen quick. CO has come out in support of keeping OTC for the rifle seasons for at least the next 5 years. Dont see them drastically changing anything anytime in the next decade. Unfortunately, they tipped their hand that they value max revenue for CPW instead of hunt quality when they posted their preferences to the committee.

Yeah the nonresident cash now is never going away for these states.

That said I do worry about outfitter influence/preference in some states, particularly WY/MT. The outfitter organizations have way too much political pull.

 

[Bears]

Internet "influencers" ruin everything.

 

[Pro953]

Colorado data is interesting. I do not think the MT data is great as a lot of folks changed how they approached that state with the bonus point changes a couple of years ago. Though maybe the same could be said for CO and OTC tags/units.

I think if you see a YOY decline is a few states that do not have significant changes in the draw system, you might be able to read into it. Right now, a couple of data points is not really much of a trend.


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[CMF]

If folks ever figure out the applications scam going on at Huntin Fool and WTA Tags we may see applications continue to drop. They encourage people to apply for everything because they pocket money for each and every entry.

They are right in, you can't draw if you don't apply, but most will never live long enough to draw. If hunters did their own math of their draw odds, they would realize they are throwing money away with zero chance to draw.

If you want to hunt everything you have to apply for everything.
Certainly, Wyoming MSG is a 0% game for most, but at least other states that are in the %0.1 range for sheep etc usually have different species that combined make it worth applying for, UT comes to mind. And if you want to hunt DIY there really isn't much option. The application fee invested still wouldn't appreciate to the cost of sheep hunt. Maybe it would considering what the services charge, I don't know what they charge, I don't use a service, but I apply for a lot.

Which other hunts do you think people are applying for that is zero chance? Virginia Elk comes to mind.

 

[HONEYBADGER]

No you still have every service and influencer under the sun willing to hold people's hands and educate them step by step on how to do everything from put in for tags to cape a deer. People from Florida and Pennsylvania are driving to Nevada to hunt if they draw a tag. Its nuts. I dont think the genie is ever going back in the bottle.

New Mexico apps set another all time high record this year by about 3k I believe and that was on top of record numbers each of the two previous years....its not getting any better.

Edit:

New Mexico App Numbers : 2023 - 285k / 2024 - 288k

 

[Soj51hopeful]

I’ll throw my personal thought in here. I plan to quit building points in a few states once I burn them. 10 or so years ago I started chasing points and have had some good hunts, but with the cost of everything going up and quality of hunts going down I’m over it. I’ll stick with applying in my home state and maybe 2 others.

 

[Boarmaster]

Some people get all charged up on things like hunting. They get invited to go by a friend or start watching you tube content. They do it for a few years then move on to the next thing. So I don't doubt
you may be seeing this cycle.

I’m not in the west but I hunt the SE and a hunt every year in OH. From 1992-2000 we would have 20 or more guys in our group and another 20 guys in an other group from the same hometown that would go on the hunt in Southern Ohio. By 2021 we had about 4 guys total going down. Guys lost interest and some found hunting opportunities around their hometowns.

In our Alabama lease we have no problem filling our membership of 10 members every year and usually have people wanting in we dont have available memberships for. If someone drops out their membership is filled by a guest that was brought a few years by a member. When the economy crashes you find out pretty quick how dedicated the guys are to hunting.

Not everyone who takes up the sport will be a life long hunter or live the hunting lifestyle. Or even go every year.

 

[Rich M]

I’ll throw my personal thought in here. I plan to quit building points in a few states once I burn them. 10 or so years ago I started chasing points and have had some good hunts, but with the cost of everything going up and quality of hunts going down I’m over it. I’ll stick with applying in my home state and maybe 2 others.

That's what I always told folks and was considered a lunatic - buy points in the state you really want to hunt in. And only buy the points for what you want to hunt.

Just flinging money around for points to hunt anywhere isn't my style. Seems like a waste of money but if you gotta just hunt, have at it.